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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Something to keep in mind during this timeframe that temp have been average if best. There's a lot that can go wrong here.




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ICON looks to be setting up a major ice storm/wedge event at 174hrs. Key here is the 50/50 block is strong and in good position. If the 50/50 plays out that way I don't see how CAD area's miss this storm due to warmth... i'd be more worried about suppression. Also important that our storm doesn't have a northern stream wave attached to it mucking up the confluence over the great lakes/new england. GFS has been doing this each run. Screen Shot 2023-01-05 at 10.49.43 AM.png
 
iGRXY said:
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Yeah this likely would lead to some type of storm in the CAD areas of NC/SC/VA/NEGA.
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Not too sure tbh. A high of 1038 strength that far north in a progressive pattern probably doesn’t get things done. Our prime placement for CAD events is a high much further south in PA. This would most likely skirt out and we’re left with a cold rain for most
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Not too sure tbh. A high of 1038 strength that far north in a progressive pattern probably doesn’t get things done. Our prime placement for CAD events is a high much further south in PA. This would most likely skirt out and we’re left with a cold rain for most
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We can score CAD off of low 1030 HP. You put a almost 1040 HP in SE Canada with a deepening 50/50 and that almost certainly would get the job done. Typical location is the NE but everywhere from the NE, MA, and SE Canada will get the job done, especially when you start pushing past 1033-1035mlb
 
iGRXY said:
We can score CAD off of low 1030 HP. You put an almost 1040 HP in SE Canada with a deepening 50/50 and that almost certainly would get the job done. Typical location is the NE but everywhere from the NE, MA, and SE Canada will get the job done, especially when you start pushing past 1033-1035mlb
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Even with the 50/50 the pattern is progressive you would need the storm moving in much quicker to take advantage of the quick hitting cold and dry air. It’s fleeting at the end of the icon similar to the current gfs
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Even with the 50/50 the pattern is progressive you would need the storm moving in much quicker to take advantage of the quick hitting cold and dry air. It’s fleeting at the end of the icon similar to the current gfs
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Difference is it is deepening and in-situ with a border line 1040 HP would work. We rarely get an anchored HP in this day and time anyways. It may not be good enough for eastern NC, but for those of use back west? Yes it would work and would hold enough low level cold air to get something frozen.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Not too sure tbh. A high of 1038 strength that far north in a progressive pattern probably doesn’t get things done. Our prime placement for CAD events is a high much further south in PA. This would most likely skirt out and we’re left with a cold rain for most
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Ideally I would like to see this all a bit further south. Move that H over to about upstate NY and push that low down to the gulf coast, tracking to Jacksonville. I am worried this setup, as modeled here, is way too marginal for areas East of apps and outside the mtns. This is more typical of what has become the norm; its a chance but needs some work for many of us. I expect a ton of changes over the next week and it may not look anything like this at go time; Time of day will also be key for many.
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iGRXY said:
Difference is it is deepening and in-situ with a border line 1040 HP would work. We rarely get an anchored HP in this day and time anyways. It may not be good enough for eastern NC, but for those of use back west? Yes it would work and would hold enough low level cold air to get something frozen.
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Verbatim there’s too much WAA you’ll end up with a 12z gfs solution. Cold rain. But maybe the upper level low can bring some cold air down to surprise us after the initial blow. Still we’re far from the end game here but this has always been a thread the needle type of threat.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Verbatim there’s too much WAA you’ll end up with a 12z gfs solution. Cold rain. But maybe the upper level low can bring some cold air down to surprise us after the initial blow. Still we’re far from the end game here but this has always been a thread the needle type of threat.
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It's not a thread the needle event... but a surface low tracking through Chicago definitely misses the goal posts.
 
CMC missed the confluence completely and therefor it sharted on all of us. Listen we got a long way to go with this one but if you miss confluence in 50/50 land forget about anything positive happening winter weather wise. When everything has to come together in a nice neat bow 200 hours out it’s probably best to pump the breaks on high hopes for winter weather. Lots of fail out potentials here
 
The GEFS looks terrible for snow chances over the next 10 days for anyone south of Kentucky. There are maybe three low placements in the southeast at 180 hours and they are all 100% rain. There is just no source for significant cold air and the mean storm track is through the midwest. It looks like October. I think we need to let this one go. Maybe it gets better the week of the 20th through 27th? Maybe it will be the last chance?
 
Anyone else get colder than forecasted this morning? It was supposed to be anywhere from 38-35 Degrees but the actual low temp was 31 here this morning. I’ll take it during this dumpster fire pattern we are in. Of course the high was supposed to be 48 and I’m already at 50. ?
 
rburrel2 said:
That's a major incoming Wedge ice/mixed bag storm for CAD area's.View attachment 129431View attachment 129432
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Verbatim this is too warm. It’s maybe onset ice for the mountains. High is retreating and north of where we ideally want it while our storm still has 12-24 hours until it moves in. This run would probably look similar to the 12z GFS if it kept up
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Verbatim this is too warm. It’s maybe onset ice for the mountains. High is retreating and north of where we ideally want it while our storm still has 12-24 hours until it moves in. This run would probably look similar to the 12z GFS if it kept up
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Um, No....


oScreen Shot 2023-01-05 at 1.11.56 PM.pngScreen Shot 2023-01-05 at 1.11.45 PM.png
 
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metwannabe said:
Ukie fired first warning shots to burst our arctic snow potential bubble, so seeing this is good
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Yep certainly love to see the ukie on the right side where we want it. Hopefully euro follows suit. Then we can discard the bad gfs and usually wild swinging cmc and icon
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Verbatim this is too warm. It’s maybe onset ice for the mountains. High is retreating and north of where we ideally want it while our storm still has 12-24 hours until it moves in. This run would probably look similar to the 12z GFS if it kept up
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And the ICON is always too warm on the surface. Been a known bias since the models birth.
 
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