We’re trending into an amazing pattern 
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
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Deleted member 609
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Wow 6z Gfs
PATTERN CHANGE really starting to show up on models even still with a touch of the SER. Interesting times ahead ?
PATTERN CHANGE really starting to show up on models even still with a touch of the SER. Interesting times ahead ?
NCSNOW
Member
Record Digital snowfall run for packfan98 from 2 separate storms totaling 33 inches in the ole back yard on the 6z GFS.
Euro dumps half a foot from an inland I-95 coastal late next Tues into Wed in the Mountains. East TN and Mtns might have some bonafide excitement from a synoptic event, with upslope on top as it exits.
Euro dumps half a foot from an inland I-95 coastal late next Tues into Wed in the Mountains. East TN and Mtns might have some bonafide excitement from a synoptic event, with upslope on top as it exits.
packfan98
Moderator
Hopefully more good trends today. I didn’t see much individual support from the 0z GEFS or for the first system on the 6z. Haven’t looked at the upper level means yet to compare the development of the pattern.
Digital snow will keep me happy for a while though. This place sucks when there’s no hope in the heart of winter.
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NCSNOW
Member
I do see the SE Ridge at play to an extent, and it looks like on just glancing at everything it creates a pattern conducive to producing a lot of seaboard runners. Trick is are they up through the piedmont regions, coastal Plains, or coastline. You'll hear the MA crew and especially NE crew, not curse the SE ridge like we do, because it helps produce these Nor'easter type tracks.
packfan98
Moderator
I definitely see the potential for some sloppy CAD storms. The precip looks to be there for sure. Now we have to get some cold air in place for CAD, and then we turn to the storm track to see who might actually get some snow.
tennessee storm
Member
Apps runners look be in play also
packfan98
Moderator
Definitely the most likely track for much of the next couple of weeks. That could still produce in CAD regions east of the mountains. Then there appears to be a slightly more southern track (potentially a Miller A) that could produce for more of the SE.
So I’d say the best potential regions are on the NW fringe from LA, MS, AL, TN, KY, and the CAD region east of the mountains. Now we watch and wait.
Winter WX ? or not drought relief coming to the SE.
NCSNOW
Member
Agree; You don't see it coming from Miller B's either, several waves get amped rounding the base of the trough. Be interesting to see unfold
lexxnchloe
Member
Lets hope that happens
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The Canadian ensemble went from +NAO to big -NAO in about 4-5 runs.
MichaelJ
Member
With the track of that low on or just off the coast there could be a incerdbly tight gradient that will change precip types drastcially in jut 25-30 mile increments. Still too early to worry about exact track but the cold air will be marginal and will tend to favor the usual climo spots if it continues what the EPS is trying to paint for the SE. Either way, the NE is gonna get creamed IMO
rburrel2
Member
00z Euro is not far off for some wintry mix in CAD regions of NC at hr 156. Icon looks similar. 
Yep. I also liked the last frame (day 10). The 6z GFS was a great fantasy run but that's all it is right now is fantasy. The overall pattern, and maybe the general pattern setup, is the most important focal point for us right now.
0z euro day 10:
iGRXY
Member
The Biggest thing I've noticed is the increased -NAO and stronger 50/50 Low. We're going to trend right into a winter storm, specifically east of the mountains if we're not careful. Hopefully we can continue that trend and building in the Aleutian Low and pump some heights out west to go with the nice looking Atlantic.
Western SE probably has a similar, even better shot then us because their closer to the mean colder trough axis then us back east, specifically AR/MS/NAL/TN
That seems to have been the rule for the last three years of la nina. Memphis has been the place to be (for the south).
where is there a drought
iGRXY
Member
Eastern Carolinas, particularly Eastern SC has been dry for the most part.
Also Florida panhandle.
I’m in Eastern SC it’s been really dry since the fall.
Stormlover
Member
Larry Cosgrove on LinkedIn: Now admit it. You thought winter was over! Guess again. The classic… | 20 comments
Now admit it. You thought winter was over! Guess again. The classic January Thaw configuration is collapsing after a 2.5 week stay in North America. This… | 20 comments on LinkedIn
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This bit of writing is kind of poor. Talks about I95 area then immediately segues into Oklahoma Texas?Larry Cosgrove on LinkedIn: Now admit it. You thought winter was over! Guess again. The classic… | 20 comments
Now admit it. You thought winter was over! Guess again. The classic January Thaw configuration is collapsing after a 2.5 week stay in North America. This… | 20 comments on LinkedIn
The rightward shift in this path forecast in recent model runs is irksome. But for now I see this as a rain and thunder event for Interstate 95 communities and a rain/ice/snow change along and 150 miles to the left of the track. That could put parts of TX/OK into the Midwest and lower Great Lakes in some frozen precipitation.
Icon would be a nice severe setup with a northward lifting warm front with this sort of look 
Also don’t sleep on this for severe, right now looks like we stay south of the wedge boundary but eastern sections could uncover 
Stormlover
Member
iGRXY
Member
Atlantic looks a lot better but sheesh that's a severe event waiting to happen
Are biggest concern over the next 10 days is probably gonna be severe weather, especially that second look. Sticking a cutoff in the 4 corners to eventually get picked up has produced some notable severe weather events
Oh lord imagine Zander’s reaction 
Much more greenland blocking this run 
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Looks like the canadian is going for an ice storm in that later midrange period.
Once again, what we need to do In this pattern, is trap a TPV in Canada under the -NAO block to have a big supply of cold very close. last December, we weren’t successful at that as that was the goal. Let’s see if we can do it 
That’s a nasty severe weather look if I ever saw one 
Welp ?
iGRXY
Member
Part 2 of the severe that gets killed by CAD again. The deep south through southern Georgia, then along and south of I20 and along and east of 95 through the carolinas would be in the cross hairs for both of these potentials.
Are we looking at a severe weather threat instead of a winter weather threat?
Part 2 of the severe that gets killed by CAD again. The deep south through southern Georgia, then along and south of I20 and along and east of 95 through the carolinas would be in the cross hairs for both of these potentials.
At least the cold is on the right side. Silver lining. Should make for a sharper gradient and stronger ?
NCSNOW
Member
12z canadian for Monday
0z Euro for Monday
0z Euro for Monday