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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Beginning of January looks to be a big bummer. Overactive jet is just a hose of warm pacific air to start prime climo. What do we need to look for to retract the jet and get ridging back over Alaska and the Arctic? I'm assuming if this comes to fruition it's going to be a while before we can get out of it.

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SnowNiner said:
Beginning of January looks to be a big bummer. Overactive jet is just a hose of warm pacific air to start prime climo. What do we need to look for to retract the jet and get ridging back over Alaska and the Arctic? I'm assuming if this comes to fruition it's going to be a while before we can get out of it.

eps_z500a_nhem_61.png

eps_uv250_nhem_61.png
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It wouldn't take too long once the jet retracts to get the wheels in motion and get the cooler air back. Mjo will move through the warmer phases and hopefully be in or approaching p8 by the new year.
 
SD said:
It wouldn't take too long once the jet retracts to get the wheels in motion and get the cooler air back. Mjo will move through the warmer phases and hopefully be in or approaching p8 by the new year.
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Yeah… that’s the good thing about the overall pattern we’ve been in since early October. We don’t seem to stay mild or cool periods more than about 2 weeks at a time. Another thing going for us is that the AO looks to remain negative, so we’re not going to see the PV get so wound up that it locks up all the cold air. As I said the other day, the overall patterns right now look more like a neutral ENSO than they do a LaNina.
 
After the warm spell in early Jan, implications point to an eastern trough, although the jet will not bring down Alaskan or Siberian air but from Canada. This could work for us considering most of our snow storms are in cold but not frigid air allowing for more cyclogenesis out of the gulf
 
SD said:
It wouldn't take too long once the jet retracts to get the wheels in motion and get the cooler air back. Mjo will move through the warmer phases and hopefully be in or approaching p8 by the new year.
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p8 in January, let's roll!
 
SnowNiner said:
Beginning of January looks to be a big bummer. Overactive jet is just a hose of warm pacific air to start prime climo. What do we need to look for to retract the jet and get ridging back over Alaska and the Arctic? I'm assuming if this comes to fruition it's going to be a while before we can get out of it.

eps_z500a_nhem_61.png

eps_uv250_nhem_61.png
Click to expand...

California will love this pattern, esp the northern part of the state. Looks pretty wet down here in New Mexico too
 
Odds of the GFS being right over 10 days out. Less than 50% on a good day. Especially if that was a cold look or frozen in the SE.

I see the CFS, not to shabby for Jan. No access to weeklies. Thanks Fro for sharing though. Hopefully we get some more good patterns Jan an Feb to pass through our neck of the woods
 
I should have rolled through the CFS before typing above. Its changed a lot just since yesterday, Im talking 2cnd and 3rd week Jan. No Pac help at all. Up near Alaska is a continous train wreck. Maybe winter will Remember December as JB you to say all the time and we salvage back half of winter, if this ends up being the theme the next 3-4 weeks.
 
Fwiw, this my general sentiment on January (as things currently stand)

-The first week or so is very likely going to be warm & fairly wet/stormy. Need to be on the lookout for severe weather across the lower MS Valley & Gulf coast especially.

Once we get to/past Jan 10th ish, we should see more of a canonical El Nino/+PNA pattern return. We'll probably progressively step down from this super mild pattern to a seasonable one, that eventually becomes rather cool again as we move into mid-late January.

Imho, after this potential chance ~Dec 26-27th or so, our next best window is probably somewhere in/around the 3rd week of January (~ Jan 14-25 ish). There may very well be a storm or two that shows up between now & then, but the air masses earlier on in January are more liable to be stale, more temperate continental polar ones, capable of delivering snow primarily to climo favored areas of the Appalachian mountains, etc.

I also tentatively suspect we may see the -EPO also make a return sometime late in January and eventually evolve into a more classic -EPO/-PNA/SE ridge La Nina pattern in February (typical evolution for a winter like this).


 
rburrel2 said:
Long range gfs looks decent for the first time in a week or so. Maybe we are finally seeing past the torch.
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Jet retraction and hemispheric retrogression starting to show on the ensemble means too. Might be rushed a little but 15-20 days before we are back at it at worst hopefully
 
Ensembles are in lock step as we roll into 2023. NAO and AO headed toward posotive and pattern looks to lock in what we dont want to see. 180 degree turn from this weekend.
PNA forecast tracks into posotive teritory which is nice, but not by much. We gonna have to punt some days in January, question is how many. I despise bad patterns, espeacilly from Dec 20 to Jan 20. Hollidays then right into prime climo. Least we had good temps this December for a change.
 
NCSNOW said:
Ensembles are in lock step as we roll into 2023. NAO and AO headed toward posotive and pattern looks to lock in what we dont want to see. 180 degree turn from this weekend.
PNA forecast tracks into posotive teritory which is nice, but not by much. We gonna have to punt some days in January, question is how many. I despise bad patterns, espeacilly from Dec 20 to Jan 20. Hollidays then right into prime climo. Least we had good temps this December for a change.
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Actually the AO is only forecasted to reach neutral before going back slightly negative. Either way, there’s no signs of it getting strongly positive for more than a few days, which will keep the PV from getting wound up
 
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