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Pattern Jammin January 2023

metwannabe said:
Maybe the comments above were taken out of context or something. Nobody said it's been "that cold" or below normal, only there was a GFS run (maybe other models as well) that showed no below freezing temps for the next 2 weeks but it's been below freezing the last 4 nights. Daytime highs as Shane mentioned above are a different story, they've been A or AN
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The whole damn point was saying that people were mentioning that it wouldn't get below 32 again this winter and it has in a bad pattern. People at this place I swear
 
ENJOY THAT 48 HOUR 60 DEGREE RAIN 1/18-1/20:

qpf_048h-imp.conus.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This is starting to gain consistency on models, CMCE looks the best atm given it starts getting some connection from the TPV View attachment 129836View attachment 129837
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It has been inching closer in time for the last few days. Nothing bone chilling temperature wise showing up, but we don't need all that in Mid to Late January. I like to think there will be a window somewhere in that last week of January timeframe.
 
Robert West said:
It has been inching closer in time for the last few days. Nothing bone chilling temperature wise showing up, but we don't need all that in Mid to Late January. I like to think there will be a window somewhere in that last week of January timeframe.
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As long as the ridge stays poleward on ensembles, the cold would show eventually show up before retrogression
 
NoSnowATL said:
Only 2 weeks away.......
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The late December cold shot was 2 weeks out also & we worked the ensembles into the medium range then into reality & we eventually got the coldest air in years & the opportunity for something to happen, even though it didn't. It's not like we are attempting to work a drunk 324 hour out GFS fantasy run inside the medium range. If this continues to show up to the 240 hour mark, i think it has legs. Just my opinion. Its just a pattern change we are looking for, not some massive fantasy land storm.
 
I'm confident this 'cold spell' is coming but it looks transient. Not fast transient mind you but maybe about 5 days? Not a lot of time to score.
 
It also looks from this distance like maybe it just moderates out like the last one. Not bad but hope it doesn't suppress the southern stream like happened before.
 
CaryWx said:
I'm confident this 'cold spell' is coming but it looks transient. Not fast transient mind you but maybe about 5 days? Not a lot of time to score.
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Seems like that's normally on average the window we have anyways in the Southeast. You likely aren't going to see a 10 day window. We are kings of threading the needle.
 
griteater said:
What makes it look like that?
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I guess the way it's behaving towards the end of its run. I'll defer to you grit. :)

also shallow cold air trapped west of the apps if I'm seeing it right. It's to much detail to extract at range so that observation comes with a hampster cage salt block
 
Robert West said:
The late December cold shot was 2 weeks out also & we worked the ensembles into the medium range then into reality & we eventually got the coldest air in years & the opportunity for something to happen, even though it didn't. It's not like we are attempting to work a drunk 324 hour out GFS fantasy run inside the medium range. If this continues to show up to the 240 hour mark, i think it has legs. Just my opinion. Its just a pattern change we are looking for, not some massive fantasy land storm.
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Just for the tone you are using and the way you are delivering your message, I'm going to have to say that you deserve to place a marble in your bucket as a reward today. Well done. The poster skittish-ness and gun shy-ness is going to ratchet up this go around given that Dec did not produce a good winter storm

Here is the 12z GEFS 24-hour member avg snow product for Jan 21-26 on SVista....storm track heading south

ZTPeH5r.gif
 
Robert West said:
It has been inching closer in time for the last few days. Nothing bone chilling temperature wise showing up, but we don't need all that in Mid to Late January. I like to think there will be a window somewhere in that last week of January timeframe.
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Yeah the bonus here is max cold climo in mid to late Jan.....also max climo for farthest south storm track
 
griteater said:
Just for the tone you are using and the way you are delivering your message, I'm going to have to say that you deserve to place a marble in your bucket as a reward today. Well done. The poster skittish-ness and gun shy-ness is going to ratchet up this go around given that Dec did not produce a good winter storm

Here is the 12z GEFS 24-hour member avg snow product for Jan 21-26 on SVista....storm track heading south

ZTPeH5r.gif
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I'm liking TN/KY as the most likely snow storm zone in the south during this period. The cold does not look to penetrate as far south as December and timing a low along the boundary that gets to the Apps and stalls is the likely scenario to me. This would place western/middle TN into KY as the best zone. I've seen it so many times. If a storm track like that shows up, I'll seriously think about chasing it.
 
CaryWx said:
I guess the way it's behaving towards the end of its run. I'll defer to you grit. :)

also shallow cold air trapped west of the apps if I'm seeing it right. It's to much detail to extract at range so that observation comes with a hampster cage salt block
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Salt blocks are good! Yeah, the positive is that things continue to progess nicely. Just think that all modeling (Op and Ens) can throw head fakes at the ends of their runs (good or bad).
 
Wonder how much SS energy we forfeit with the pac jet retreating Jan 20 onward. I'm glad to see it, just hope we can find some energy for the NS to work with during this stretch.

And early Kudos to the GEPS as it has been rock steady advertising. Not verified yet, but its getting support as we start getting inside 10 days now.
 
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