Pattern Jammin January 2023

[Webberweather53]

CAE about to get buried today based on this radar and trajectory, flooding very probable. Stay safe everyone.

Edit to add these 24 hour totals from GSP as of 7am. Lots of street flooding in the upstate this am.

Multiple tornado warnings on that line near Columbia, SC.

The other cell near Lugoff is starting to look conspicuous too

 

[Rain Cold]

Just a quick update after scanning the data this morning:

We continue to look to have a 30 to 45 minute window around Jan 29 for a short fuse snowstorm. After that, the combination of the strongest SPV on record, coming out of a Super Nino into a fading Nina pattern during peak Nina warm signal winter climo, along with the MJO going into Phase 5 and a 6×10^-4 MT event will give us a good shot at mid 80s to around 90 for the balance of the winter. No need to throw in the towel just yet, though. After the pattern burnout in late March, the end of the month or early April should offer up another excellent window for a wet snow. Cheers

 

[EmersonGA]

3.33" from this one and it sounded like a little hail last night. My creek is about as far out of its banks as I've seen since we moved.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Sleet lovers rejoice!

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Don’t look at CMC or GFS we should be in full SER flame mode during that time period as we’ve been promised.

 

[CltNative90]

GFS very progressive with the wave and only marginal cold air. Liking the fact the Canadian is showing high pressure to the NE for two runs in a row. That’s probably the only way this works outside of I-40 north. Would be nice if the Euro and ensembles could follow suit.

 

[rburrel2]

Cmc is a really nice evolution for a winter storm. Also 180hr icon has a similar look.

 

[Tarheel1]

Don’t look at CMC or GFS we should be in full SER flame mode during that time period as we’ve been promised.

?

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Cmc is a really nice evolution for a winter storm. Also 180hr icon has a similar look.

Notice that also.

 

[Broken024]

NW trend should put this storm in... checks notes... Dubuque by day 10.

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Wait, you posted just last year about how phase 7 and 8 had the most snowstorms in January. The MJO does have a huge influence on our ability to get cold enough for winterstorms.

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

NW trend should put this storm in... checks notes... Dubuque by day 10.
View attachment 129311

No, this looks out to sea. There will not be any moisture thrown back that far inland with a low that far out. Looks like it will have to trend NW if we are going to get anything.

 

[BullCityWx]

The canadian can keep that storm right where it is until next Thursday when we'll be back to collect for those of us north of 40/85 ?.

GFS had a one two punch that run too. Interesting.

 

[Stevo24]

I was looking back in last years thread and this is about the time we started getting hints at the Jan 16 winter storm. Things were not looking good until about 5-6 days before. Let’s see if we can make something happen.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

 

[BullCityWx]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

There is some mild ensemble support, esp on the CMCE, it’s nowhere near as weenie, but the pattern is very Miller B esque, weak SE Canada vortex, higher heights in between, southern stream wave. A basic CAD/Miller B look. need to trend to a stronger SE Canada vortex. Way to do that is slow down the pacific trough/build higher heights in central canada to encourage more northern stream digging, which is very much possible, and amp up the vortex so it slows a bit. The biggest problem i see here is, in this progressive pattern, there’s nothing to keep it in place, so this is something that would have to be perfect timing

 

[NCSNOW]

Believe 12z euro yesterday Miller B and it bombed it off NE same time frame.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

There is some mild ensemble support, esp on the CMCE, it’s nowhere near as weenie, but the pattern is very Miller B esque, weak SE Canada vortex, higher heights in between, southern stream wave. A basic CAD/Miller B look. need to trend to a stronger SE Canada vortex. Way to do that is slow down the pacific trough/build higher heights in central canada to encourage more northern stream digging, which is very much possible. The biggest problem i see here is, in this progressive pattern, there’s nothing to keep it in place, so this is something that would have to be perfect timing View attachment 129315View attachment 129316

If we had this inside 36 hours it would still be extremely suspect. I think this pattern is priming for a big mid month Appalachian snow. Active southern stream with east coast ridging hanging around and marginal cold. This is when the big dogs like to eat.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

CMC gives threading the needle a whole new meaning. I’d like to see a similar storm where this actually worked out.
We would be chewing our nails if this storm was tonight much less 10 days away.