I would say if we do get a snow in a bad pattern it will show up inside day 4 or 5. No way do the models have the timing of key pieces right in a bad pattern at day 8 or 9. I've seen storm signals show up at day 8 or 9 verify but it's rare. And that's in the best of patterns. The pattern in December wasn't great for winter weather. That's why we didn't even have any bites on models other than goofus and day 8 or 9. That pattern was only good for vodka cold.
I get that! Maybe this should be in banter but then what is everyone basing what they’re posting off of. Simple single runs, ensembles, overall current pattern? I’ll agree that 99.9% of the time the odds are stacked against us in the SE and I’m not arguing for or against any winter weather precip at this point.
We have a chance at below freezing tonight and tomorrow night depending in cloud cover
This is what I describe as the "Back 2 the Future" syndrome.
The best way is to just focus on the pattern 7-10 days out. And the ensembles are the best at that. The very knowledgeable ones on here fro, Webber, grit and a few others focus on the pattern. They haven't bought into this storm at all because of pattern recognition using ensembles. If you want to know if a threat is real pay attention to those guys.
It probably won't be there are some encouraging signs that we set the wheels in motion as early as 1/15 to start transitioning to a workable pattern post 1/20. Cold availability may be a bugaboo though I'm not sure if we can get anything poleward enough to really dump but we will see
That's the best thing about this time of year we need a cold airmass but nothing out of the ordinary for it to snow. What the euro and some of the other models were spitting out the last couple days wasn't that cold it was just great wave timing with a seasonal cold shot sandwiched in
It fell in a 10 day window that produced 4 seperate winter wx events here IMBY. We had a .2 ice event 2 days prior and it was still frozen on the limbs here that Monday night when the epic suprise unfolded. What made that event so awesome . That and it was a whopper for those in its path.
There is not enough data to feed, not enough super computing to run the data over and over with subtle changes... not enough buoys, not enough balloons, not enough high tech stations, and not enough money slotted to provide for better data, so we get what we get. It's better than when I got interested in weather in the 50's, but it should be much better by now. I have 52 right now at 6pm, and that's not an unusual temp for this time of year, nor would 22 be. It's winter, and as you say, still too many little variables, holes in the data, to be very accurate beyond a few days. Climo seems to be the best predictive tool, but the best storms can go against climo, lol. Maybe it's the surprise of them that makes them extra special.
I agree with this mostly..but where were you living in 2011-2012? GSP did it. Went the entire winter without a flake or sleet pellet. I'm sure there have been many with just a trace. It certainly has been a dozen or so of those at CLT and RDU. A trace counts in the books but isn't accumulating winter precip. There have been many complete duds like that and it'll happen again sooner or later.
i got about 4 inches last January so i have bout 5 yrs to go lol
As a matter of fact Charlotte has did it 18 times. A trace is a snowless winter in my book.
That stretch in the early 90s is brutal
Different location. That’s why.
That storm in January 1992 really weakened as it moved east and missed CLT to the south. I think Columbia, Myrtle Beach, and Wilmington all got around and inch from it.
"The '90s were so good"
If you grow up in Carrollton you had totally different weather than the northern suburbs of Atlanta especially the cad areas. Your weather was more like Alabama.
I lived in Northern GVL county.
We had 6" from that storm in January 1992.
I remember being heartbroken as a kid when West Georgia would get snow and we would not in Gainesville.
As someone who grew up just west of Charlotte, the 90s were brutal with the exception of the 93 superstorm and the 96 blizzard. Those are literally the two storms of note between February 1988 and December 1999. Honestly, the superstorm was only good for those of us west as well
I was heartbroken in December 1997 when there was a good bit of snow from Jackson to Birmingham but it vanished by the time it got to the GA border.
Yeah mine is too. I at least like a good 1-2 every year.
That was a nice storm for the I-20 corridor from Miss to SC. Was a miss for upstate SC and much of NC.
I remember this very well. I kept looking for snow for hours that night and finally gave up on it. That was one of several near misses we had from December 1988 through. Jan 1992.
1987 was not a bad year for winter weather through, especially for western NC. 4 big snowstorms in the mountains including a big one in early April that dropped 1-2 feet in most mountain locations in NC. We only had one real storm in 1988, but what a monster that was though. Heavy snow at 17 degrees here and was out of school for over a week.
