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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Gfs and GEFS start breaking down the ridging towards the end of the run. So there’s that. For all the AN values we’ve seen the past decade I’d expect our normal values to be much higher than they are.


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This is a workable look if we can get some energy to eject out of the SW.
 
The pattern on the overnight models and the 12z gefs so far is good but not great. We are certainly in the game for at least a short period of time but objectively the window to miss via early phase or shearing something into oblivion is larger than the window to overrun the likely cool enough air mass or phase perfectly. We may be waiting for our threat until around1/30- 2/2 when the pacific relaxes and we arent driving the sfc high deep into the region to get something but then you are fighting the SER response and it's miller b time. You can see the gefs heating up id supect there are some decent looking individual members thengfs-ens_apcpn24_us_49.png
 
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metwannabe said:
Tried to setup a nice deform band but marginal temps. This is doable though

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Euro has been consistent in wanting to shunt these storms off our coast and up.. while and GFS and CMC have been stead fast on cutting .. I’d have to assume someone’s missing something here. Thinking maybe the key is the amount of blocking shown on the models is the biggest difference I can tell
 
Obviously take the snowfall totals with a huge grain of salt, marginal temps and that is what falls not what accums, also probably lots of mixing issues. But we got time to reel this one in, we can get one this year can't we?!
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Euro has been consistent in wanting to shunt these storms off our coast and up.. while and GFS and CMC have been stead fast on cutting .. I’d have to assume someone’s missing something here. Thinking maybe the key is the amount of blocking shown on the models is the biggest difference I can tell
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And western ridging of course vs keeping energy in the west which buffs up the SER
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Euro has been consistent in wanting to shunt these storms off our coast and up.. while and GFS and CMC have been stead fast on cutting .. I’d have to assume someone’s missing something here. Thinking maybe the key is the amount of blocking shown on the models is the biggest difference I can tell
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Blocking shows first and surface reflection shows later, always been the case.... if the blocking continues to come in strong on future model runs, you will see wild swings
 
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