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Pattern Jammin January 2023

SD said:
The most interesting thing to me about the first week of Jan on the eps is how nothing is extremely warm.
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You must not have heard, Danny Dewpoint ordered xtra hot salsa


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NickyBGuarantee said:
COD is good. Patience is key and trends are good. Thaw early January .. mid to late January we could be back in business
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I have always understood the COD to mean that when the MJO registers that value, its impacts are negligible. I've always preferred it entering the COD after being in one of the better phases. In any case, someone said it before (I think it might have been you), and I agree, that the pattern has been variable. I'm not worried about a sustained torch pattern.

Plus, the CFS still looks good for mid-Jan.

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It’s all about backing the pacific jet enough. When that happens we probably initially have slowed flow over the US, could maybe score in that, then western ridge and EC trough (could score in that) then enough retraction and -PNA/North Pacific ridge
 
iGRXY said:
Looks like that 2 week pattern change is holding true. I expect by the 10th we will be heading back to below normal. We will still be in peak climo for about another 10 days so still opportunities out there.
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I agree we're looking at around the 10th before we see a shot another good pattern showing up. Then give it a week more for "delayed not denied" garb. Man thats pushing into the 3rd week of january. That's a little depressing
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s all about backing the pacific jet enough. When that happens we probably initially have slowed flow over the US, could maybe score in that, then western ridge and EC trough (could score in that) then enough retraction and -PNA/North Pacific ridge
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It looks more like we’re shifting from a solid jet extension to an extension/poleward regime. Poleward regimes have the tendency to be very warm and flood the mid latitudes, hence the warmup. I don’t think we’ll see a retraction anytime soon to the point that we get a traditional La Niña Aleutian Ridge.

Our favorability will come when the jet shifts back to where it is now. The GEFS looks warm at the moment, but you can see heights building over the Pacific Northwest to indicate where things are going around the 10th as the jet shifts more equatorial.

I’m currently working on some composites for the North Pacific Jet phases. I will post them when I’m done.
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Ollie Williams said:
It looks more like we’re shifting from a solid jet extension to an extension/poleward regime. Poleward regimes have the tendency to be very warm and flood the mid latitudes, hence the warmup. I don’t think we’ll see a retraction anytime soon to the point that we get a traditional La Niña Aleutian Ridge.

Our favorability will come when the jet shifts back to where it is now. The GEFS looks warm at the moment, but you can see heights building over the Pacific Northwest to indicate where things are going around the 10th as the jet shifts more equatorial.

I’m currently working on some composites for the North Pacific Jet phases. I will post them when I’m done.
View attachment 128404
View attachment 128405
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That’s kinda what I was saying and been saying for a while when I say that… i know we’re overextending the next week. I was saying we need to back up the jet eventually, like what the gefs shows, in order to improve the pattern.
Interesting in those NPAC jet phase composites.
At the end of the day we still have a La Niña background, we’re eventually gonna retract, likely in late jan/early Feb, it’s just bound to happen, maritime forcing is heavily favored in Nina’s mid-later on in winter. Reason for the overextension is to much deposition of +AAM into the pacific jet, +AAM finally resulting in consistent and heavy positive east Asia mountain torque 8731B0A1-3DEA-4F0F-AF7C-690425FD8C9D.jpeg5300E0F4-9AC7-4327-A342-8DD0FFF36B3C.jpeg
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
That’s kinda what I was saying and been saying for a while when I say that… i know we’re overextending the next week. I was saying we need to back up the jet eventually, like what the gefs shows, in order to improve the pattern.
Interesting in those NPAC jet phase composites.
At the end of the day we still have a La Niña background, we’re eventually gonna retract, likely in late jan/early Feb, it’s just bound to happen, maritime forcing is heavily favored in Nina’s mid-later on in winter. Reason for the overextension is to much deposition of +AAM into the pacific jet, +AAM finally resulting in consistent and heavy positive east Asia mountain torque View attachment 128408View attachment 128409
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For ex, you can see on the gefs the pacific jet letting off the pressure hose, and backing off, which starts to turn the pattern around. It would help we moved a mjo wave into the west pacific
Day 7 5118966A-F23F-49A2-A7B2-BF1126D92639.png
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Nice +NAM showing up in the lower stratosphere early January.. looks like we’re not done wrt -AO in the longer range esp if any coupling occurs View attachment 128414
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Let’s get this arctic blast again in late January.. maybe it’ll be colder so everyone in SC can enjoy it too!
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Nice +NAM showing up in the lower stratosphere early January.. looks like we’re not done wrt -AO in the longer range esp if any coupling occurs View attachment 128414
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I always like to think that December can set the stage for the general pattern of the winter. I'm hopeful that the general blockiness that we've had stays. I bet that it will, but the pacific is always a heavy hitter that can make or break a winter. Just a huge wildcard imo.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Nice +NAM showing up in the lower stratosphere early January.. looks like we’re not done wrt -AO in the longer range esp if any coupling occurs View attachment 128414
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We got a bad break with the position of the pna with this past -nao. Any shift west would have been golden for us especially teamed up with a pronounced -ao. Hopefully we can get a better setup for cold and snow sometime in January
 
Im thinking maybe we wash, rinse ,repeat the December pattern for January. First 12 days of Dec where normal with a few spiked days AN mixed in here. Of course Gboro had some wedging to offset a couple of days and keep the daily highs in check. Then Dec 12-13 we technically flipped to BN.
 
rburrel2 said:
What pisses me off is the last time we had an arctic outbreak this strong it never made it to the southeast, but Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana got wave after wave of overrunning precip. We finally get an equally strong arctic plunge and there isn’t crap for anything coming through on the southern edge.
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That's how we roll in the Carolina's and Gerogia.
 
Second week of January is the time:
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What we want to see continuously show up going forward is something like what the GFS just ran at the end. Solid western ridge with cold air building in brought. Might not have a -NAO but there's cold air being brought in which will set us up hopefully for another shot. At least there's not just an endless road of warm runs through mid-January so this early Jan warmup won't really be much.
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep, EPS drops another bout of high pressure into east Asia by day 10-11 (+EAMT) which extends the pac jet even more and pushes lower heights into the Bering sea-Alaska. This draws a Bering Sea/Alaskan vortex, which ultimately attacks the stratospheric polar vortex. EPS hinting at return of urals high end of the run. There’s a reason why 2021 had the SSWE, because this exact setup (Bering sea vortex) put constant strain on it weeks prior. Not really any signs of jet retraction in the future either as the weakening MJO wave traverses east and we continue to speed up the pac jet. Basically we’re gonna go for a strat attack the next couple of weeks ?View attachment 126743View attachment 126744
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And just like that, the GEFS/EPS are showing the strat PV take a beating in early January thanks the the persistent NPAC low resulting from persistent +EAMT. I wouldn’t go as far as saying a SSWE, but the strat PV is getting stretched and taking one-twos here 9ABB4256-AD0A-4C5C-A449-DE7B205EE576.pngCC995125-6452-4544-8B1E-607DC7D9DF59.png69843F64-3012-4014-986E-00FED4DE2F65.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
And just like that, the GEFS/EPS are showing the strat PV take a beating in early January thanks the the persistent NPAC low resulting from persistent +EAMT. I wouldn’t go as far as saying a SSWE, but the strat PV is getting stretched and taking one-twos here View attachment 128439View attachment 128440View attachment 128441
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Yep I’m certainly not worried about not having at least one more period of good winter weather chances with what we’re seeing on the models. With it coming at our peak climo .. you can’t ask for much better than this.
 
Some good thoughts / ideas in here on the pattern going forward

My forecast call quoted below from Dec 10 is going to turn out pretty well for roughly Dec 23-29, but terrible for the first week in Jan. Was banking on the Pac Jet Extension, but it’s going to end up being too strong / too far extended east

Looking ahead:
Early Jan: +EPO dominant, mild / warm anomalies across much of US and Canada. Some cool anomalies west of the Rocky divide at times when storminess moves thru

Mid Jan: The MJO / Tropical forcing has been slower to move east out into the Pacific than I expected. At any rate, my concern with this period is that the MJO movement into typically cold eastern US phases (7-8-1, ie Pacific to Africa convective signal) may combine with what looks like another significant +EAsiaMtnTorq event showing up on the models in early Jan to keep the Pac Jet overextended, keeping us in a threat for more +EPO mildness (with W US troughing at times). Next most likely would be that the Pac Jet remains extended, but not overly so, and we see a nice -EPO/+PNA type pattern beginning to develop. Least likely to me is a big Pac Jet retraction into a -PNA dominant pattern of Aleutian Ridge / W US trough

This post week 2 type forecasting is super hard to get the specifics correct, but clearly, some of us like to dabble in it lol

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griteater said:
Starting to get more bullish on a solid cold period east of the Rockies to the Deep South from just before Christmas into the 1st week of January. I think we'll see modeling improve with that as we go thru next week. Excellent sequence shown on the EPS for +EAsiaMtnTorq with strong high moving into SE Asia (1st loop). This should combine with the tropical convective signal emerging into the WPac next week (2nd loop) to move us into a --EPO / +PNA look. In addition, this sequence during La Nina favors a continuation of the current generally negative AO / NAO regime (3rd image).
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