CMC has thrown the proverbial BONE 
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
Snowpack to the north and northwest is good for cold air maintenance as it travels south. It's particularly important when we're dealing with marginal air. It would be nice and would help mitigate the fact that we have very little snow cover to the north if we had some legitimate cold air around. But alas, c'est la vie.
Washington DC snow goobers just got canadianed
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That euro control run did the same exact thing, just a little further S&W
CMC looks good across the entire spine, Gatlinburg jackpotted 
What in the great googly Moogly … 
Fountainguy97
Member
I don't think many people realize just how close Northern NC is to the game this weekend.
A couple small shifts and a swath of NC is getting pasted. (No weenie) Our energy is still offshore for another day.
A couple small shifts and a swath of NC is getting pasted. (No weenie) Our energy is still offshore for another day.
Is this realistic you think? Just seems a bit winter impractical
This has got to be saved to the model archive. Now we can say “remember when the GFS had a category 1 hurricane approaching the Carolina coast at 222 hours in mid January?”
rburrel2
Member
long range 12z GFS is titillating.
GFS went insane with blocking. IDK, but if there's any truth to what it's cooking up, that's a pattern changer.
NCSNOW
Member
12z Ukmet
12z Canadian
The Canadian pivots and gets some slight neg tilt, Ukie stays neutral tilt next couple frames.
12z Canadian
The Canadian pivots and gets some slight neg tilt, Ukie stays neutral tilt next couple frames.
Gfs looking more like what EPS and other ensemble runs have looked in the future so that’s good to see 
This is why monthlies aren’t worth a darn. We all know they have major pattern issues over 5 days. Why trust monthlies? Hoping we see more agreement w Dr Euro as time progresses.
???
Snownut
Member
Thus wouldn't take much more digging and It would bring Lower Elevations of NC and upstate Sc into play.
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SnowNiner
Member
???
Still looks positive tilt and progressive to me.
Had the gif cued up to post exact same thing lol. Yes mildly interesting indeed
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I hate to be that guy again, but the +PNA and eastern trough is also nice & all on the EPS, but the air mass just isn't very cold, or should I say cold enough to yield snow down in the southern US thru ~Jan 24-25 ish when moisture is also present.
Normally, that would be a reasonably exciting pattern for us but considering how little snow cover there is to our north after this massive warm spell to go along w/ the amount of warm air that needs to be wiped out before we even think about winter weather, I'm not impressed.
It's extremely close for N half of NC that's for sure and not in lala land either.
We'd be attempting to flurry here but it's awfully dry below 700mb. Almost want this to move through mid afternoon to see if we could steepen lapse rates and get a little convection 
Fountainguy97
Member
Need it negative tilt a bit sooner to get that low up against the coast. But a nice shift
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Mildly interesting is certainly a good way to put it, with special emphasis on mild. I don't see much to get excited about here east of the mountains, other than a few backside snow flurries if we hit everything just right.
I know we are all in the South, but there is some wild changes going on with this secondary low over the last 24 hours. Euro now has a Winter storm for the Northeast with that secondary low. Snow all the way down to the Delmarva.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Yep right now any trust in a model past hour 12 of the HRRR is not warranted. We should have major trust issues.
Fountainguy97
Member
Northern stream energy is everything for this weekend. Models are strengthening that diving energy and it becomes the dominant piece at the bottom of the trough.
need this to continue to trend this way. In this case we actually need more of an inland track which is complete opposite of where we normally are.
need this to continue to trend this way. In this case we actually need more of an inland track which is complete opposite of where we normally are.
Euro crushes Gatlinburg. Sneaks some snow over the mountains. Good run 
It is. But, that's a lot better look and wouldn't take but another couple of ticks SW to get pretty darn interesting.
You could make up a dream scenario where there is more separation between the lead wave and the trailer and they act as 2 independent systems but given the seasonal trend really for the last 2 winters of a faster jet and less western ridge amplitude as you close in on hour 0 I doubt we get that lucky. I'd be happy to just get a few flurries or a quick period of legitimate light snow and even that might be hard to do as presented by the 2 most enthusiastic models.
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packfan98
Moderator
Pretty cool. When the EPS has 101 members, maybe we can find one that buries our backyards???
I’d rather they just bring back the version from 15 years ago and call it a day
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Meanwhile the GFS is eating it's glue stick.
GEFS and GEPS so far continuing to indicate a cooler forecasted period by late month. Nothing that’s going to take away how warm it’s been but a period where we legit could actually score something wintry.
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So the Euro will have a 9KM(5.5 miles) space between gridpoints on the model. The GFS currently is 28KM(18 miles) between data points. Imagine there's a map with a point plopped at RDU airport. About 18 miles away is Eno River State Park.Will this help increase accuracy?
Similarly, imagine a point plopped 5.5 miles from RDU as the crow flies, roughly Crabtree Valley Mall. That means there’s about 13 miles less distance between data points.
The euro has vastly more data to work with.
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I hate to beat a dead horse again and again and again but the air just isn't cold and the torch is coming back 5 days after this.Jan 20-24 on the EPS Mean and EPS Control run
