• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jammin January 2023

I’m sorry, but I’m serious, you can ask folks on here, Im a snow weenie, but I’m the biggest warm weenie here besides lick. look at the Feb/March/April/May threads from last year
Come on Fro. We all know. Hang in there buddy. You and lick still have quite a ways to go till May. But you live in the southeast. You will get your warmups as always but im afraid more cold is coming down the road for you also as it's not even January yet. For now though, the 10 day or so warmup will give you and lick a much needed chance to thaw out and knock the ice off. Enjoy your warm up.
 
Also, this is just antidotal, but I don't agree with people rooting for the coldest part of the polar vortex to be on our side of the globe. In general, it almost always winds up staying more stationary in northern Canada and we get SE ridge treatment, or cold/dry with cutters in between.

Just my opinion going off memory from the last 20 years of winter pattern watching.
We have already seen what super cold air can do for us in these latitudes.
 
Interesting tweet here. But like Fro pointed out earlier, 50/50 region isnt an exact match to validate this point imo.

View attachment 128827
But Joe is missing a key element on this map. Lower heights over the Atlantic. This look is all fine and dandy in getting moisture, but there's no cold air around. The snow is dead in the SE -- this should say something.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-east-snow_96hr_inch-3524800.png
 
But Joe is missing a key element on this map. Lower heights over the Atlantic. This look is all fine and dandy in getting moisture, but there's no cold air around. The snow is dead in the SE -- this should say something.

View attachment 128828
Yep no 50/50 low with the look showing up mid jan. It’s been a struggle all winter long so far. The look showing up is a mid pattern at best. Favors mountain and interior NE snow events and cold rains around here. It isn’t a snow look or a look to even get excited about. 50/50 low is a key element in NC winter storms
 
But Joe is missing a key element on this map. Lower heights over the Atlantic. This look is all fine and dandy in getting moisture, but there's no cold air around. The snow is dead in the SE -- this should say something.

View attachment 128828
And the block N of Ak
 
But Joe is missing a key element on this map. Lower heights over the Atlantic. This look is all fine and dandy in getting moisture, but there's no cold air around. The snow is dead in the SE -- this should say something.

View attachment 128828
Well we saw this map look great for the end of December for a few weeks and we see how that turned out. So this map really means nothing lol
 
I’ll continue to say as I’ve always thought. Pattern change is not coming early to mid January. It’s mid to late January when we should see colder and more potential for storms of the winter variety. Everyone should be expecting warmer than usual weather through January 15th. That’s always been the expectation.
 
The end of the run, I would love to see that happen. It looks similar to this past week. However, with a more active STJ. What confuses me is the block heading to the Aleutian with a stormy Russia. Thought a more active Siberia was bad.


cfs-daily-all-avg-globe-z500_anom_7day-1672142400-1674518400-1675987200-10.gif
 

Attachments

  • cfs-daily-all-avg-globe-z500_anom_7day-1672142400-1674518400-1675987200-10.gif
    cfs-daily-all-avg-globe-z500_anom_7day-1672142400-1674518400-1675987200-10.gif
    4.6 MB · Views: 25
I know this is a weather forum and we talk weather, but like I mentioned a few days ago, we take a long break until at least mid January, we won't miss anything or probably later than that. Hopefully we get into a favorable pattern sometime in January so we don't totally lose that month
 
But Joe is missing a key element on this map. Lower heights over the Atlantic. This look is all fine and dandy in getting moisture, but there's no cold air around. The snow is dead in the SE -- this should say something.

View attachment 128828
In his video he said mid Atlantic and northeast. Never mentioned southeast as far as after the torch
 
GFS brings releif from the heat wave by Jan 6th. If you go back and look theres a 24 hour period where it snows over 60 inches in the Sierra Nevada and its still spitting snow on this frame. But thats insane rates for 24 hrs. Course its also the gfs op
 

Attachments

  • 1672202455976.png
    1672202455976.png
    1.1 MB · Views: 49
Yeah this could work during fros torch. This is that polar pacific air. Yes it’s not overwhelming cold but in January this is cold enough stuff that we can certainly work with. Models have trended to some sort of low pressure moving like this transiently off the coast.. it’s interesting and something to watch on models as we move forward. But don’t let anyone tell you we still can’t score even during periods that appear not as favorable. (I still believe we’re generally mild through January 15th but doesn’t mean we still can’t make something happen) 98F140F0-9CE5-429D-BDF2-375D45AB7070.jpeg01ED418F-2639-4C0E-AEDB-4FCE434BC5F1.jpeg
 
Maybe that will happen and no one can accuse me of being a snow optimist but usually when the US east of the rockies is warm then Alaska and the west are colder than normal. No way that verifies. Either its warm here and cold in Alaska or it will be the opposite but not both.
 
You know it’s a bad pattern, when this is your snow mean heading into early/mid January View attachment 128860
It doesn't do us much good when it's loaded with snowy members either. But, like you, I'm not expecting much in the way of wintry threats for the next couple of weeks. Fortunately for us cold lovers, our weather prediction tools don't seem to have a lot of skill past 2 or 3 weeks. So, it's entirely possible that we could start seeing signs of a change back in the next few days. Plus, we really haven't had any sustained 6 week patterns in a good while. I doubt that changes all of a sudden.
 
It doesn't do us much good when it's loaded with snowy members either. But, like you, I'm not expecting much in the way of wintry threats for the next couple of weeks. Fortunately for us cold lovers, our weather prediction tools don't seem to have a lot of skill past 2 or 3 weeks. So, it's entirely possible that we could start seeing signs of a change back in the next few days. Plus, we really haven't had any sustained 6 week patterns in a good while. I doubt that changes all of a sudden.
Remember when it looked like we were going to be cold through early January a couple of weeks ago and how quickly it changes? The “pattern” appears to be lasting in 2 week spurts and has been going back to September. Until that breaks, I’m expecting a change by the 15th. We will be in peak or just after climo as well. Besides we never have wall to wall warmth or cold in winter so you should expect spells or above and below average temps.
 
Honestly looking through the EPS members around day 11-12 doesn’t look that bad with lots of very nice looks at 500mb albeit probably progressive. Throw out the mean though as it’s useless in this time frame.
 
When I see a snow pattern, I’ll bite. I don’t see one through 384 on ensembles. so bring on warmth !!
I don’t think your opinion is weird at all. I’m in total agreement. We are going above freezing for the first time in 6 days at the house here and it mostly sucked…dry, cold, below zero, pipes freezing…and no snow. Yuck…give me snow above warmth but not just cold.
 
I don’t think your opinion is weird at all. I’m in total agreement. We are going above freezing for the first time in 6 days at the house here and it mostly sucked…dry, cold, below zero, pipes freezing…and no snow. Yuck…give me snow above warmth but not just cold.
Bingo. You and Fro are my climate heroes.
 
I don’t think your opinion is weird at all. I’m in total agreement. We are going above freezing for the first time in 6 days at the house here and it mostly sucked…dry, cold, below zero, pipes freezing…and no snow. Yuck…give me snow above warmth but not just cold.
Yep exactly, the reason why I was frothing over the last pattern was because, it had the ability to produce snow, but I didn’t. Some good patterns just don’t produce. the cold was absolutely miserable, it was cool for the 1st day but I got old quick. I mean who enjoys that sort of stuff ? The outdoors is essential to one’s health, vitamins and just mental health. and 60 degree weather is perfect outdoor weather. Next week and a half looks good for that. I’m happy. When I start seeing a look that supports snow on ensembles, I start to post the maps everyone loves again.
 
Back
Top