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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Webberweather53 said:
You can already see the -PNA fixing to set up on the models around day 15-16 as the big Aleutian trough begins to retreat towards far eastern Siberia. I still don’t see much in the way of +EAMT to save us.
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Wait, don't tell me you put any faith in a day-16 weather model forecast. Don't you have anything positive to say?
 
GEPS still looks pretty decent last 8-10 days of the month. Its a window that could yield an opportunity. Hopefully EPS is on board, I don't have access. If Webbs Feb forecast holds serve, then we will be relying on a spring/March haymaker to score this year if we don't cash in late Jan.

We are running an astounding +10 above normal for January so far at GSO. registered a -4.6 yesterday. Got smoked the first 5 days.

2023-01-01584853.012.91200.000.00
2023-01-02594451.511.51300.000.00
2023-01-03685360.520.5400.060.00
2023-01-04625659.019.1600.830.00
2023-01-05654354.014.21100.000.00
2023-01-06553545.05.32000.000.00
2023-01-07503241.01.3240T0.00
2023-01-08373335.0-4.63000.18MM
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Wait, don't tell me you put any faith in a day-16 weather model forecast. Don't you have anything positive to say?
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No, because there's nothing positive about where we're probably headed.

I've been saying this for weeks. I try to be as objective/unbiased as possible, it rubs some people the wrong way because I'm not always going to be positive to just tell you what you want to hear (like JB, etc.). In this case, I don't see many positives, and as meh as the pattern looks in late January (yes we have +PNA and E US trough, but no real cold air still until at least Jan 25 because of all the mild Pacific air initially in place that needs to be flushed out), it probably in general gets less favorable for cold/snow as we move into February.









Webberweather53 said:
Fwiw, this my general sentiment on January (as things currently stand)

-The first week or so is very likely going to be warm & fairly wet/stormy. Need to be on the lookout for severe weather across the lower MS Valley & Gulf coast especially.

Once we get to/past Jan 10th ish, we should see more of a canonical El Nino/+PNA pattern return. We'll probably progressively step down from this super mild pattern to a seasonable one, that eventually becomes rather cool again as we move into mid-late January.

Imho, after this potential chance ~Dec 26-27th or so, our next best window is probably somewhere in/around the 3rd week of January (~ Jan 14-25 ish). There may very well be a storm or two that shows up between now & then, but the air masses earlier on in January are more liable to be stale, more temperate continental polar ones, capable of delivering snow primarily to climo favored areas of the Appalachian mountains, etc.

I also tentatively suspect we may see the -EPO also make a return sometime late in January and eventually evolve into a more classic -EPO/-PNA/SE ridge La Nina pattern in February (typical evolution for a winter like this).


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NCHighCountryWX said:
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I remember when he said he didn't believe the warm pattern on the models in early-mid January because the MJO was in phase 8. :rolleyes:

It's verifying as one of our warmest starts to January on record & really won't be cooling off (anomalously) until the last week or so of the month. Even then, we'll almost certainly end up well above average

Screen Shot 2023-01-09 at 6.21.08 AM.png
 
IF KCLT blanks in January(which is more likely right now than not), here are winters that featured nothing for Nov-Dec-Jan:

1900-1901: 1"
1910-1911: .1"
1923-1924: 4.7"
1931-1932: .1"
1933-1934: .4"
1940-1941: 4.1"
1946-1947: 1.3"
2011-2012: T
2014-2015: 3"

So at the very best, according to these historical numbers, you're looking at a 20% shot at normal snowfall`with a 50% chance of 1" or less.
 
BullCityWx said:
IF KCLT blanks in January(which is more likely right now than not), here are winters that featured nothing for Nov-Dec-Jan:

1900-1901: 1"
1910-1911: .1"
1923-1924: 4.7"
1931-1932: .1"
1933-1934: .4"
1940-1941: 4.1"
1946-1947: 1.3"
2011-2012: T
2014-2015: 3"

So at the very best, according to these historical numbers, you're looking at a 20% shot at normal snowfall`with a 50% chance of 1" or less.
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Worth mentioning to that of these winters, all the above normal ones (1923-24, 1940-41, 2014-15) were El Nino winters, so the odds are probably even lower than 20% if I had to guess.

The deck is/has been stacked against us getting a good snowy winter ever since we missed our opportunity in December. Could happen, but it's a huge long shot.
 
BullCityWx said:
IF KCLT blanks in January(which is more likely right now than not), here are winters that featured nothing for Nov-Dec-Jan:

1900-1901: 1"
1910-1911: .1"
1923-1924: 4.7"
1931-1932: .1"
1933-1934: .4"
1940-1941: 4.1"
1946-1947: 1.3"
2011-2012: T
2014-2015: 3"

So at the very best, according to these historical numbers, you're looking at a 20% shot at normal snowfall`with a 50% chance of 1" or less.
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those dates are very interesting.......77 percent of the snowless days are 1947 and older? only 2 after 1948? Am I understanding the dates correctly?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Worth mentioning to that of these winters, all the above normal ones (1923-24, 1940-41, 2014-15) were El Nino winters, so the odds are probably even lower than 20% if I had to guess.

The deck is/has been stacked against us getting a good snowy winter ever since we missed our opportunity in December. Could happen, but it's a huge long shot.
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Maybe we just shut it down till March when we probably get some model mirage fantasy storms.

Well I guess the mountains still have a shot with the system later this week.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
BullCityWx said:
IF KCLT blanks in January(which is more likely right now than not), here are winters that featured nothing for Nov-Dec-Jan:

1900-1901: 1"
1910-1911: .1"
1923-1924: 4.7"
1931-1932: .1"
1933-1934: .4"
1940-1941: 4.1"
1946-1947: 1.3"
2011-2012: T
2014-2015: 3"

So at the very best, according to these historical numbers, you're looking at a 20% shot at normal snowfall`with a 50% chance of 1" or less.
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I might be wrong but I do think that KCLT officially had a Trace in 12/20…
 
CaryWx said:
Wait I though El ninos are better for us than Nina's correct? We just want weak Ninos then?
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Yes… weaker El Niño are preferred as moderate to strong ones tend to see the Pacific jet amp up and flood the continent with mild air
 
BullCityWx said:
I had originally thought so as well but it was not in the EF-6 for December.
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Wow… that’s surprising. Basically every reporting station in CLT metro recorded at least some sleet or snow that day (sleet counts as snowfall in official records). I know I had over 8 hours of sleet falling that day
 
CaryWx said:
Wait I though El ninos are better for us than Nina's correct? We just want weak Ninos then?
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Yeah, except the last time we had one, the Indian Ocean dipole or something made it act like a Nina. Seriously, I really don't know what to look for anymore. The atmosphere just always wants to make the east coast warmer it seems. The pacific seems to be in a phase where the convection in the maritimes messes us up more than not.
 
NCSNOW said:
The past week has reminded me once again, why I hate mod-strong El ninos and pray next years is below the moderate threshold.
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I don’t share this sentiment ha. Been some good mod-strong ones over the years (09-10, 02-03, 86-87, 87-88, 65-66, 57-58). It’s the Super Ninos that are the most problematic (15-16, 97-98), though strong-super ninos 82-83 & 72-73 were wintry. Climate change may be playing a role though as the weak El Niños haven’t been cold really since the 70’s…the last good one was 79-80 (AVL-GSO did have the big snow in Dec ‘18…Weak Nino)

It’s a trade off. Nino gives you the best chance at southern stream waves and gulf lows, with risks for mild west to east Pac flow at times. Nina gives you some cold outbreaks with risks for -PNA periods…but also, -AO/-NAO have been more common in Niña compared to Nino over the last 30 years

Regarding next winter, the general sentiment is that we move toward Nino, but it doesn’t look like to me that we are going boldly in that direction
 
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A mild February doesn't necessarily mean below average winter weather. Sometimes SER works in our favor, especially for ice. January is going to come out way above normal on temps in most of our locations, but we could still score a blockbuster storm the last week of the month.

It's fun to discuss and follow pattern recognition, but ultimately it doesn't correlate all that much with wintry weather in the Southeast, imo. I've seen lots of great patterns produce nothing, and lots of great wintry events in the midst of gross patterns. Overall, It's much more useful when discussing temperature anomalies, (but most of us aren't here to track cold/warm air events).
 
rburrel2 said:
A mild February doesn't necessarily mean below average winter weather. Sometimes SER works in our favor, especially for ice. January is going to come out way above normal on temps in most of our locations, but we could still score a blockbuster storm the last week of the month.

It's fun to discuss and follow pattern recognition, but ultimately it doesn't correlate all that much with wintry weather in the Southeast, imo. I've seen lots of great patterns produce nothing, and lots of great wintry events in the midst of gross patterns. Overall, It's much more useful when discussing temperature anomalies, (but most of us aren't here to track cold/warm air events).
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We could start by just getting average temperatures in our neck of the woods. Even the big trough on the eps really only pushes most locales closer to seasonal norms because there’s so much mild air in front of it
 
Chazwin said:
Yes… weaker El Niño are preferred as moderate to strong ones tend to see the Pacific jet amp up and flood the continent with mild air
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Another overlooked factor is the ENSO’s orientation. West based el-ninos are best, regardless of their strength. East based La Nina’s can mimic a WB El Niño and be quite good. East based El Niño’s are usually rough.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Anyone have a look at these? It’s leaking my interest. Heard the control might have been good tooView attachment 129753
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EPS looks better than GEFS, but don't get the sense it's enough to make it more interesting beyond rain -> backside NW flow snow for the mountains.

Small aside, but it's unfortunate that this look isn't giving more of a us an opportunity to see flakes:
eps_z500a_us_20.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
We could start by just getting average temperatures in our neck of the woods. Even the big trough on the eps really only pushes most locales closer to seasonal norms because there’s so much mild air in front of it
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IMO, what we really need to see to get some legitimate chances for those of us east of the mountains is some better snowpack in the northeast. It’s absolutely putrid right now especially considering we’re going into mid-January. Hopefully they to cash in later this week, so that we have a better chance at scoring on some CAD opportunities.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
CMC looking like it’s jogging to what some of the EPS was starting to support .. don’t write this one off completely yet for NC folks
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I want to think that as well but the jogs will need to continue on future runs. Take a few jumps actually to get in range of mby
 
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