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Pattern Jammin January 2023

NickyBGuarantee said:
That first and second storm shouldn’t be what we look for when we want a storm in the SE. those could be theoretically our table setters as after that second storm we get a good injection of cold air then. Then we look for energy that rounds the base of the trough or maybe some upper level energy to give us a chance at some snow or winter precip/ overrunning potential
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We've already got so many dishes on the table I'm not sure there's room for dinner at this point.
 
iGRXY said:
1674777600-SUHqOLfMFto.png

1674777600-xU6Ku2WkSOc.png

Okay this is extremely interesting looking. This is about as perfect of a western ridge as you're going to get.
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Pretty flat but the cold is a ✅
 
tennessee storm said:
Get true artic air. She will go dry as a bone. That’s way it works
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Really all we need is a good 35° Sfc temp and cold air aloft. Here in my neck of woods in upstate. Our biggest snows have never had the coldest of Air. I've seen very heavy snow here at 35-36°

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If the Canadian Ensemble is to be believed + overall trends we’re seeing on NWP lately, next week’s -NAO stands a good chance to couple with the stratosphere and persist for a rather long time, possibly thru early to even mid March (?).

Even if we don’t snow, that kind of circulation change would have a realistic chance to put a damper on us torching in Feb (like we normally do in La Ninas) or at least make that period of time much shorter overall.

I really hope my call for a warm first half-2/3rds of February this year busts, that would be awesome ?
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Main takeaway right now is that we will have about a 4-7 day window from 1/27- 2/2 with the players on the field. After that the SE ridge probably wins out
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Im looking at the GFS and it ends very warm with rain well into Canada. If this is just another 3 day cold then righr back to 10-20 above normal then the pattern still hasnt changed.
 
lexxnchloe said:
I agree. Hopefully the people saying the pattern is actually going to change will be right. I just dont see it on the GFS.
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Thats the problem. Your looking at GFS. When you get the EPs and GEPS singing same tune, Its no aurgument who's right and whos wrong. Now the GEFS, would warrant caution. New Op GFS is garbage LR, beneath the old DGEX
 
Webberweather53 said:
If the Canadian Ensemble is to be believed + overall trends we’re seeing on NWP lately, next week’s -NAO stands a good chance to couple with the stratosphere and persist for a rather long time, possibly thru early to even mid March (?).

Even if we don’t snow, that kind of circulation change would have a realistic chance to put a damper on us torching in Feb (like we normally do in La Ninas) or at least make that period of time much shorter overall.

I really hope my call for a warm first half-2/3rds of February this year busts, that would be awesome ?
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So, the GEPS has essentially the entire CONUS much below normal pretty much from day 5 to infinity. Do ensemble suites factor in 10Mb forecast conditions and the forecast effect of an SSWE in time?

gem-ens_T2ma_namer_65.png
 
Hmmm, overall we have definitely become colder on the modeling post Jan 25, but I wish another model was in agreement with the CMC Ens. The GEFS and EPS show more of a cold shot then a fairly quick move to -PNA / SE Ridge. Hopefully, we can continue to trend better going forward and sneak something in the colder window here

Here are comparison loops of GEFS / EPS / CMCE, first on Jan 29, then on Feb 2

5OqoB5Q.gif


Weq7L9w.gif
 
griteater said:
Hmmm, overall we have definitely become colder on the modeling post Jan 25, but I wish another model was in agreement with the CMC Ens. The GEFS and EPS show more of a cold shot then a fairly quick move to -PNA / SE Ridge. Hopefully, we can continue to trend better going forward and sneak something in the colder window here

Here are comparison loops of GEFS / EPS / CMCE, first on Jan 29, then on Feb 2

5OqoB5Q.gif


Weq7L9w.gif
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Has there ever been a time when the CMC ensembles have led the way on a pattern change? Honestly, because I tend to ignore them.

Is there any forcing or background reasons to believe the strong Atlantic troughing on the CMC?
 
I’d personally give the GEPS -NAO scenario about a 25% chance or so of verifying.

Still seems somewhat unlikely to me, but there are a few things in its corner right now.

-The overall trend on NWP lately (remember we didn’t have much of an -NAO in the forecast a couple days ago & the GEPS was one of the first to jump on it for next week, while the GEFS has seemed late to the party.)

-The AAMa dip we saw this past week makes it easier for the ridge to retrograde over the top from the Urals, because planetary vorticity advection is more able to overcome background westerly advection by the jet stream itself.

-Being in a La Niña helps us in a big way to maintain this -NAO here, because through wave interference and more disjointed Pacific + Atlantic jet streams, La Niña actually mutes the canonical Indian Ocean >> +NAO teleconnection that models like the GEFS are showing (perhaps erroneously at that in this particular case)

See: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GL084683


In fact, I think each model’s depiction of the MJO and how they believe it teleconnects downstream have a lot to do with their disagreement with the -NAO in the extended. The GEFS suite may just have a harder time than other models handling the fact that this teleconnection is actually muted in La Ninas (?). It’s the kind of question I wish I had the computational resources for to investigate using the S2S reforecast database (linked below).

https://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.ECMWF/.S2S/index.html?Set-Language=en

Notice in these MJO forecasts how much stronger the GEFS’s is. Although the EPS and CMET (GEPS) are similar, suggesting that this model teleconnection bias isn’t everything, it might be something

Will be closely watching how this all unfolds the next several days, because imho confidence has overall decreased somewhat for a warm early-mid Feb in the eastern US (although it remains probable-likely still).

BCB3BDD7-FF1B-408C-9034-60E1DBA27536.png

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SnowNiner said:
Has there ever been a time when the CMC ensembles have led the way on a pattern change? Honestly, because I tend to ignore them.

Is there any forcing or background reasons to believe the strong Atlantic troughing on the CMC?
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Well, the CPC most certainly incorporates it into their extended forecast. They throw the GFS into the mix out of patriotic pity at 25% of the blend.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 25% of Today's 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 35% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 and 8-14 Day Prognostic Discussions

The CPC issues the official U.S. 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks. These outlooks illustrate the probabilities of having above, normal, and below normal temperature and precipitation for the 6 to 10 day period, respectively. The outlooks also include forecast 500 millibar heights for the 6 to...
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
 
SnowNiner said:
Has there ever been a time when the CMC ensembles have led the way on a pattern change? Honestly, because I tend to ignore them.

Is there any forcing or background reasons to believe the strong Atlantic troughing on the CMC?
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I would say it lead the way with the overall December pattern… at the very least it was in step with EPS
 
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GFS represents what we're looking for really, with the wider, more bowl shaped trough, then look for the long-fetch of SW flow aloft into the 'cold' dome. A little less amplitude and a little less phasing of the trailing wave would get more folks involved, with a more west to east sliding system. Anyway, the bowl shaped trough look is a good starting point.
 
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