According to the weeklies, the fundamental indexes look good:
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
Means aren’t really exactly where we want them to be but the variability is there enough to say it could lean either way. Id love to see that control run lol looks like a doosey
What am I missing here? The NAO is positive, the PNA goes negative and the AO goes positive around the time everyone says we get colder. Not that it's correct but that doesn't look good to me.
Six Mile Wx
Member
The Euro says go to Siberia if you want Cold air.
AO and NAO drop off a cliff on the control run at least around the 16th
The variability means you could be in either side of what we want. This is months ahead of time which mean little to no accuracy as well. Don’t look into it too much
dsaur
Member
I like the look when the cold air starts to encroach, with a washed out frontal boundary, and a low forming. Get the old front to be real, and get a low to pop in the gulf and move up the old boundary, instead of off the coast...and get the cold air in place.....lol, yeah it's the south...lots of if, if, if. But whenever I hear "split flow" I know the improbable just got more probabler
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I still really don't see anything to get excited about until at least mid-month.
Yep agree, although these are probably the best runs yet on the ensembles with them lowering heights in the Atlantic quite a bit. Still, the airmass is stale around our region so not much to get excited about, but deepening the stuff in the Atlantic wouldn’t hurt. Looks like your classic mountain big dog pattern though
This is not far off. Lowering heights in the Atlantic is crucial here. It’s a pattern that can harbor juicy southern stream waves, we just need a supply of cold (50/50 low/deepening low in the Atlantic around mid month). Without it, we are just gonna get a cold rain. We need some sort of northern stream energy to dig down with a prior wave and phase with a pacific wave best case scenario so it can bomb out around the 50/50 region. then things get interesting. Looks like a MA/NE and mountain pattern for now but the GEFS had a couple big dogs with this look, all thanks to the lower ATL heights 
bigstick10
Member
By the looks of things, this winter looks like a disaster, again. If we did not have the cold snap recently it could be the warmest on record, IMO???? Please someone throw me a bone and prove me wrong. I love cold and snow, but it looks dreadful. We are not going to get ice or snow with temps in the 50s/30s.
Warmest on record ? Are you serious dude ? smh, it hasn’t even hit January yet. Tossing winter in late December is something else
bigstick10
Member
I am not the only one on here thinking the same thing, you have no room to talk wishing for warm all the time. Look at your extended maps you slather on here all the time, not a good look for winter fans.
Not a great map, but This is the look I would want to show up on ensembles if you want a good looking snow pattern, note the lower heights in the ATL here is crucial, and a Rockies centric ridge, this is why you get “big dogs” in ninos because of these sorts of looks. You keep an active pacific jet, but if you time right with w SE can vortex/Atlantic low, then you got something. Not there yet on ensembles, but I’m starting to become encouraged by trends, it’s certainly that pattern if we get right, has more big dog potential then usual
What I want to see
Gefs
What I want to see
Gefs
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@Ollie Williams isn’t that map I made close to your big dog composite ?
That's a lot of average coming
Six Mile Wx
Member
A tale of 3 different model ensembles for January 10th-11th
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
After blowing our chance for a big winter storm after Christmas, I still definitely think we're going to see the +PNA show up around mid-month as we slowly transition from this +EPO/GOA trough/Super Nino pattern to a more classic -EPO/-PNA/La Nina pattern in February & thus, mid-late Jan (Jan 14-25 ish) is probably our best opportunity for a winter storm in DJF. When the MJO returns to the Warm Pool again, that will probably harken the onset of a -EPO/-PNA/SE ridge pattern & you're starting to see NWP models hint at this in early Feb.
The hope here is w/ West QBO, the Aleutian ridge will be taller than usual and be able to extend into & north of Alaska (allowing for at least more transient shots of brutally cold air and perhaps another opportunity or two for winter weather in Feb), but we'll be fighting against downward coupling from the stratospheric polar vortex by then, which will try to suppress the ridge to the south & keep the heights lower over the polar cap region.