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Pattern Jammin January 2023

bigstick10 said:
Yes, and it thunders all the time in the tropics
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What does that have to do with anything? We aren't in the tropics now are we? Listen I get you like to troll and doom and gloom all day, but it really isn't necessary. It's January and there's a hope of something out there. Why not just wait and see lol?
 
iGRXY said:
Old wise tale about it snows 10 days after a thunderstorm in winter. Been told for decades in the south. Along with watch the animals and if the birds are feeding heavily in the days leading up to a winter storm potential.
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Brad P posted this a couple hours ago, right on cue. As you can see from the graphic, it worked out a couple times last winter.
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iGRXY said:
Lets be honest and I hate it for the other areas in the southeast, but 9/10, especially in this decade, we are a CAD/Miller B storm progression. Miller A's are fun for everybody and they tend to get nice paste jobs across the entire south, but those are the old days. I said back during December that I thought we would almost certainly get something (my logic was due to how much noise the ensembles had), and it was a fun thing to see the potential for an old day board wide hit, but that didn't work out. But when you start honking Miller B's, that's when my ears perk because we can get them in even the worst patterns. They're much easier to score and tend to happen more often than not because the ridge has lived on the east coast for 10 years now and we just need a solid 50/50 to anchor is CAA and ridging builds in the HP needed for CAD. Now I won't say we score, but this is one that has a much more realistic shot of happening IMO. Problem is I hope we get a similar scenario like last year with a solid FGEN front thumping or get the low to just ride far enough south we stay mostly snow. But ice would definitely be my biggest concern in a setup like this.
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Yeah… definitely Miller Bs are preferred for both of our areas… especially in a set up like this that is obviously less than slam dunk.
 
CltNative90 said:
Brad P posted this a couple hours ago, right on cue. As you can see from the graphic, it worked out a couple times last winter.
View attachment 129355
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There’s probably some physical connection in some situations where a storm passes to our NW and we end up getting into the warm sector of it, with a big swath of snow somewhere over the northern us or southern Canada. Over time, in a stormy pattern, subsequent storms will tend to sink southward as snow cover from previous systems pushes the baroclinic zone to the south, yielding a more favorable pattern for cold/snow
 
ATLwxfan said:
You folks in the Carolinas can track your storm. We’ve firmly moved on the severe season in Georgia.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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It's still so far out that we're all in it right now.

12z Canadian:
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This thing may not even materialize for anybody. We need to get this inside 7 days to really take it seriously.
 
ILMRoss said:
kinda surprised there's less chatter on the EPS... miller b hijinks sure but this looks... really good?
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Yeah it's a good look alright and there have been several runs with a signal on the euro. Not sure everybody is awake on it yet. :)
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
GFS looks better imo, that wave entering the US is much further south so far, and the main northern stream energy is digging more north of the lakes View attachment 129362
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Goes more gung hoe on the first wave and the second one is kind of meh.. still though it’s the gfs with a bad skill score so it honestly doesn’t look terrible for a workable solution this far out.. don’t wanna be in a bullseye every run 200+ hours out
 
Good news! The 18z GFS is a dud. Since we all know it is completely clueless at this range, it's a great time to make a bread, milk, and beer run.
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My point forcast has me at 35 Friday night. I've seen plenty of snow fall in the mid 30s's, even low 40's...if the column is cold enough down to near the ground, but my point is made. Snow chance is not over, nor is winter...we just need timing. Just because it's clear Friday just means the timing is not right, lol. It will be plenty cold enough, if many other factors come into play. Timing to get a cold column, with warm ground and water to mix. Like a good spring snow. I can understand all the angst, but beyond 3 days, it's just babble....if we end up with an 8 inch spring snow April 2nd. It'll melt while it's falling, but it's still snow, and will count on the snoOmeter.
 
18z EPS continuing to amplify the pattern in Canada even more, and digging the Arctic energy more this run, note the ridge in central/western Canada, is trending stronger. This helps the northern stream energy dig and interact more with the prior southern wave, this increases the chances of a colder 50/50 low 065D2B3C-30A5-4498-83AA-2282E968E3CF.gif
 
This is in no way down playing the storm threat. It may have legs. But when it comes to a cold pattern later we now know the fly in the ointment and why a torch is shown over cold with phase 8. The SPV is strong despite what some say. It's becoming increasingly likely January is going to be a dumpster fire for cold. I really hope we can steal this event because the pattern still looks horrible going forward.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
This is in no way down playing the storm threat. It may have legs. But when it comes to a cold pattern later we now know the fly in the ointment and why a torch is shown over cold with phase 8. The SPV is strong despite what some say. It's becoming increasingly likely January is going to be a dumpster fire for cold. I really hope we can steal this event because the pattern still looks horrible going forward.
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Looks like after the threat, we go back to a very warm pattern as the pacific jet flattens, and everything gets chopped off in the fast zonal pattern. It’s a very similar evolution to jan 2020. We better score later next week
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Looks like after the threat, we go back to a very warm pattern as the pacific jet flattens, and everything gets chopped off in the fast zonal pattern. It’s a very similar evolution to jan 2020. We better score later next week
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Fro, is there anything to slow or retract the jet for a while instead of just a few days?
 
Itryatgolf said:
Fro, is there anything to slow or retract the jet for a while instead of just a few days?
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Don’t see it right now, troposphere looks to become hostile to any attempt at ridging going up, we had a similar issue in 2020, we will probably see a Aleutian ridge at some point develop around late jan, but other then the short window around mid month, I don’t see much right now, we probably go from that short decent look to a +EPO/neutral to -PNA, to a Aleutian ridge/-PNA
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Don’t see it right now, troposphere looks to become hostile to any attempt at ridging going up, we had a similar issue in 2020, we will probably see a Aleutian ridge at some point develop around late jan, but other then the short window around mid month, I don’t see much right now, we probably go from that short decent look to a +EPO/neutral to -PNA, to a Aleutian ridge/-PNA
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I think we can hope for now that the Aleutian ridge isn't flat, because a poleward Aleutian ridge may give us our best opportunity compared to a flat ridge
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Looks like after the threat, we go back to a very warm pattern as the pacific jet flattens, and everything gets chopped off in the fast zonal pattern. It’s a very similar evolution to jan 2020. We better score later next week
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Yep. Obviously something can sneak in at anytime like the 13th threat is doing. And I'm sure we'll have a lot of average days in there. But this is far from Jan 2022. Definitely not a great spot to be in going forward if you want sustained below average temps and multiple storm chances.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
This is in no way down playing the storm threat. It may have legs. But when it comes to a cold pattern later we now know the fly in the ointment and why a torch is shown over cold with phase 8. The SPV is strong despite what some say. It's becoming increasingly likely January is going to be a dumpster fire for cold. I really hope we can steal this event because the pattern still looks horrible going forward.
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Basically what I’ve been saying for a day or two

This graphic here shows the areas of the conus where it’s cold or warm from certain phases of the MJO at least 60% of the time. Notice there’s no blue over the E US except in New England
B26AE75F-4088-4AAA-A0A2-0419310BC62F.png
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
This is in no way down playing the storm threat. It may have legs. But when it comes to a cold pattern later we now know the fly in the ointment and why a torch is shown over cold with phase 8. The SPV is strong despite what some say. It's becoming increasingly likely January is going to be a dumpster fire for cold. I really hope we can steal this event because the pattern still looks horrible going forward.
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A few things to consider:

1. In that paper, the NAM (Northern Annular Mode) at 100mb was used as the criteria for the strength of the SPV (1 std deviation above normal for strong, 1 std deviation below normal for weak). I don't have an ensemble image for the forecasted NAM state, but the 00z run of the GFS from last night shows a forecasted NAM value at 100mb to be slightly above normal (it changes run to run on the GFS of course, moreso than if you had an ensemble avg). You can see that the contour for 1 std deviation above normal does dip into the 100mb level for a few days, but overall, this shows a NAM that is only slightly above normal in strength at 100mb (it was weaker than normal thru Dec as shown via the negative values in orange).

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2. For the MJO, the 500mb composites were based on 10 to 14 days after the MJO was in phase 7 / 8. That could be a significant amount of days depending on how fast the MJO is moving...but that factors into the resultant composites. Also, the months of Oct-Mar were used in the composites...that's a long date range, and it's important to note the MJO effects on the 500mb pattern vary based on the date of the year (e.g. typical Phase 2 effects in December are different than the effects in March).

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Anyway, those are just a few things I wanted to point out about that paper. No one has figured all this crap out and has all the answers with long range forecasting, but at least people are trying
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Looks like after the threat, we go back to a very warm pattern as the pacific jet flattens, and everything gets chopped off in the fast zonal pattern. It’s a very similar evolution to jan 2020. We better score later next week
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Yep. Notice the GEFS weeklies, Euro weeklies, & CFS weeklies also show the MJO reaching the Maritime Continent by early Feb, favors a big warm up

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