Webberweather53
Meteorologist
You can already see the -PNA fixing to set up on the models around day 15-16 as the big Aleutian trough begins to retreat towards far eastern Siberia. I still don’t see much in the way of +EAMT to save us.
Wait, don't tell me you put any faith in a day-16 weather model forecast. Don't you have anything positive to say?You can already see the -PNA fixing to set up on the models around day 15-16 as the big Aleutian trough begins to retreat towards far eastern Siberia. I still don’t see much in the way of +EAMT to save us.
He just speaking the truth …Wait, don't tell me you put any faith in a day-16 weather model forecast. Don't you have anything positive to say?
2023-01-01 | 58 | 48 | 53.0 | 12.9 | 12 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0 |
2023-01-02 | 59 | 44 | 51.5 | 11.5 | 13 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0 |
2023-01-03 | 68 | 53 | 60.5 | 20.5 | 4 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.0 | 0 |
2023-01-04 | 62 | 56 | 59.0 | 19.1 | 6 | 0 | 0.83 | 0.0 | 0 |
2023-01-05 | 65 | 43 | 54.0 | 14.2 | 11 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0 |
2023-01-06 | 55 | 35 | 45.0 | 5.3 | 20 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0 |
2023-01-07 | 50 | 32 | 41.0 | 1.3 | 24 | 0 | T | 0.0 | 0 |
2023-01-08 | 37 | 33 | 35.0 | -4.6 | 30 | 0 | 0.18 | M | M |
Wait, don't tell me you put any faith in a day-16 weather model forecast. Don't you have anything positive to say?
Fwiw, this my general sentiment on January (as things currently stand)
-The first week or so is very likely going to be warm & fairly wet/stormy. Need to be on the lookout for severe weather across the lower MS Valley & Gulf coast especially.
Once we get to/past Jan 10th ish, we should see more of a canonical El Nino/+PNA pattern return. We'll probably progressively step down from this super mild pattern to a seasonable one, that eventually becomes rather cool again as we move into mid-late January.
Imho, after this potential chance ~Dec 26-27th or so, our next best window is probably somewhere in/around the 3rd week of January (~ Jan 14-25 ish). There may very well be a storm or two that shows up between now & then, but the air masses earlier on in January are more liable to be stale, more temperate continental polar ones, capable of delivering snow primarily to climo favored areas of the Appalachian mountains, etc.
I also tentatively suspect we may see the -EPO also make a return sometime late in January and eventually evolve into a more classic -EPO/-PNA/SE ridge La Nina pattern in February (typical evolution for a winter like this).
IF KCLT blanks in January(which is more likely right now than not), here are winters that featured nothing for Nov-Dec-Jan:
1900-1901: 1"
1910-1911: .1"
1923-1924: 4.7"
1931-1932: .1"
1933-1934: .4"
1940-1941: 4.1"
1946-1947: 1.3"
2011-2012: T
2014-2015: 3"
So at the very best, according to these historical numbers, you're looking at a 20% shot at normal snowfall`with a 50% chance of 1" or less.
IF KCLT blanks in January(which is more likely right now than not), here are winters that featured nothing for Nov-Dec-Jan:
1900-1901: 1"
1910-1911: .1"
1923-1924: 4.7"
1931-1932: .1"
1933-1934: .4"
1940-1941: 4.1"
1946-1947: 1.3"
2011-2012: T
2014-2015: 3"
So at the very best, according to these historical numbers, you're looking at a 20% shot at normal snowfall`with a 50% chance of 1" or less.
Wait I though El ninos are better for us than Nina's correct? We just want weak Ninos then?The past week has reminded me once again, why I hate mod-strong El ninos and pray next years is below the moderate threshold.
Worth mentioning to that of these winters, all the above normal ones (1923-24, 1940-41, 2014-15) were El Nino winters, so the odds are probably even lower than 20% if I had to guess.
The deck is/has been stacked against us getting a good snowy winter ever since we missed our opportunity in December. Could happen, but it's a huge long shot.
I might be wrong but I do think that KCLT officially had a Trace in 12/20…IF KCLT blanks in January(which is more likely right now than not), here are winters that featured nothing for Nov-Dec-Jan:
1900-1901: 1"
1910-1911: .1"
1923-1924: 4.7"
1931-1932: .1"
1933-1934: .4"
1940-1941: 4.1"
1946-1947: 1.3"
2011-2012: T
2014-2015: 3"
So at the very best, according to these historical numbers, you're looking at a 20% shot at normal snowfall`with a 50% chance of 1" or less.
I had originally thought so as well but it was not in the EF-6 for December.I might be wrong but I do think that KCLT officially had a Trace in 12/20…
Yes… weaker El Niño are preferred as moderate to strong ones tend to see the Pacific jet amp up and flood the continent with mild airWait I though El ninos are better for us than Nina's correct? We just want weak Ninos then?
Wow… that’s surprising. Basically every reporting station in CLT metro recorded at least some sleet or snow that day (sleet counts as snowfall in official records). I know I had over 8 hours of sleet falling that dayI had originally thought so as well but it was not in the EF-6 for December.
Wait I though El ninos are better for us than Nina's correct? We just want weak Ninos then?
I don’t share this sentiment ha. Been some good mod-strong ones over the years (09-10, 02-03, 86-87, 87-88, 65-66, 57-58). It’s the Super Ninos that are the most problematic (15-16, 97-98), though strong-super ninos 82-83 & 72-73 were wintry. Climate change may be playing a role though as the weak El Niños haven’t been cold really since the 70’s…the last good one was 79-80 (AVL-GSO did have the big snow in Dec ‘18…Weak Nino)The past week has reminded me once again, why I hate mod-strong El ninos and pray next years is below the moderate threshold.
A mild February doesn't necessarily mean below average winter weather. Sometimes SER works in our favor, especially for ice. January is going to come out way above normal on temps in most of our locations, but we could still score a blockbuster storm the last week of the month.
It's fun to discuss and follow pattern recognition, but ultimately it doesn't correlate all that much with wintry weather in the Southeast, imo. I've seen lots of great patterns produce nothing, and lots of great wintry events in the midst of gross patterns. Overall, It's much more useful when discussing temperature anomalies, (but most of us aren't here to track cold/warm air events).
No you didn't go and throw AGW into this thread now Webb
Another overlooked factor is the ENSO’s orientation. West based el-ninos are best, regardless of their strength. East based La Nina’s can mimic a WB El Niño and be quite good. East based El Niño’s are usually rough.Yes… weaker El Niño are preferred as moderate to strong ones tend to see the Pacific jet amp up and flood the continent with mild air
That was the one I mentioned to earlierAnyone have a look at these? It’s leaking my interest. Heard the control might have been good tooView attachment 129753
EPS looks better than GEFS, but don't get the sense it's enough to make it more interesting beyond rain -> backside NW flow snow for the mountains.Anyone have a look at these? It’s leaking my interest. Heard the control might have been good tooView attachment 129753
IMO, what we really need to see to get some legitimate chances for those of us east of the mountains is some better snowpack in the northeast. It’s absolutely putrid right now especially considering we’re going into mid-January. Hopefully they to cash in later this week, so that we have a better chance at scoring on some CAD opportunities.We could start by just getting average temperatures in our neck of the woods. Even the big trough on the eps really only pushes most locales closer to seasonal norms because there’s so much mild air in front of it
I want to think that as well but the jogs will need to continue on future runs. Take a few jumps actually to get in range of mbyCMC looking like it’s jogging to what some of the EPS was starting to support .. don’t write this one off completely yet for NC folks