Pattern Jammin January 2023

[iGRXY]

What?

Old wise tale about it snows 10 days after a thunderstorm in winter. Been told for decades in the south. Along with watch the animals and if the birds are feeding heavily in the days leading up to a winter storm potential.

 

[iGRXY]

Yes, and it thunders all the time in the tropics

What does that have to do with anything? We aren't in the tropics now are we? Listen I get you like to troll and doom and gloom all day, but it really isn't necessary. It's January and there's a hope of something out there. Why not just wait and see lol?

 

[CltNative90]

Old wise tale about it snows 10 days after a thunderstorm in winter. Been told for decades in the south. Along with watch the animals and if the birds are feeding heavily in the days leading up to a winter storm potential.

Brad P posted this a couple hours ago, right on cue. As you can see from the graphic, it worked out a couple times last winter.

 

[Chazwin]

Lets be honest and I hate it for the other areas in the southeast, but 9/10, especially in this decade, we are a CAD/Miller B storm progression. Miller A's are fun for everybody and they tend to get nice paste jobs across the entire south, but those are the old days. I said back during December that I thought we would almost certainly get something (my logic was due to how much noise the ensembles had), and it was a fun thing to see the potential for an old day board wide hit, but that didn't work out. But when you start honking Miller B's, that's when my ears perk because we can get them in even the worst patterns. They're much easier to score and tend to happen more often than not because the ridge has lived on the east coast for 10 years now and we just need a solid 50/50 to anchor is CAA and ridging builds in the HP needed for CAD. Now I won't say we score, but this is one that has a much more realistic shot of happening IMO. Problem is I hope we get a similar scenario like last year with a solid FGEN front thumping or get the low to just ride far enough south we stay mostly snow. But ice would definitely be my biggest concern in a setup like this.

Yeah… definitely Miller Bs are preferred for both of our areas… especially in a set up like this that is obviously less than slam dunk.

 

[Webberweather53]

Brad P posted this a couple hours ago, right on cue. As you can see from the graphic, it worked out a couple times last winter.
View attachment 129355

There’s probably some physical connection in some situations where a storm passes to our NW and we end up getting into the warm sector of it, with a big swath of snow somewhere over the northern us or southern Canada. Over time, in a stormy pattern, subsequent storms will tend to sink southward as snow cover from previous systems pushes the baroclinic zone to the south, yielding a more favorable pattern for cold/snow

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That’s a solid trend around Atlantic Canada, the more we drop those heights around there, there deeper/colder the airmass behind the 50/50 is.

 

[packfan98]

Looks workable to me.

 

[Somosdel]

I thought winter was cancelled?!?! All jokes aside great to see the Doctor sniffing out next week’s threat. If nothing at all at least it gives us something to track!

 

[Ron Burgundy]

View attachment 129359
Looks workable to me.

Would that be more of a hybrid A/B?

 

[NoSnowATL]

Would that be more of a hybrid A/B?

Awful look for Georgia.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Would that be more of a hybrid A/B?

Looks mostly B due to the fast flow and not much blocking it probably doesn’t ride up the coast as you’d expect from an A

 

[ATLwxfan]

You folks in the Carolinas can track your storm. We’ve firmly moved on the severe season in Georgia.


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[FallsLake]

You folks in the Carolinas can track your storm. We’ve firmly moved on the severe season in Georgia.


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It's still so far out that we're all in it right now.

12z Canadian:

This thing may not even materialize for anybody. We need to get this inside 7 days to really take it seriously.

 

[ILMRoss]

View attachment 129359
Looks workable to me.

kinda surprised there's less chatter on the EPS... miller b hijinks sure but this looks... really good?

 

[CaryWx]

kinda surprised there's less chatter on the EPS... miller b hijinks sure but this looks... really good?

Yeah it's a good look alright and there have been several runs with a signal on the euro. Not sure everybody is awake on it yet.

 

[Oconeexman]

Ended up with 3.5" on the button. Overperformed here on the liquid!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

GFS looks better imo, that wave entering the US is much further south so far, and the main northern stream energy is digging more north of the lakes

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looks like the GFS main problem is the energy connection to a piece of energy in Canada, euro and CMC are still much different

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

GFS looks better imo, that wave entering the US is much further south so far, and the main northern stream energy is digging more north of the lakes View attachment 129362

Goes more gung hoe on the first wave and the second one is kind of meh.. still though it’s the gfs with a bad skill score so it honestly doesn’t look terrible for a workable solution this far out.. don’t wanna be in a bullseye every run 200+ hours out

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Good news! The 18z GFS is a dud. Since we all know it is completely clueless at this range, it's a great time to make a bread, milk, and beer run.