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Pattern Jammin January 2023

SD said:
Good to see consistency from the eps getting the building blocks in place. We'd still need time after this image to get the ridge poleward and tap some real cold but I'm not discouraged
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Here are days 9 to 15 on the Euro Control Run

Rf5KhdS.gif
 
Finally got around to analyzing this past Christmas's cold wave in NC. Hopefully, I find enough time to analyze the low temperatures in SC & on the brief period of sleet/graupel/snow that occurred ahead of the arctic front on December 23rd.

Here's my map for NC. Mt Mitchell got down to -21°F ?

December 24-25 2022 NC Minimum Temperature Map.jpg
 
SD said:
We couldn't ask for more than that. A good 5-7 day window to end the month. Might be seeing the end of the pattern across Asia by the end but the table would already be set
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A few thoughts on this...

MJO should work its way thru Phases 1-2-3 during the Jan 15-31 period. Typical response to this is Pac Jet retraction (seen in purple here)...

BBWIgPk.gif



But the effects of forecasted +EAMT surface high pressure cold surges into E Asia during this same timeframe may act as counterbalance to prevent a big jet retraction and Aleutian High / -PNA pattern as we go into the late Jan / early Feb timeframe.

We can see here the EPS and EPS Control holding surging E Asia high pressure thru to the end of the run out to Jan 22, with an Aleutian Low developing, and High Pressure on the west coast...

0Tns0ud.gif


tbZLj2e.gif



Comment here from Jim Yang on the predicted flip from warm to cold in China with the surging high pressure

g67BZim.png
 
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griteater said:
A few thoughts on this...

MJO should work its way thru Phases 1-2-3 during the Jan 15-31 period. Typical response to this is Pac Jet retraction (seen in purple here)...

BBWIgPk.gif



But the effects of forecasted +EAMT surface high pressure cold surges into E Asia during this same timeframe may act as counterbalance to prevent a big jet retraction and Aleutian High / -PNA pattern as we go into the late Jan / early Feb timeframe.

We can see here the EPS and EPS Control holding surging E Asia high pressure thru to the end of the run out to Jan 22, with an Aleutian Low developing, and High Pressure on the west coast...

0Tns0ud.gif


tbZLj2e.gif



Comment here from Jim Yang on the predicted flip from warm to cold in China with the surging high pressure

g67BZim.png
Click to expand...

We’ll see. You’re gonna be fighting not just the MJO, but ENSO also trying to pull the jet back as well as typical planetary wave variability (large scale high amplitude planetary waves like this tend to retrograde over time, more so with blocking highs because the westerly jet underneath them is weaker). It’s a very delicate balance here indeed between going from a warm continental-wide super Nino look to -PNA/-EPO/SE ridge because we’re not in a favorable seasonal state for +PNA. I hope you get at least one more chance here in late January.

This is actually a really big negative EAMT next week until about day 10, because high MSLPa is west of the Tibetan Plateau (and lower MSLPa is to the east) & I suspect whatever +EAMT comes after this will be a net wash overall on how it impacts the Pacific jet, at least until about day 16-18

3307E0A7-78D7-413F-954F-ABDFCD9F865D.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
We’ll see. You’re gonna be fighting not just the MJO, but ENSO also trying to pull the jet back as well as typical planetary wave variability (large scale high amplitude planetary waves like this tend to retrograde over time, more so with blocking highs because the westerly jet underneath them is weaker). It’s a very delicate balance here indeed between going from a warm continental-wide super Nino look to -PNA/-EPO/SE ridge because we’re not in a favorable seasonal state for +PNA. I hope you get at least one more chance here in late January.

This is actually a really big negative EAMT next week until about day 10, because high MSLPa is west of the Tibetan Plateau (and lower MSLPa is to the east) & I suspect whatever +EAMT comes after this will be a net wash overall on how it impacts the Pacific jet, at least until about day 16-18

View attachment 129697
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Truth Eric, yeah agree on the current and upcoming -EAMT period. My focus was out past that (post Jan 15) where we have to live out at range far too often unfortunately. But tough call going forward as usual
 
griteater said:
Truth Eric, yeah agree on the current and upcoming -EAMT period. My focus was out past that (post Jan 15) where we have to live out at range far too often unfortunately. But tough call going forward as usual
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As much as these can go either way.. this always raises my eyebrows when we get an actual SSWE going .. could certainly help in some mischief in February even when we’re battling background Niña stuff B167EBCD-1C7B-4C8C-B93A-22E9BB084873.png
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Is this sudden enough to be classified as a SSWE yet? Things seem to be slowly but surly healing for something more favorable. View attachment 129708View attachment 129712View attachment 129713View attachment 129714View attachment 129715
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No. SSWEs are defined by zonal wind anomalies being < 0 (or reversed) near the polar cap region, or more specifically at 60N around 10mb.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/31/6/jcli-d-17-0648.1.xml

We are still nowhere close to that

14517D0A-024F-4E09-860B-3DAFA6D5F72E.png
 
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