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Tropical Hurricane Lee

There is little to inhibit Lee's development during the next few days. Bath water warm ocean temperatures and little wind shear in its path suggest a potential Cat 4 or Cat 5 storm. The question early next week will be where does that trough which is coming in this weekend set up along the East Coast and how strong will it be. I just saw a meteorologist suggest that that trough may not get as far east as previously thought and this is what the Euro could be sensing versus the GFS which has it further out to sea.
 
00Z Ukie had it pretty deep

850hv.conus.png
 
When does it turn north, The euro ens mean came all the way out to 68 west last night. The turn is still 5 days out as evidenced by the nhc cone. This thing makes it to 70 west before then or stays deep like Ukie has shown past 2 runs, then chances of a conus LF go way up. No way models nail this turn down exactly from over 120 hours out, So expect a shift by a couple of degrees perhaps one way or the other.

AL132023_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
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