Pattern Jammin January 2023

[Webberweather53]

The SubX multi-model ensemble keeps the El Nino gravy train going into mid-late January w/ some semblance of a +PNA. Not a great pattern verbatim though, but probably the best we're gonna see before this Aleutian trough retrogrades even more & allows the -PNA/SE ridge to become re-established sometime near the end of January or early February.

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For future reference, here's the link to this site: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/jhicks/subx/

 

[Somosdel]

Going to get a 2 maybe 3 day window to score late January or winter is effectively over. We know for certain that Feb is lost. Just got to hope early to mid-March that the pattern can do something anomalous to bring some cold air close to the US again.

We don’t know this. We’ve seen time after time monthly forecasts completely wrong. Let’s relax. Feb climo is always our best chance in the southeast

 

[Rain Cold]

We don’t know this. We’ve seen time after time monthly forecasts completely wrong. Let’s relax. Feb climo is always our best chance in the southeast

CFS going anti-Nina climo for February wrt the SE ridge. It's clearly going to be wrong again. Better somehow someway make Jan 26-29 work out.

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Just a pretty map!

 

[Flotown]

mehh pattern doesnt look GREAT but to say winter is OVER might be streching it

 

[weatherfide]

mehh pattern doesnt look GREAT but to say winter is OVER might be streching it

I would say if your winter definition includes meaningful snowfall, then winter is most likely over. There will still be cold spells and cold rain, though and plenty of cool days to work outside!

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I like that look, nice deep cold SE can vortex dipping SE with a trailing high and nice western ridge extending up into Canada with a continued active pac trough feeding in waves

 

[Rain Cold]

I like that look, nice deep cold SE can vortex dipping SE with a trailing high and nice western ridge extending up into Canada with a continued active pac trough feeding in waves View attachment 129154

Nice look. Should be able to get temps back to near normal at some point. Give us a few days with temps in the 40s or 50s before February Nina climo kicks in and we roast the rest of the winter.

 

[iGRXY]

I would say if your winter definition includes meaningful snowfall, then winter is most likely over. There will still be cold spells and cold rain, though and plenty of cool days to work outside!

Mind you it's January 2nd

 

[J.C.]

It’s definitely not a torch. Wasn’t implying that. Its largely AN for a good chunk of the conus.


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This is pretty mild considering the coolest day among 18 is still degree above average, at least for here.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I am a person of hope. And I’m gonna be honest. I don’t like the progressiveness of the pattern, the pac trough to far east so flow is sped up, but you gotta like the hints and subtle trends of something around the 50/50 region/lower Atlantic heights around the second week of jan

 

[SD]

Pretty +Qbo look to the strat makes me wonder if any stretching or elongation will materialize

 

[NCSNOW]

Some times your to far south


And some times you to far north

 

[bigstick10]

Mind you it's January 2nd

Yes we know and I get it, but look at the next 15 days??? Lots of rain and barely getting to 30 for a couple of nights.

 

[iGRXY]

Yes we know and I get it, but look at the next 15 days??? Lots of rain and barely getting to 30 for a couple of nights.

Again, this was known for a while that the pattern would relax for around 10-15 days. But trying to cancel winter on the 2nd day of January is DUMB. We get snow and ice in even some of the worst patterns and we get blanked even during the best of patterns ie a week ago. And these models are not even close to their best. They have major swings even in the short and medium range. There also very rarely is wall to wall torch or cold and we will flip back cold at some point. Right now that looks somewhere between the 15th-29th and that happens to be peak climo. Even if we don't get snow it's not the end of the world, we live in the south. Hell I live in one of the best places for winter weather outside of the mountains in the south and even I go winters where the most I get is some backside snow that tops the grass or a 31 degree rain with shiny tree tops like in the 19-20 and 20-21 winters. But again, cancelling winter and snow with 2 1/2 months left in climo is just whining and has zero scientifical/meteorological support.

 

[Tarheel1]

Going to get a 2 maybe 3 day window to score late January or winter is effectively over. We know for certain that Feb is lost. Just got to hope early to mid-March that the pattern can do something anomalous to bring some cold air close to the US again.

We thought the 2nd half of January was going to be a lock on the cold. So there’s no certainty that February is “lost”

 

[Brick Tamland]

Some times your to far south

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And some times you to far north

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It is crazy how the past decade or so w e have seen places further south than NC get snow before we do and end up getting more snow, outside of the mountains that is. You would think we would be far enough north to get snow more often than we do. I think the wind off the Atlantic really screws us up a lot.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

2nd week or jan trending to overextended pacific jet. Unfortunate

 

[Billypg70]

Again, this was known for a while that the pattern would relax for around 10-15 days. But trying to cancel winter on the 2nd day of January is DUMB. We get snow and ice in even some of the worst patterns and we get blanked even during the best of patterns ie a week ago. And these models are not even close to their best. They have major swings even in the short and medium range. There also very rarely is wall to wall torch or cold and we will flip back cold at some point. Right now that looks somewhere between the 15th-29th and that happens to be peak climo. Even if we don't get snow it's not the end of the world, we live in the south. Hell I live in one of the best places for winter weather outside of the mountains in the south and even I go winters where the most I get is some backside snow that tops the grass or a 31 degree rain with shiny tree tops like in the 19-20 and 20-21 winters. But again, cancelling winter and snow with 2 1/2 months left in climo is just whining and has zero scientifical/meteorological support.

Agree whole heartily,
Models were never meant to be the forecast,
Only a tool used to help forecast.
I get that meteorologist use it as such.
In other words no model no matter the score is the gospel.
What their showing today will surely change next run or 5.
Also I get using analogs.
But at Bastardi stated,
No 2 years r the same no matter how closely they may resemble.
I'll punt in April.
Until then keep hope alive.