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Pattern Jammin January 2023

EPS Mean here for Jan 14-24...

Super Nino like Pac Jet Extension to California collapses, then the next extension emerges off E Asia and reaches out to Hawaii where we need it to go (wouldn't complain if it somehow just stopped and took a nice vacation there).

1NpaMu6.gif
 
Rain Cold said:
I hate to beat a dead horse again and again and again but the air just isn't cold and the torch is coming back 5 days after this.
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I think if this pattern verifies, we will have a better chance of a big snow somewhere between N. LA and N. S Car, than when we had what seemed to be the almost perfect pattern back in December with the extreme cold.
 
griteater said:
EPS Mean here for Jan 14-24...

Super Nino like Pac Jet Extension to California collapses, then the next extension emerges off E Asia and reaches out to Hawaii where we need it to go (wouldn't complain if it somehow just stopped and took a nice vacation there).

1NpaMu6.gif
Click to expand...
I hear Hawaii is nice this time of year.

Euro control had a pretty significant snow event for Middle TN, Alabama and West GA at the end.
 
Somosdel said:
All about threading the needle in the south.
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But it doesn't take the coldest of Air to get snow around here either. I've seen it Snow 3 inches here where I live just under 40° So not sure these folks hollering we don't this or that doesn't have the cold Air. Well who cares if it's 40 or below and the Columns is cold enough it can snow. Seen it time and time again.

Sent from my SM-A526U using Tapatalk
 
Snownut said:
But it doesn't take the coldest of Air to get snow around here either. I've seen it Snow 3 inches here where I live just under 40° So not sure these folks hollering we don't this or that doesn't have the cold Air. Well who cares if it's 40 or below and the Columns is cold enough it can snow. Seen it time and time again.

Sent from my SM-A526U using Tapatalk
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Agreed. I’ll take the that pattern anytime over an arctic plunge.
 
Currently 70*F at DFW, overachieving by a few degrees.

Should make a run for 80*F tomorrow and Wednesday.
 
Webberweather53 said:
You're pathetic.
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It's all good man. But you made your point well. You've done a really good job explaining how It's not an ideal pattern for snow. The cold is not real cold and a favorable pattern isn't likely to lock in. People were just posting a few optimistic-looking map to try and find some hope in this dumpster fire of a winter so far, even if it's not likely to lead to much.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Last week we had the dam burst idea. This week we're back to sloshing the bathtub ???

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Ha I actually think the part about the bathtub sloshing via cold surges into EAsia, then turning cool/cold in NAmerica makes sense (via +EAMT), but he lost me when he mentioned later that it may lock in the rest of winter
 
BullCityWx said:
So the Euro will have a 9KM(5.5 miles) space between gridpoints on the model. The GFS currently is 28KM(18 miles) between data points. Imagine there's a map with a point plopped at RDU airport. About 18 miles away is Eno River State Park.

Similarly, imagine a point plopped 5.5 miles from RDU as the crow flies, roughly Crabtree Valley Mall. That means there’s about 13 miles less distance between data points.

The euro has vastly more data to work with.
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Thanks Bull. Maybe it can get a better handle on some of the meseo hi res snowfall boundaries at more distance out now
 
griteater said:
Ha I actually think the part about the bathtub sloshing via cold surges into EAsia, then turning cool/cold in NAmerica makes sense (via +EAMT), but he lost me when he mentioned later that it may lock in the rest of winter
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Actually, given by the time the tub sloshes us a bone, winter will be just about over anyway so he's not wrong to say "locked in for the rest of winter" lol.
 
griteater said:
Ha I actually think the part about the bathtub sloshing via cold surges into EAsia, then turning cool/cold in NAmerica makes sense (via +EAMT), but he lost me when he mentioned later that it may lock in the rest of winter
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Yeah… that totally lost me. The very forces at play that should give us a fairly decent 10-14 window of opportunity are also what causes us to go into IMO what should be a very warm period.
 
SD said:
Gfs suite is concerning with extending the jet more and more each run
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Haven’t seen that yet with the ensembles or the extended Euro Control run for example, but it’s ’interesting’ because I would think as we go out in time toward early Feb, the thing we would be more concerned about is the Pac Jet not extending enough and retracting back into -PNA mode based on the MJO progression. So for now, just watching ? to see how much influence the +EAMT processes are going to have with extending the jet. Would be just bad luck if it over-extends again given that the MJO is moving along and should have less jet extension influence this go around…but I think we’re going to see this setup nicely for the last week of Jan, with early Feb more of a question mark. As always, it’s just an educated best guess at that range
 
SD said:
Biggest event so far around here
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biggest event for everyone south of the hudson river and within 100 miles of the atlantic, this has been a truly dreadful start to winter. dc, philly, that corridor has barely sniffed snow. i have not seen a flake. this is gamblers fallacy lunacy i know but a lot of folks are due for something to break our way, even if it's just pleasant saturday snow showers that have no chance of sticking.
 
griteater said:
Haven’t seen that yet with the ensembles or the extended Euro Control run for example, but it’s ’interesting’ because I would think as we go out in time toward early Feb, the thing we would be more concerned about is the Pac Jet not extending enough and retracting back into -PNA mode based on the MJO progression. So for now, just watching ? to see how much influence the +EAMT processes are going to have with extending the jet. Would be just bad luck if it over-extends again given that the MJO is moving along and should have less jet extension influence this go around…but I think we’re going to see this setup nicely for the last week of Jan, with early Feb more of a question mark. As always, it’s just an educated best guess at that range
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And when I say ‘setup nicely’, I just mean a trough in the east with western ridging, and cooler/colder conditions…who knows on wintry chances
 
NCSNOW said:
See what the Crazy Uncle does here


View attachment 129800
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Really messy. Would prefer more energy in the back side and more consolidation and while we're wishing would prefer the northern stream energy dropping into the back side of the trough.
 
ILMRoss said:
biggest event for everyone south of the hudson river and within 100 miles of the atlantic, this has been a truly dreadful start to winter. dc, philly, that corridor has barely sniffed snow. i have not seen a flake. this is gamblers fallacy lunacy i know but a lot of folks are due for something to break our way, even if it's just pleasant saturday snow showers that have no chance of sticking.
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Yep I just took a look at the season accum map and it looks real sad on the east coast. Even 2011-2012 wasn't this bad for a lot of folks.

2022-2023 so far:
sfav2_CONUS_2022093012_to_2023010912.png
2011-2012 on Jan 9:
sfav2_CONUS_2011093012_to_2012010912.png
2015-2016 was also shockingly horrendous. It must've been backloaded because I don't remember it being that bad of a winter.
2015-2016.png
 
RDUHeatIsland said:
Yep I just took a look at the season accum map and it looks real sad on the east coast. Even 2011-2012 wasn't this bad for a lot of folks.

2022-2023 so far:

2011-2012 on Jan 9:

2015-2016 was also shockingly horrendous. It must've been backloaded because I don't remember it being that bad of a winter.
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2011-2012 was about as bad as it gets and still the gold standard for me as far as "worst winters" go

2015 started with an ultra torch but got redeemed with the 1-23-2016 blizzard that is an all timer across the i-95 corridor, i think we also had some nickel and dime events after

this winter- not even that torchy. instead it we get vapors of a threat in the 7-10 day range just to see it get less amped/positively tilted and pass harmless off the coast
 
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