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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Beginning of January looks to be a big bummer. Overactive jet is just a hose of warm pacific air to start prime climo. What do we need to look for to retract the jet and get ridging back over Alaska and the Arctic? I'm assuming if this comes to fruition it's going to be a while before we can get out of it.

eps_z500a_nhem_61.png

eps_uv250_nhem_61.png
 
SnowNiner said:
Beginning of January looks to be a big bummer. Overactive jet is just a hose of warm pacific air to start prime climo. What do we need to look for to retract the jet and get ridging back over Alaska and the Arctic? I'm assuming if this comes to fruition it's going to be a while before we can get out of it.

eps_z500a_nhem_61.png

eps_uv250_nhem_61.png
Click to expand...
It wouldn't take too long once the jet retracts to get the wheels in motion and get the cooler air back. Mjo will move through the warmer phases and hopefully be in or approaching p8 by the new year.
 
SD said:
It wouldn't take too long once the jet retracts to get the wheels in motion and get the cooler air back. Mjo will move through the warmer phases and hopefully be in or approaching p8 by the new year.
Click to expand...
Yeah… that’s the good thing about the overall pattern we’ve been in since early October. We don’t seem to stay mild or cool periods more than about 2 weeks at a time. Another thing going for us is that the AO looks to remain negative, so we’re not going to see the PV get so wound up that it locks up all the cold air. As I said the other day, the overall patterns right now look more like a neutral ENSO than they do a LaNina.
 
After the warm spell in early Jan, implications point to an eastern trough, although the jet will not bring down Alaskan or Siberian air but from Canada. This could work for us considering most of our snow storms are in cold but not frigid air allowing for more cyclogenesis out of the gulf
 
SD said:
It wouldn't take too long once the jet retracts to get the wheels in motion and get the cooler air back. Mjo will move through the warmer phases and hopefully be in or approaching p8 by the new year.
Click to expand...
p8 in January, let's roll!
 
SnowNiner said:
Beginning of January looks to be a big bummer. Overactive jet is just a hose of warm pacific air to start prime climo. What do we need to look for to retract the jet and get ridging back over Alaska and the Arctic? I'm assuming if this comes to fruition it's going to be a while before we can get out of it.

eps_z500a_nhem_61.png

eps_uv250_nhem_61.png
Click to expand...

California will love this pattern, esp the northern part of the state. Looks pretty wet down here in New Mexico too
 
Odds of the GFS being right over 10 days out. Less than 50% on a good day. Especially if that was a cold look or frozen in the SE.

I see the CFS, not to shabby for Jan. No access to weeklies. Thanks Fro for sharing though. Hopefully we get some more good patterns Jan an Feb to pass through our neck of the woods
 
I should have rolled through the CFS before typing above. Its changed a lot just since yesterday, Im talking 2cnd and 3rd week Jan. No Pac help at all. Up near Alaska is a continous train wreck. Maybe winter will Remember December as JB you to say all the time and we salvage back half of winter, if this ends up being the theme the next 3-4 weeks.
 
Can see the strat PV taking a big hit on the end of the GEFS/GFS thanks to the AK trough
 
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