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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
Nice to see jet retraction showing up on smoothed ensemble means/OPs
These look nice .. January thaw and then phase 8-1-2 MJO? Let’s ride 
Euro goes into the COD before it gets there. GFS takes a month to finally get back into P7.
COD is good. Patience is key and trends are good. Thaw early January .. mid to late January we could be back in business
I have always understood the COD to mean that when the MJO registers that value, its impacts are negligible. I've always preferred it entering the COD after being in one of the better phases. In any case, someone said it before (I think it might have been you), and I agree, that the pattern has been variable. I'm not worried about a sustained torch pattern.
Plus, the CFS still looks good for mid-Jan.
It’s all about backing the pacific jet enough. When that happens we probably initially have slowed flow over the US, could maybe score in that, then western ridge and EC trough (could score in that) then enough retraction and -PNA/North Pacific ridge
That’s a chunky southeast ridge 
iGRXY
Member
Looks like that 2 week pattern change is holding true. I expect by the 10th we will be heading back to below normal. We will still be in peak climo for about another 10 days so still opportunities out there.
Oconeexman
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I agree we're looking at around the 10th before we see a shot another good pattern showing up. Then give it a week more for "delayed not denied" garb. Man thats pushing into the 3rd week of january. That's a little depressing
That gefs evolution at H5 and 10mb is ?
Kidney beans are on the menu ? ? 
Western ridge was going up at the end of the GEFS if it’s any consolation
A reflection of the retraction/backing up of the pacific jet that’ll eventually happen ?
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NoSnowATL
Member
Yep, should have a cold April.
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Back to 384. But at least we can only go to a good pacific from to much extension with some regression before we go back to a bad one with to much regression 
It looks more like we’re shifting from a solid jet extension to an extension/poleward regime. Poleward regimes have the tendency to be very warm and flood the mid latitudes, hence the warmup. I don’t think we’ll see a retraction anytime soon to the point that we get a traditional La Niña Aleutian Ridge.
Our favorability will come when the jet shifts back to where it is now. The GEFS looks warm at the moment, but you can see heights building over the Pacific Northwest to indicate where things are going around the 10th as the jet shifts more equatorial.
I’m currently working on some composites for the North Pacific Jet phases. I will post them when I’m done.
That’s kinda what I was saying and been saying for a while when I say that… i know we’re overextending the next week. I was saying we need to back up the jet eventually, like what the gefs shows, in order to improve the pattern.
Interesting in those NPAC jet phase composites.
At the end of the day we still have a La Niña background, we’re eventually gonna retract, likely in late jan/early Feb, it’s just bound to happen, maritime forcing is heavily favored in Nina’s mid-later on in winter. Reason for the overextension is to much deposition of +AAM into the pacific jet, +AAM finally resulting in consistent and heavy positive east Asia mountain torque
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For ex, you can see on the gefs the pacific jet letting off the pressure hose, and backing off, which starts to turn the pattern around. It would help we moved a mjo wave into the west pacific
Day 7
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Nice +NAM showing up in the lower stratosphere early January.. looks like we’re not done wrt -AO in the longer range esp if any coupling occurs 
Let’s get this arctic blast again in late January.. maybe it’ll be colder so everyone in SC can enjoy it too!
SnowNiner
Member
I always like to think that December can set the stage for the general pattern of the winter. I'm hopeful that the general blockiness that we've had stays. I bet that it will, but the pacific is always a heavy hitter that can make or break a winter. Just a huge wildcard imo.
Shut your mouth! ?
Itryatgolf
Member
We got a bad break with the position of the pna with this past -nao. Any shift west would have been golden for us especially teamed up with a pronounced -ao. Hopefully we can get a better setup for cold and snow sometime in January
NCSNOW
Member
Im thinking maybe we wash, rinse ,repeat the December pattern for January. First 12 days of Dec where normal with a few spiked days AN mixed in here. Of course Gboro had some wedging to offset a couple of days and keep the daily highs in check. Then Dec 12-13 we technically flipped to BN.
rburrel2
Member
What pisses me off is the last time we had an arctic outbreak this strong it never made it to the southeast, but Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana got wave after wave of overrunning precip. We finally get an equally strong arctic plunge and there isn’t crap for anything coming through on the southern edge.
That's how we roll in the Carolina's and Gerogia.
Stormlover
Member
Second week of January is the time:
ForsythSnow
Moderator
What we want to see continuously show up going forward is something like what the GFS just ran at the end. Solid western ridge with cold air building in brought. Might not have a -NAO but there's cold air being brought in which will set us up hopefully for another shot. At least there's not just an endless road of warm runs through mid-January so this early Jan warmup won't really be much.
And just like that, the GEFS/EPS are showing the strat PV take a beating in early January thanks the the persistent NPAC low resulting from persistent +EAMT. I wouldn’t go as far as saying a SSWE, but the strat PV is getting stretched and taking one-twos here
Yep I’m certainly not worried about not having at least one more period of good winter weather chances with what we’re seeing on the models. With it coming at our peak climo .. you can’t ask for much better than this.
This is just about all we need. SSWs are great but annoying the pv and keeping the atmosphere from syncing up is good enough
Some good thoughts / ideas in here on the pattern going forward
My forecast call quoted below from Dec 10 is going to turn out pretty well for roughly Dec 23-29, but terrible for the first week in Jan. Was banking on the Pac Jet Extension, but it’s going to end up being too strong / too far extended east
Looking ahead:
Early Jan: +EPO dominant, mild / warm anomalies across much of US and Canada. Some cool anomalies west of the Rocky divide at times when storminess moves thru
Mid Jan: The MJO / Tropical forcing has been slower to move east out into the Pacific than I expected. At any rate, my concern with this period is that the MJO movement into typically cold eastern US phases (7-8-1, ie Pacific to Africa convective signal) may combine with what looks like another significant +EAsiaMtnTorq event showing up on the models in early Jan to keep the Pac Jet overextended, keeping us in a threat for more +EPO mildness (with W US troughing at times). Next most likely would be that the Pac Jet remains extended, but not overly so, and we see a nice -EPO/+PNA type pattern beginning to develop. Least likely to me is a big Pac Jet retraction into a -PNA dominant pattern of Aleutian Ridge / W US trough
This post week 2 type forecasting is super hard to get the specifics correct, but clearly, some of us like to dabble in it lol
My forecast call quoted below from Dec 10 is going to turn out pretty well for roughly Dec 23-29, but terrible for the first week in Jan. Was banking on the Pac Jet Extension, but it’s going to end up being too strong / too far extended east
Looking ahead:
Early Jan: +EPO dominant, mild / warm anomalies across much of US and Canada. Some cool anomalies west of the Rocky divide at times when storminess moves thru
Mid Jan: The MJO / Tropical forcing has been slower to move east out into the Pacific than I expected. At any rate, my concern with this period is that the MJO movement into typically cold eastern US phases (7-8-1, ie Pacific to Africa convective signal) may combine with what looks like another significant +EAsiaMtnTorq event showing up on the models in early Jan to keep the Pac Jet overextended, keeping us in a threat for more +EPO mildness (with W US troughing at times). Next most likely would be that the Pac Jet remains extended, but not overly so, and we see a nice -EPO/+PNA type pattern beginning to develop. Least likely to me is a big Pac Jet retraction into a -PNA dominant pattern of Aleutian Ridge / W US trough
This post week 2 type forecasting is super hard to get the specifics correct, but clearly, some of us like to dabble in it lol
Weenie thunderstorm pattern 
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
Need to watch out for a potential severe threat next we
Yeah this period needs to be watched closely for a severe threat.