Good, I can give my heat pump a rest
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Damn looks like there going for a jet SnapBack
After this type of cold we’re going through I’m perfectly fine with a January thaw! Then we get back to a pattern that can make some snow happen mid January
Like the idea of retrogression/retraction and we get back on track eventually after pacific blaster 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Fwiw, this my general sentiment on January (as things currently stand)
-The first week or so is very likely going to be warm & fairly wet/stormy. Need to be on the lookout for severe weather across the lower MS Valley & Gulf coast especially.
Once we get to/past Jan 10th ish, we should see more of a canonical El Nino/+PNA pattern return. We'll probably progressively step down from this super mild pattern to a seasonable one, that eventually becomes rather cool again as we move into mid-late January.
Imho, after this potential chance ~Dec 26-27th or so, our next best window is probably somewhere in/around the 3rd week of January (~ Jan 14-25 ish). There may very well be a storm or two that shows up between now & then, but the air masses earlier on in January are more liable to be stale, more temperate continental polar ones, capable of delivering snow primarily to climo favored areas of the Appalachian mountains, etc.
I also tentatively suspect we may see the -EPO also make a return sometime late in January and eventually evolve into a more classic -EPO/-PNA/SE ridge La Nina pattern in February (typical evolution for a winter like this).
-The first week or so is very likely going to be warm & fairly wet/stormy. Need to be on the lookout for severe weather across the lower MS Valley & Gulf coast especially.
Once we get to/past Jan 10th ish, we should see more of a canonical El Nino/+PNA pattern return. We'll probably progressively step down from this super mild pattern to a seasonable one, that eventually becomes rather cool again as we move into mid-late January.
Imho, after this potential chance ~Dec 26-27th or so, our next best window is probably somewhere in/around the 3rd week of January (~ Jan 14-25 ish). There may very well be a storm or two that shows up between now & then, but the air masses earlier on in January are more liable to be stale, more temperate continental polar ones, capable of delivering snow primarily to climo favored areas of the Appalachian mountains, etc.
I also tentatively suspect we may see the -EPO also make a return sometime late in January and eventually evolve into a more classic -EPO/-PNA/SE ridge La Nina pattern in February (typical evolution for a winter like this).
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Next week's pattern is basically cut & paste December El Nino.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
smast16
Member
Good, because with the heat running this much, and how much it's about to run, my sinues need a break.
Yeah, this heat is already creating some booger makers.
NoSnowATL
Member
Updated
rburrel2
Member
Long range gfs looks decent for the first time in a week or so. Maybe we are finally seeing past the torch.
CFS has had some cold runs today
Jet retraction and hemispheric retrogression starting to show on the ensemble means too. Might be rushed a little but 15-20 days before we are back at it at worst hopefully
first 5 days of Jan from CPC looks warm 
NCSNOW
Member
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Ensembles are in lock step as we roll into 2023. NAO and AO headed toward posotive and pattern looks to lock in what we dont want to see. 180 degree turn from this weekend.
PNA forecast tracks into posotive teritory which is nice, but not by much. We gonna have to punt some days in January, question is how many. I despise bad patterns, espeacilly from Dec 20 to Jan 20. Hollidays then right into prime climo. Least we had good temps this December for a change.
PNA forecast tracks into posotive teritory which is nice, but not by much. We gonna have to punt some days in January, question is how many. I despise bad patterns, espeacilly from Dec 20 to Jan 20. Hollidays then right into prime climo. Least we had good temps this December for a change.
Actually the AO is only forecasted to reach neutral before going back slightly negative. Either way, there’s no signs of it getting strongly positive for more than a few days, which will keep the PV from getting wound up