NoSnowATL
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
SASQUATCH
Mobile, AL: Snow Capital of the South
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Cough, cough...you rang?
12z GFS for midafternoon next Monday. It'll be interesting to see how much the cold holds on through the Triangle.
iGRXY
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CNCsnwfan1210
Member
GFS bring some decent cold air with the TPV around day 9-10.
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Energy flying around with a push of cold air moving in. These storms that miss us to the North can only help, especially if they are near misses.
NCSNOW
Member
12z Canadian has ice on escarpment Mon, then again Wed, ends with deep Cold and was about to give deep south Frozen at day 10
iGRXY
Member
Deep Deep cold with a ton of energy running around.
Looks good. Then immediately following, the pac jet from around the world comes back. I thought it was supposed to retract?
Deep Deep cold with a ton of energy running around.
We'd have 2 chances here
iGRXY
Member
Had a decent shot there on the GFS but of course it drops the energy into the SW. I think we have an active southern jet with energy dropping out of Canada so multiple chances with a very deep love of cold air. Who knows though
Way past the model's useful range. We toss.
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Cold is the first and most important ingredient and it looks like it'll be there.
Yesterday's 12z op Euro hinted at atleaat a temporary extending of the jet and moving the ridge axis east. At minimum we get an assist in cold delivery
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Personally I'd like to keep them separate with the 4 corners vorticity less sheared and take my chances at overrunning the cold sfc dome. I'd worry an early phase would hook into an ugly miller b but for you guys deep in the cad regions that might not be as big of a concern
iGRXY
Member
Few ways to score here, as of right now a deep shot of extended cold air looks to have legs right now. That is always first and foremost the most important thing in the south before even looking at potential winter storms. Now we either need some energy off of the southern jet to eject and push east (always the best candidate), or we need it to dive south out of Canada to either phase or dig correctly and also not get dumped further into the southwest. That has a lot more ways of screwing up. You're on a carefully tilted scale between sheared out nothing, energy that dumps out west that doesn't get kicked out until too late after the deep cold air is gone, and a winter storm.
iGRXY
Member
This is honestly the biggest winning hand, this is how we can at least get some snow even if it eventually switches over to ice from WAA. Miller B's are great in my neck of the woods, but then it becomes a fight to get perfectly tracked LP that doesn't come too far inland and transitions to the coast in a good spot to keep the sleet and ZR further south. Then you also have to start fighting 850 meso lows, etc that can get the smallest of warm noses in the area here. But more likely than not, that would be the end result here.
rburrel2
Member
Coldest run yet on the GEFS. Looks like we're definitely going to hit on the arctic air... just need to find some moisture now.
I mean you can't say we are going the wrong direction...
tennessee storm
Member
Get true artic air. She will go dry as a bone. That’s way it works
A 1988 Charlie Said it would 2 1/2 weeks ahead of time special !!! ??
tonysc
Member
Yeah that was a great one. I mean upper teens across the Upstate with heavy snow at mid-afternoon. You don't see that much in the South.
olhausen
Member
Huh? Most of middle and west Tennessee got 2-3 inches of snow just 3 weeks ago with some of the coldest temps in years.
iGRXY
Member
CAD and overrunning look here
Where's a 1040 high over Pennsylvania when you need it?
iGRXY
Member
JLL1973
Member
yes
iGRXY
Member
Need it to remain positively tilted to keep it from cutting. Otherwise that is a big western hit for Arkansas and West Tennessee
JLL1973
Member
western portions pf the midsouth do good this run
iGRXY
Member
Now immediately after that storm is where we could have something to look at
Honestly, would be a great setup with the first laying down snow pack over Missouri and Kentucky.
Now immediately after that storm is where we could have something to look at
That first and second storm shouldn’t be what we look for when we want a storm in the SE. those could be theoretically our table setters as after that second storm we get a good injection of cold air then. Then we look for energy that rounds the base of the trough or maybe some upper level energy to give us a chance at some snow or winter precip/ overrunning potential
I'd move the western ridge east a bit and the north Atlantic ridge west toward Greenland. Then we'd be rolling.
Now immediately after that storm is where we could have something to look at
iGRXY
Member
Okay this is extremely interesting looking. This is about as perfect of a western ridge as you're going to get.