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Pattern Jammin January 2023

KyloG said:
Seasonal snowfall…95 crew, DC to PHL to NY to BOS is bleak.

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Still very early overall but that is an amazingly sparse map for the whole Southern Appalachian region; Eastern KY and TN, Western VA and NC, even Southern WV with just a trace to an inch or two. Much of Kansas very little, even just 3-6 inches for much of MO to OH and WV. So far this has been feast for those in the West and North of 40 Lat, and famine elsewhere. Check out Long Island!
 
Try this map Jimmy. Zoom in an move around. The little red dots are cabins avaiable I beleive. Some have price listed, but the red dots are the ones you need to search. Not so much the ones with price tags. Play around, move map.Good luck and post pics for us poor folks.

Google Travel

www.google.com www.google.com
 
NCSNOW said:
Try this map Jimmy. Zoom in an move around. The little red dots are cabins avaiable I beleive. Some have price listed, but the red dots are the ones you need to search. Not so much the ones with price tags. Play around, move map.Good luck and post pics for us poor folks.

Google Travel

www.google.com www.google.com
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I’m poor too ? that’s why I’m eyeing that $130 room in Cherokee

Just tell me it’s going to snow there and I’ll go ?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I’m poor too ? that’s why I’m eyeing that $130 room in Cherokee

Just tell me it’s going to snow there and I’ll go ?
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There’s plenty of things to bet on in Cherokee especially with their new sports gambling area but snow sure isn’t one of them lol
 
CMC Ensemble with the Pac pattern flip here Jan 19 to 23

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Ice in Michigan with latest Euro
 
tennessee storm said:
To bad it’s cmc
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The signal on this has been there for quite a while now. I even mentioned this very potential a few weeks ago (granted it’s occurring significantly later than I thought it would initially).

Rossby waves are always trying retrograde against the mean flow as a way to balance earth’s rotation, however horizontal advection by the background flow causes them to translate eastward on shorter time scales especially. The larger and more amplified a Rossby Wave is, the greater the beta effect is & the more likely it will retrograde against the mean flow and that’s exactly what’s occurring here in this model forecast, which causes a +PNA and possibly a -EPO beyond this forecast valid time. Unlike synoptic scale Rossby Waves, these larger scale planetary waves evolve very slowly over many weeks of time and are predictable at the kind of scales we’re concerned with here. Their coupling with tropical convection is also thought to contribute to the MJO phenomena, making it distinctive from its close cousin, the Convectively coupled Kelvin Wave.

Eventually, this trough will retrograde so far west (as is again typical for highly amplified large scale waves like this) that this downstream ridge will mirror it/follow suit and end up closer to the Gulf of Alaska & Aleutians, setting up a more classic La Niña/-PNA/SE ridge pattern, probably in early February or so.
 
Those guys on the opposite end of the bathtub than us, have been in the deep freeze and look to stay in it as far as the eye can see. Never changes. Heres last frame on the gfs 12z today. No signs of any sloshing back this way,outside of ones Grit had to dig around to find. Maybe Gefs and eps can start sniffing something out ,like geps is trying to.

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NCSNOW said:
Those guys on the opposite end of the bathtub than us, have been in the deep freeze and look to stay in it as far as the eye can see. Never changes. Heres last frame on the gfs 12z today. No signs of any sloshing back this way,outside of ones Grit had to dig around to find. Maybe Gefs and eps can start sniffing something out ,like geps is trying to.

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EPS already started showing this yesterday. Long range or even medium range GFS is the most unreliable tool out there. Best not to use
 
EPS is about twice as aggressive as the gefs in regards to the NWFS next weekend for the mountains. I am not comfortable enough to pull the trigger yet. I have seen these NWF setups either dry up or ramp up. Hopefully there will be better agreement over the next 48 hours. Both the GEFS and eps have members with nothing and some up to 6 inches. Quiet a spread.
 
Latest HRRR seems to be speeding up the precip shield into central NC. Dews will be in the mid/upper 20s and temps mostly in the mid 30s. That's not cold enough for much freezing rain concerns, but we could see some pockets of sleet. Not much but it's something.

20z HRRR tomorrow morning:
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