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Pattern Jammin January 2023

bouncycorn said:
Holy cow..

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December 2018 called.. it wants its snow gradient back!
 
This aint 1st bark from cmc. Biggest, no doubt. We should be able to use short range models this weekend and see how table will be setting up next wednesday as far as confluence to our NE. As has been stated, its biggest piece to the puzzle. Jury will be out on this one for a few more days.
 
Last frame of the 18z MMFS hires.. was about to unload on some folks. Not as far south as the CMC, but further south than the GFS and appeared to be about to phase to the Atlantic coast. Not cold enough at this last frame tho.. Ptype below MSLP.
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FWIW, the 00z Ukmet looks more like the CMC with our storm placement at 144hrs. 50/50 low is non-existent, but confluence zone/high placement looks pretty good. Definitely better than the 00z GFS. Hard to say how it would shake out though.

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Tonight's UKMet run is in. Disappointing to see the ICON and UKMet both trend worse with the hardcore 50/50 low. These are trend loops of the last 2 runs of the UKMet when our storm wave is over the Red River of OK/TX. Can see how the weaker 50/50 low / trough allows for higher heights up an down the East Coast, with associated warmer temperatures (1st 2 loops). The weaker 50/50 low configuration we get, the more this wave has to really "go to town" with respect to closing off and bombing out like that CMC run (last loop).

Can also see here on the 1st UKMet loop how the mb strength of the Sfc High over SE Canada isn't as important as the overall height configuration. All else equal, lower heights equals lower temperatures thru the air column. The Sfc high is stronger on tonight's run of the UKMet, and also the high is located a bit farther south....but it's warmer up and down the east coast (as seen on 2nd loop)

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Here's the 0z Canadian and the 0z Euro Op: Notice the HP placement and strength in the nE as well as all other factors affecting the confluence up there. Ironically both have a great storm track for us. But easy to see from 7 days out how fickle a thread the needle situation this is for us to luck up an lasso one in.

What you want to see: 0z Canadian

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A trend to what you don't want to see: 0z Euro

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Fruitless to even bother using the GFS at this point:
 
Even though our system of interest is still 8 days away, the table setter 50/50 low, or lack thereof is coming into the days 4-5 away period today and tomorrow. For areas outside of the mountains, I think it's safe to say we'll know by 12Z tomorrow if we can reel back in a potent 50/50 so we're not watching a cold rain with an otherwise gorgeous UL low crawling through the SE.
 
The EPS had one good run for this system (yesterday's 12z). That's why even w/ a large ensemble, model consistency is important, as well as support from multiple model suites, which this storm hasn't had yet.

The pattern & model support just hasn't been there for a big snow outside of the mountains. I took a lot of flack from certain posters here the past few days for taking this stance early on, but it's even clearer today that we're headed in this direction (not surprised).
Webberweather53 said:
As @Myfrotho704_ & I have been saying for a few days, the pattern + analogs generally can support a mountains & foothills paste bomb, which is what the GEFS is hinting at.

Outside of that, I'd be pretty skeptical for now.
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Once again, there really isn't any real support for a decent snow event outside the mountains here. Sure, that could certainly change, but we've yet to see the needle move on that at all in general the past several days. It's not saying much, but ice is honestly more likely than snow in the piedmont here.

If you're going to look at snowfall forecast maps, snowfall probabilities provide a much clearer, objective picture of winter weather potential in most cases, because they're less prone to being heavily skewed by a few outlier members as the mean often is.

Here, we can see yet again the chances of a legit snow event outside the mountains is <10% on virtually all ensembles & has been for the most part the last few days, save one or two runs from the EPS or GEFS.

Multi-run multi-model consensus > individual operational model runs & singular ensemble runs.

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Webberweather53 said:
The EPS had one good run for this system (yesterday's 12z). That's why even w/ a large ensemble, model consistency is important, as well as support from multiple model suites, which this storm hasn't had yet.

The pattern & model support just hasn't been there for a big snow outside of the mountains. I took a lot of flack from certain posters here the past few days for taking this stance early on, but it's even clearer today that we're headed in this direction (not surprised).



Once again, there really isn't any real support for a decent snow event outside the mountains here. Sure, that could certainly change, but we've yet to see the needle move on that at all in general the past several days. It's not saying much, but ice is honestly more likely than snow in the piedmont here.

If you're going to look at snowfall forecast maps, snowfall probabilities provide a much clearer, objective picture of winter weather potential in most cases, because they're less prone to being heavily skewed by a few outlier members as the mean often is.

Here, we can see yet again the chances of a legit snow event outside the mountains is <10% on virtually all ensembles & has been for the most part the last few days, save one or two runs from the EPS or GEFS.

Multi-run multi-model consensus > individual operational model runs & singular ensemble runs.

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Rooting for good trends today, would love this to be a pure snow for the mountains, if there’s mixed precip more then 50% of the duration the trip is canceled. Lol
 
Almost always need a solidly cold airmass in place for a widespread SE winter storm. It's why I personally always want to see the cold likely in place first, with the possibility of a storm. Because 9 times out of 10 (maybe 49 times out of 50), when you have the storm likely with the only possibility of cold air, you get a nice cold rain for most of us.

Anyway, we still have a couple of minutes later on this month before the pattern goes to pot.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The EPS had one good run for this system (yesterday's 12z). That's why even w/ a large ensemble, model consistency is important, as well as support from multiple model suites, which this storm hasn't had yet.

The pattern & model support just hasn't been there for a big snow outside of the mountains. I took a lot of flack from certain posters here the past few days for taking this stance early on, but it's even clearer today that we're headed in this direction (not surprised).



Once again, there really isn't any real support for a decent snow event outside the mountains here. Sure, that could certainly change, but we've yet to see the needle move on that at all in general the past several days. It's not saying much, but ice is honestly more likely than snow in the piedmont here.

If you're going to look at snowfall forecast maps, snowfall probabilities provide a much clearer, objective picture of winter weather potential in most cases, because they're less prone to being heavily skewed by a few outlier members as the mean often is.

Here, we can see yet again the chances of a legit snow event outside the mountains is <10% on virtually all ensembles & has been for the most part the last few days, save one or two runs from the EPS or GEFS.

Multi-run multi-model consensus > individual operational model runs & singular ensemble runs.

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…“If you're going to look at snowfall forecast maps, snowfall probabilities provide a much clearer, objective picture of winter weather potential in most cases, because they're less prone to being heavily skewed by a few outlier members as the mean often is”.

This is what I was looking for yesterday. Thanks for clearing that up. An explanation. ?
 
I know a lot of people like the cold and snow, but the last few days were amazing. 60's and sunny?

And my sinuses were grateful for the change, as the dryness from the heat running 24/7 was really starting to get to me.
 
Rain Cold said:
Almost always need a solidly cold airmass in place for a widespread SE winter storm. It's why I personally always want to see the cold likely in place first, with the possibility of a storm. Because 9 times out of 10 (maybe 49 times out of 50), when you have the storm likely with the only possibility of cold air, you get a nice cold rain for most of us.

Anyway, we still have a couple of minutes later on this month before the pattern goes to pot.
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Agree. This storm only has a small window to capture the cold. Obviously been a long shot from the get go. With the pac firehose jet, we've known the only shot we had was to time a shortwave right behind and exiting shortwave so we could catch a transient 50/50 low. Otherwise no way to get the cold we need outside a phased bomb with NS diving in. Credit to Fro for pointing this out since late December.

Im not sold late Jan into first half of February needs to be punted yet. I get the points some are making, they are valid. But most derive from one size fits all background pattern recognitions. Which is not to be discarded by any means. Its just the longer time marches on, the more actual weather reminds you how complex it actually is, espeacilly LR seasonal forecasting.
 
smast16 said:
I know a lot of people like the cold and snow, but the last few days were amazing. 60's and sunny?

And my sinuses were grateful for the change, as the dryness from the heat running 24/7 was really starting to get to me.
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We havent run the heat since last year. It was cold back in 2022. It had to be flipped on last night. Actually had some frost on the ole car this morning
 
NCSNOW said:
Agree. This storm only has a small window to capture the cold. Obviously been a long shot from the get go. With the pac firehose jet, we've known the only shot we had was to time a shortwave right behind and exiting shortwave so we could catch a transient 50/50 low. Otherwise no way to get the cold we need outside a phased bomb with NS diving in. Credit to Fro for pointing this out since late December.

Im not sold late Jan into first half of February needs to be punted yet. I get the points some are making, they are valid. But most derive from one size fits all background pattern recognitions. Which is not to be discarded by any means. Its just the longer time marches on, the more actual weather reminds you how complex it actually is, espeacilly LR seasonal forecasting.
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We've got about a 7-10 day window at the end of January through the first couple days of February before we are punting probably 2-3 weeks down the road. By then you're out of peak climo and quickly entering more spring time patterns and adding just one more obstacle to overcome. We've got to do something here at the end of the month or snow likely isn't happening this year and the best case scenario is a CAD ice/sleet storm.
 
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