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Pattern Jammin January 2023

If I were going snow chasing this weekend near Gatlinburg I’d probably try to get somewhere closer to Cosby/Foothills parkway area, unless you can find a cabin up near Ober Gatlinburg with some elevation.

Other areas if I were chasing:

Watauga - Todd
Avery- Elk Park or Banner Elk
Mitchell - Buladean
Yancey/Madison- Wolf Laurel
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
If I were going snow chasing this weekend near Gatlinburg I’d probably try to get somewhere closer to Cosby/Foothills parkway area, unless you can find a cabin up near Ober Gatlinburg with some elevation.

Other areas if I were chasing:

Watauga - Todd
Avery- Elk Park or Banner Elk
Mitchell - Buladean
Yancey/Madison- Wolf Laurel
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Our poster in Erwin has to be licking his chops. From Watuga lake back up to Boone on the west side would cash in nice on the gfs
 
So KATL has started the month at 14.2F above the average. Factoring in the GFS through 1/23 would leave KATL at +9.8F, a solid second to that point of the month if that forecast is in the neighborhood.

I've looked back at the data going to around 1880 or so, and here are the warmest Januarys on record:
1. 1950 +10.6
2. 1880 +9.5
3. 1974 +8.4
4. 1937 +8.2
5. 1907 +7.4
6. 2017 +7.2
7. 1949 +7.0
8. 1890 +6.2

GFS Forecast for KATL
1673133032242.png
 
I got a chance of a pellet or two in morning. Love my freezing rain chances temps in the mid/upper 30s. Lol

a7d062cf60c8f3701f23a62f03cd0d6e.png



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Hands down best setup of the winter so far for the NC mountains. If this doesn’t do it for favored areas then it’s tough sledding from here..and by tough sledding I mean sledding on grass and asphalt

Really pulling for that Canadian crawler solution..that would be a banger
 
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Hands down best setup of the winter so far for the NC mountains. If this doesn’t do it for favored areas then it’s tough sledding from here..and by tough sledding I mean sledding on grass and asphalt

Really pulling for that Canadian crawler solution..that would be a banger
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I always laugh when winter is thrown away Jan 7th. Monthly modeling isn’t accurate. If so then we would have our forecasts correct. We can’t trust anything more than 7-8 days out. I’ll stick w Charlotte and our 1848 record of measurable ice or snow every year since then. Look forward to it!!! Cheers all!!
 
Significant uptick on the 18z GEFS as far as the snowfall mean goes for the mountains. It almost doubled on the mean and is more in line with the EPS.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Hands down best setup of the winter so far for the NC mountains. If this doesn’t do it for favored areas then it’s tough sledding from here..and by tough sledding I mean sledding on grass and asphalt

Really pulling for that Canadian crawler solution..that would be a banger
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I read on Ober gatlinburgs website that their last natural snowfall was on 4/10/22…

That’s really remarkable considering I’ve seen the mountains receive measurable snow in October, November, and a December many times. Just shows how bad it’s been for the mountains so far
 
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Parker said:
I read on Ober gatlinburgs website that their last natural snowfall was on 4/10/21…..

That’s really remarkable considering I’ve seen the mountains receive measurable snow in October, November, and a December many times. Just shows how bad it’s been for the mountains so far
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That's incredibly depressing
 
Parker said:
I read on Ober gatlinburgs website that their last natural snowfall was on 4/10/21…..

That’s really remarkable considering I’ve seen the mountains receive measurable snow in October, November, and a December many times. Just shows how bad it’s been for the mountains so far
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I'm quite surprised they are still in business as their peak elevation is only something like 3k I believe. Cataloochee struggles for natural snow at 5600', but at least they invested heavily in their snowmaking capabilities.
 
Parker said:
I read on Ober gatlinburgs website that their last natural snowfall was on 4/10/22…

That’s really remarkable considering I’ve seen the mountains receive measurable snow in October, November, and a December many times. Just shows how bad it’s been for the mountains so far
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They had snow almost 2 weeks ago.
 
Finally got around to analyzing this past Christmas's cold wave in NC. Hopefully, I find enough time to analyze the low temperatures in SC & on the brief period of sleet/graupel/snow that occurred ahead of the arctic front on December 23rd.

Here's my map for NC. Mt Mitchell got down to -21°F ?

December 24-25 2022 NC Minimum Temperature Map.jpg
 
SD said:
We couldn't ask for more than that. A good 5-7 day window to end the month. Might be seeing the end of the pattern across Asia by the end but the table would already be set
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A few thoughts on this...

MJO should work its way thru Phases 1-2-3 during the Jan 15-31 period. Typical response to this is Pac Jet retraction (seen in purple here)...

BBWIgPk.gif



But the effects of forecasted +EAMT surface high pressure cold surges into E Asia during this same timeframe may act as counterbalance to prevent a big jet retraction and Aleutian High / -PNA pattern as we go into the late Jan / early Feb timeframe.

We can see here the EPS and EPS Control holding surging E Asia high pressure thru to the end of the run out to Jan 22, with an Aleutian Low developing, and High Pressure on the west coast...

0Tns0ud.gif


tbZLj2e.gif



Comment here from Jim Yang on the predicted flip from warm to cold in China with the surging high pressure

g67BZim.png
 
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griteater said:
A few thoughts on this...

MJO should work its way thru Phases 1-2-3 during the Jan 15-31 period. Typical response to this is Pac Jet retraction (seen in purple here)...

BBWIgPk.gif



But the effects of forecasted +EAMT surface high pressure cold surges into E Asia during this same timeframe may act as counterbalance to prevent a big jet retraction and Aleutian High / -PNA pattern as we go into the late Jan / early Feb timeframe.

We can see here the EPS and EPS Control holding surging E Asia high pressure thru to the end of the run out to Jan 22, with an Aleutian Low developing, and High Pressure on the west coast...

0Tns0ud.gif


tbZLj2e.gif



Comment here from Jim Yang on the predicted flip from warm to cold in China with the surging high pressure

g67BZim.png
Click to expand...

We’ll see. You’re gonna be fighting not just the MJO, but ENSO also trying to pull the jet back as well as typical planetary wave variability (large scale high amplitude planetary waves like this tend to retrograde over time, more so with blocking highs because the westerly jet underneath them is weaker). It’s a very delicate balance here indeed between going from a warm continental-wide super Nino look to -PNA/-EPO/SE ridge because we’re not in a favorable seasonal state for +PNA. I hope you get at least one more chance here in late January.

This is actually a really big negative EAMT next week until about day 10, because high MSLPa is west of the Tibetan Plateau (and lower MSLPa is to the east) & I suspect whatever +EAMT comes after this will be a net wash overall on how it impacts the Pacific jet, at least until about day 16-18

3307E0A7-78D7-413F-954F-ABDFCD9F865D.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
We’ll see. You’re gonna be fighting not just the MJO, but ENSO also trying to pull the jet back as well as typical planetary wave variability (large scale high amplitude planetary waves like this tend to retrograde over time, more so with blocking highs because the westerly jet underneath them is weaker). It’s a very delicate balance here indeed between going from a warm continental-wide super Nino look to -PNA/-EPO/SE ridge because we’re not in a favorable seasonal state for +PNA. I hope you get at least one more chance here in late January.

This is actually a really big negative EAMT next week until about day 10, because high MSLPa is west of the Tibetan Plateau (and lower MSLPa is to the east) & I suspect whatever +EAMT comes after this will be a net wash overall on how it impacts the Pacific jet, at least until about day 16-18

View attachment 129697
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Truth Eric, yeah agree on the current and upcoming -EAMT period. My focus was out past that (post Jan 15) where we have to live out at range far too often unfortunately. But tough call going forward as usual
 
griteater said:
Truth Eric, yeah agree on the current and upcoming -EAMT period. My focus was out past that (post Jan 15) where we have to live out at range far too often unfortunately. But tough call going forward as usual
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As much as these can go either way.. this always raises my eyebrows when we get an actual SSWE going .. could certainly help in some mischief in February even when we’re battling background Niña stuff B167EBCD-1C7B-4C8C-B93A-22E9BB084873.png
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Is this sudden enough to be classified as a SSWE yet? Things seem to be slowly but surly healing for something more favorable. View attachment 129708View attachment 129712View attachment 129713View attachment 129714View attachment 129715
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No. SSWEs are defined by zonal wind anomalies being < 0 (or reversed) near the polar cap region, or more specifically at 60N around 10mb.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/31/6/jcli-d-17-0648.1.xml

We are still nowhere close to that

14517D0A-024F-4E09-860B-3DAFA6D5F72E.png
 
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