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Pattern Jammin January 2023

bigstick10 said:
I am not the only one on here thinking the same thing, you have no room to talk wishing for warm all the time. Look at your extended maps you slather on here all the time, not a good look for winter fans.
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Most of our December featured below normal temps. I and many other said even before Christmas to get ready for nothing but warm until January 15th generally. Once we get there we will see more opportunities for cold and winter weather potential. It’s been said over and over and over again. Don’t except anything positive on models until January 15th. This warm air was all but modeled way ahead of time. We knew this was coming. I’m seeing signs in the models of a Strat warming event possibly stretching the PV along with moving into favorable MJO phases and a jet that should relax mid month giving plenty of opportunity to score again. There is a worry that February could feature warmer temps again but lots can happen between now and then and march has proven that it has to be watched as well for winter potential.
 
The next time the MJO returns to the Warm Pool will probably harken the onset of a traditional -PNA/SE ridge pattern, the complete opposite of what we're gonna see the next 2-3 weeks. Timing wise, early February still seems about right to me for this to occur, which is consistent w/ most other La Nina winters like this year, which often evolve from a cool December -> mixed January -> & eventually a mild-warm Feb in the SE and E US. Although the GEFS can be fast sometimes, this forecast below doesn't seem too unreasonable.

gfs-ens_chi200Mean_global_fh168-840.gif
 
Ollie Williams said:
Very close, except the ridge centered a bit more to the west. This is the most updated map because I found a bug in my script.
View attachment 129062
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Nice!

Need to give things a little more time for the circulation anomalies to retrograde west against the mean flow compared to the week 2 forecasts we’re seeing on models
 
What is the typical lag, if any, for the effects that have been correlated with the MJO’s phase to come to fruition in CONUS? Maybe Ollie or Webber could help me out with this.
 
Today has been a soaker to say the least and temps back down in the 50s. Gonna lose Wednesdays warmth to the rains as well. Sure Im not alone,but the timing messed up my 18holes today. Hopefully the Dawgs and Horned Frogs can pull it out tonight.
 
SD said:
I'm feeling a nice rain ending as mush system here
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It’s basically jan 2021 again. That was a nina that featured a strong pacific jet that month. Several close wet snow calls that month but we fell short due to marginal temps, there was 2-3 systems that ended as snow though, just didn’t accumulate well here
 
My gut feeling is we step down next week to at or slightly below normal while the PNA and NAO go where we want them to be. Seven to ten days after those setup is when we need to watch.

I don’t think it can’t snow in the interlude between now and prime time, I just don’t see it being much at all.
 
getting some different looks on the ensembles in the longer range now. Gefs and EPS look good, back the GOA trough the way we want towards the Aleutian Islands, but the CMCE isn’t the best and keeps a rather +EPO and sends the low back to Okhotsk. But not bad looks from the GEFS and EPS respectively. Still want lower heights in the Atlantic though, but if we can get connection from the TPV in Canada, like last winter, then it’s a solid pattern A572FBC2-C75B-4BFF-94F1-6338C1F2B117.pngB4030A3A-4129-45BD-A2A2-9153B3E37182.png166E45A3-5F88-45E8-9A9A-D4871F5D1AF3.png
 
BullCityWx said:
I knew it was 97 or 98!
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I remember because Boone had 17” from that one which made it the biggest storm in my 4 years there. The January 1996 storm had 13”, but was a higher impact with cold it stayed for a week after the storm
 
Even though these are ensembles past 300 hours and can change every run. I like where the best performers are. One looks a bit different (he’s special got to get under 150 for him to see how things are suppose to turn out) Tons of time for changes as well. E17BDFB6-3900-429B-B7F5-63F4592188D7.jpeg5AD6D794-B347-4AEA-8FD4-B09B538088F6.jpeg10D2009D-A835-493F-ADD3-66004321FAF8.jpeg
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Even though these are ensembles past 300 hours and can change every run. I like where the best performers are. One looks a bit different (he’s special got to get under 150 for him to see how things are suppose to turn out) Tons of time for changes as well. View attachment 129107View attachment 129108View attachment 129109
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I personally think the EPS makes the most sense to me here. We have the +PNA and E US trough, but without a low over Atlantic Canada, this pattern verbatim looks pretty marginal outside the mountains at the middle of the month.

Given another few days or so after the day 15 EPS that may be a different story, at least for a brief period of time before I think the GOA-Aleutian ridge/-PNA ultimately comes back
 
CaryWx said:
Bastardi? I'm as excited as a little girl
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What's wrong with that?
Isn't that why most of us are here during late Fall to early Spring tracking any possibility of a few flakes or ice pellets!
Also in the dead of winter hoping for that Big Dog Miller A?
It's the "Weather Brick' in all of us...
Happy New Year & Happy Tracking.
Hope we get the big one board wide.
 
Billypg70 said:
What's wrong with that?
Isn't that why most of us are here during late Fall to early Spring tracking any possibility of a few flakes or ice pellets!
Also in the dead of winter hoping for that Big Dog Miller A?
It's the "Weather Brick' in all of us...
Happy New Year & Happy Tracking.
Hope we get the big one board wide.
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Not knocking our excitement here about loving winter weather but mocking his tease post. Just show us the baby man.

Happy New Year!
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Even though these are ensembles past 300 hours and can change every run. I like where the best performers are. One looks a bit different (he’s special got to get under 150 for him to see how things are suppose to turn out) Tons of time for changes as well. View attachment 129107View attachment 129108View attachment 129109
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Don’t be fooled by the lower heights sitting over the East Coast. Notice the heights lowering over the West Coast and heights raising over the East Pacific. That indicates to me that models are sniffing out a retracted jet and -PNA. I’m not excited about the favorability of this pattern.
 
Dang check out how low that pressure is. Just like the Christmas blizzard.
 

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