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Pattern Jammin January 2023

It’s nice to see the pretty snow maps on the EPS, but being 10-12 days out knowing there isn’t much cold air in place in general & no trough offshore Atlantic Canada to help lock in any would be cooler air & keep the storm track to the suppressed, don’t feel great about this for now.

Maybe a shortwave trough in the northern branch of the jet sneaks under the ridge and out to New England + Atlantic Canada and is getting damped by the means this far out.

This is definitely the kind of pattern w/ a strong subtropical jet, cut off upper lows, and a very marginal air mass, where you get a paste bomb (esp over the mountains and foothills) or nothing at all, not much room for anything in between.

ED26CA4B-37CA-44A9-A780-A69FF2374225.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
It’s nice to see the pretty snow maps on the EPS, but being 10-12 days out knowing there isn’t much cold air in place in general & no trough offshore Atlantic Canada to help lock in any would be cooler air & keep the storm track to the suppressed, don’t feel great about this for now.

Maybe a shortwave trough in the northern branch of the jet sneaks under the ridge and out to New England + Atlantic Canada and is getting damped by the means this far out.

This is definitely the kind of pattern w/ a strong subtropical jet, cut off upper lows, and a very marginal air mass, where you get a paste bomb (esp over the mountains and foothills) or nothing at all, not much room for anything in between.

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Trip to Boone with jimmy looking pretty valid right now
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Word from JB-
January 3, 2022

I'm in a State of Confusion by the disagreement between each model's MJO and surface temperature forecasts.

Originally our idea for January was that the warm MJO signals would bring the end of winter after the colder start. The years 1951,1990, and 2006 served as analogs for this.
The analogs above are very close to the recent CFSv2 forecasts:
When I saw that the MJO is in fact staying away from the warm phases, I realized the premise was incorrect. This is why I believe the pattern will cool down significantly after the first ten days.
As I said though, the confusing part is that models' MJO forecasts are becoming stronger into cold phases, while their United States temperature forecasts continue to be warm.
All these forecasts bring us to Phase 8 by Week 2, which is a strong indicator for cold, yet surface temperature forecasts are still extremely warm.

My take is that the pattern will shift to cold, as ridging breaks down over the Eastern United States and the ridge sets up back over Western Canada. I simply don't see how we can see a warm pattern with such a strong cold signal in the MJO.



But for now either me or the models are in a State of confusion
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I will say that for as much of a cold weenie as he is, JB did say as late as just before Christmas that he expected to see the east mild for most of January. He’s obviously just seeing the same thing with MJO that we’re all seeing.
 
ATLwxfan said:
Sounds like we’ve got a case of favorable MJO with unfavorable teleconnections/ lack of blocking. Which may mean we are looking to mid Feb before we really have a shot in ATL.

Upper south may luck out sooner though.


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No the other teleconnections are looking good… the AO is going deeply negative again and the NAO looks like it’s making a run a negative by the middle of the month.
 
rburrel2 said:
Looks a lot like the numerous past bomb snow storms that Upstate SC and Western NC have gotten the last 7-8 years.
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With a marginal (being generous) air mass and a 1034 HP 1000 miles NE, rain is a much better bet. But we still have our 6 hour window around the 28th!

Edit: My bad 1036 HP. TN or WV might see a flake in the floodlights.
 
Rain Cold said:
With a marginal (being generous) air mass and a 1034 HP 1000 miles NE, rain is a much better bet. But we still have our 6 hour window around the 28th!
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It's how we've gotten a lot of our snows the last decade. Like most threats it probably won't work out for any of 100 different reasons, but it's something to follow for now. If we get a similar look to that at 5h to verify(doubtful) I like our chances.
 
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