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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Brent said:
This whole winter cancel discussion reminds me of August when people thought there would be no hurricanes ?

I mean granted I live in a place that averages 9 inches of snow but like I know we're gonna get another one at some point
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Exactly my point
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Meh, I disagree. The left side in the circle is by far the coldest of phases. It is hard to have a torch with the MJO in the good phases. I believe either the models will cave or the MJO will not move into the left side of the circle.
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This exactly what I was trying to say earlier about expecting models to change. If we continue to see the MJO head towards 7/8 and the AO continue to take a dive in negative territory, I would expect us to start seeing a more favorable look in the ensembles
 






LarryCosgrove

@LarryCosgrove
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Let us go a little more in-depth about the upcoming sudden stratospheric warming event. With an add-on of how the Madden-Julian Oscillation could be an influence in getting a winter re-start in North America in the second half of the month. I realize wit…



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Larry Cosgrove on LinkedIn: Let us go a little more in-depth about the upcoming sudden stratosphe...
Let us go a little more in-depth about the upcoming sudden stratospheric warming event. With an add-on of how the Madden-Julian Oscillation could be an…
 
Chazwin said:
This exactly what I was trying to say earlier about expecting models to change. If we continue to see the MJO head towards 7/8 and the AO continue to take a dive in negative territory, I would expect us to start seeing a more favorable look in the ensembles
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I would expect it to trend to a favorable look at H5. But even with a good H5 there is no lower level cold to be had at first. But will that look hold long enough to get cross polar back in? Maybe who knows? The Larry Cosgrove post Frosty posted thinks so. We shall see.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I would expect it to trend to a favorable look at H5. But even with a good H5 there is no lower level cold to be had at first. But will that look hold long enough to get cross polar back in? Maybe who knows? The Larry Cosgrove post Frosty posted thinks so. We shall see.
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Even if we don’t see a full cross polar flow set up, we can still see something happen with airmass of a Canadian origin….especially at the peak climo times of mid to late January. That may not be good enough for folks south of the I-20 corridor but it certainly can work for our areas.
 
Areas in the CAD regions can absolutely get something even in SER as these things tend to trend to some type of CAD. Got to build a better 50/50 but I think we get a hit on something at least back this way and other CAD favorite areas. Problem is I think it’ll be ice and not snow.
 
iGRXY said:
Areas in the CAD regions can absolutely get something even in SER as these things tend to trend to some type of CAD. Got to build a better 50/50 but I think we get a hit on something at least back this way and other CAD favorite areas. Problem is I think it’ll be ice and not snow.
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February 1994 is a great example of how you can still get a major widespread winter storm across the south even with a strong SER. The ice/sleet with some snow that month occurred while Florida and southern GA were baking in record warmth.
 
Chazwin said:
Even if we don’t see a full cross polar flow set up, we can still see something happen with airmass of a Canadian origin….especially at the peak climo times of mid to late January. That may not be good enough for folks south of the I-20 corridor but it certainly can work for our areas.
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Chazwin said:
February 1994 is a great example of how you can still get a major widespread winter storm across the south even with a strong SER. The ice/sleet with some snow that month occurred while Florida and southern GA were baking in record warmth.
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Yeah, we don't need near 0 again, we just need 32 degrees, and 32 is pretty common in winter, even warm winters. It's timing that makes the difference.
 
BIG FROSTY said:

LarryCosgrove
@LarryCosgrove
·
28m

Let us go a little more in-depth about the upcoming sudden stratospheric warming event. With an add-on of how the Madden-Julian Oscillation could be an influence in getting a winter re-start in North America in the second half of the month. I realize wit…

linkedin.com
Larry Cosgrove on LinkedIn: Let us go a little more in-depth about the upcoming sudden stratosphe...
Let us go a little more in-depth about the upcoming sudden stratospheric warming event. With an add-on of how the Madden-Julian Oscillation could be an…
Click to expand...

We’re not even remotely close to seeing a sudden stratospheric warming event, in fact the vortex is much more likely to be record strong.





Just because you see some pretty warm colors on a map doesn’t mean that the vortex is either weakening or we’re getting a sudden stratospheric warming event.




Even if we get one, the odds of us seeing a good or better pattern from it are slim-none. Roughly half of the SSWEs don’t have any* significant impact on the troposphere, and the chances are even less likely in a La Niña when we don’t have a significant precursor -NAO.

This talk of some SSWE creating a favorable pattern for cold and snow in several weeks by weenies and Mets who don’t know what they’re talking about (like Larry Cosgrgove) is a total pipe dream.

 
Here’s the ensembles now vs what they had at 250 hours for 850 mb temp anomalies. Vastly different from there to now your 90. Lots can change as we head closer especially if it’s still 300+ hours away. Not crazy but it can make the difference between seeing wall to wall warmth to potentially getting colder air into the mix. We wait and watch and hope for the people who aren’t canceling winter on January 2nd. 2983FA7F-8EED-4B56-B8BC-169A644661EF.jpegC239FDA2-9288-4F66-B3BA-5797F9A0E9B0.jpegD1D5F17C-3D9A-48F6-B0D9-8105FB9B7A07.jpeg74D9AA5D-379A-4972-9F1C-981D10A5F61A.jpeg90691EC0-6B41-425C-9A9A-F619BDDE19E2.jpegE5BE8C39-9375-4AC9-9D4E-3E811F522ED6.jpeg
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Here’s the ensembles now vs what they had at 250 hours for 850 mb temp anomalies. Vastly different from there to now your 90. Lots can change as we head closer especially if it’s still 300+ hours away. Not crazy but it can make the difference between seeing wall to wall warmth to potentially getting colder air into the mix. We wait and watch and hope for the people who aren’t canceling winter on January 2nd. View attachment 129194View attachment 129195View attachment 129190View attachment 129191View attachment 129192View attachment 129193
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Without a true cold air source from the Arctic or Siberia, we’d probably just trend from cold rain to an even colder rain.
 
California will continue to get soaked for the foreseeable future. Objectively a good thing for their water supply and food prices at the grocery store, as most of the produce that’s grown in the CONUS comes from California’s San Joaquin Valley. Oth, gas will probably be getting more expensive (again) & offset a lot of these positive changes

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Webberweather53 said:
California will continue to get soaked for the foreseeable future. Objectively a good thing for their water supply and food prices at the grocery store, as most of the produce that’s grown in the CONUS comes from California’s San Joaquin Valley. Oth, gas will probably be getting more expensive (again) & offset a lot of these positive changes

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Why would gas get more expensive?
 
If the February torch comes, aside from the small snow in December, it seems there’s a real chance the mountain ski resorts essentially blank for real snowfall this season. At least January looks like it will be a blank. Has that ever happened?
 
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ajr said:
If the February torch comes, aside from the small snow in December, it seems there’s a real chance the mountain ski resorts essentially blank for real snowfall this season. At least January looks like it will be a blank. Has that ever happened?
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They will get up sloped within a 150 hours. Not a synoptic event, which may be what you are referring to. The northern mtns of NC and western slopes in NC have already scored a few inches, had white ground over Christmas. So the ski resort areas haven't been shutout They are however running way below normal, no doubt
 
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