That’s I thought, but dang if some of the patterns we’ve seen in the late fall and now early winter don’t seem more of what you expect in a neutral ENSO.
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
Euro control has Charlotte missing a record high by four degrees on NYD.
Yeah pattern favors a period with strong southerly flow and even severe weather given the right set up.. but that will feel pretty damn nice after all this cold we have been through and will go through over the next week.
Torch 
GoDuke
Member
Thought this cold had staying power?
SnowNiner
Member
The models for January look pretty horrible, with an Alaskan low. So, have we concluded what went wrong yet? Our +EMT jet extension goodness looks to last about a week.
Overextended pacific jet.
No, it’s lasting way more than a week. We’re just going to overextend the pacific jet and go zonal and mild. I mentioned that as a fail possibility a couple times along with grit. It’s going to put pressure on the SPV though
SnowNiner
Member
I can't post it from my phone for some reason but the EPS didn't look too far east with the jet, but it seems to just be too much.
Hopefully January will continue the theme of blocking, over the top and a weak PV, and that Alaska low is temporary. Yuck. ?
GoDuke
Member
So this is breaking down the Greenland block?
NCSNOW
Member
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Yea , I think around 12/11-12/13, Ill have to go back and check. But that's when Gboro started hitting BN on the means. It will definitely stay BN through almost New years eve at least. So it will be close to a 2 week stretch of consecutive BN days. No frozen precip outside of Frost mind you. But the pattern will have delivered on the Cold when all is said and done, tallied up.
That’s a nice QLCS severe look and heavy rain look
Oh and #torch
Oh and #torch
LickWx
Member
That’s a CAD look. CAD source is roasting , CAD galore!
Prestige Worldwide
Member
I wouldn’t be so comfortable embracing a huge torch.
We will have a brief torch for sure. But I agree I’m not all in on long term “extreme warmth” really nice to see the retrograding nature of that trough but would like to see that continued to be modeled as we get closer or we will continue to kick the can. But I think the warm up will be nice after this cold attack we will be dealing with. We can worry about what comes next after.
MichaelJ
Member
Looking at the teleconnections and MJO, it is most definitely a mixed bag in the long term (of course it can and likely will change). Ensembles show us losing the -AO, -EPO, -NAO but getting a slightly positive PNA. The deterministic OP's show a big difference between the EURO and the GFS and it would behoove us to be pulling for the GFS in this fight because the EURO OP is pretty awful. MJO looks to sneak into Phase 7 but then likely enter the null phase and moving ever slightly towards 5 and 6
packfan98
Moderator
Do you have the temperature anomalies? I keep seeing a huge lack of cold air available on most of the long range modeling I’ve looked at.
Yeah, there's that positively tilted ATL trough and the negatively tilted PAC trough. Easy way to get big snowstorms along the East Coast. It's just the Euro Control, so this is cherry-picking.
