ULL looks weaker tho, so CAA is weaker, especially at 850mb
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Jessy89
Member
12z is even less of a event. Things are definitely headed in the wrong direction today.
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That thing closed off southwest and early. I liked it. But we lost our confluence on that run? Great track either way. We hug..assuming the GFS is right..lol ??
whatalife
Moderator
The 00z EURO and 12z GFS
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The last run was too far north, this one was too far south. I'm not too concerned with the GFS, I'd rather have south then north. I'm not excited that the 50/50 low is further east though.
Jessy89
Member
By the time it really gets going it’s not cold enough.
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Although It's not totally a non-event
Jessy89
Member
It basically becomes a hurricane lol. 982pressure
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I would have liked to have seen what she would have done with that funnel of confluence still in tact. Would have been a pretty run
Jessy89
Member
The biggest problem here is cold air. It’s a very marginal setup.
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Cad Wedge NC
Member
Euro will be interesting. If it shows something similar, I would not sweat the details. All I want to see at this point is for the Euro to show a storm. We'll see.
Forevertothee
Member
I don’t think we are anywhere near seeing what will actually occur yet. The players are on the field . Will the SE score is yet to be determined. It’s at least promising we have had 2 events to monitor this December. Beats the hell out of 70s and torching all month. Much different feel this year.
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Jessy89
Member
Well look everyone keeps saying the gfs has been consistent in a storm. Yes that’s True but every run has been dramatically different. Yes perhaps there’s a storm. But it very well may just be a rain event for many people. Cold air is marginal. If only this was mid January.
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RollTide18
Member
Another ULL over my area with marginal temps, sounds like last winter.
Regardless, another threading the needle event it appears, everything has to be timed and placed perfectly.
It’s one model run... some of y’all really need to know the importance of trends and what a trend is ... over long periods of runs 3-4 or more is where u see trends not a spoof one run.. even with this run the storm is still showing up and we haven’t even seen the ensembles yet and that’s the most important part of any model.
Does it really matter whether its Late December or Mid January ?
Jessy89
Member
They probably be a better source of cold air around mid January.
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Yes it was a beautiful track for a low but as is usual give me the cold air first and work out precip later