griteater
Member
My own 'theory' here is that the MJO moving out of the Maritime Continent into the W Pacific combined with elevated EAsia Mtn Torq (+EAMT) in the mid-late Dec period to over-extend the Pac Jet, leading to this Super Nino-like period we are experiencing now which reminds me of the Super Nino winter of 1998 where there were numerous east coast storms, but no cold air.
Over the next couple weeks, we are going to see the opposite occur.....the MJO influence on the extended jet should relax some as the MJO moves off to the east. Also, we now have an ongoing -EAMT period here for the first half of Jan. So, the Pac Jet is going to weaken
But then we get to the part where we may have some promise for a colder pattern. The next big Siberian High forms and drops into EAsia (renewed +EAMT), extending the Pac Jet back out to the money spot for western ridging near Hawaii. So, hopefully this time, the +EAMT runs the show for the most part without heavy MJO influence, preventing the Pac Jet from over-extending and giving us a colder profile in the last 1/3 of Jan.
1st Loop: Siberia High
2nd Loop: Pac Jet over-extended flipped to Hawaii Day 1 to Day 15
3rd Loop: Gulf of Alaska Low flipped to Aleutian Low Day 1 to Day 15
Anyway, those are some thoughts on a cloudy Saturday morning. It feels a bit slimy to be hanging out in long range land with the way things have gone, but what the heck
