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Tropical Hurricane Lee

It's definitely getting the islands back in play
I was just about to say… this should be at full strength by then and it wouldn’t take much of shift south from those to at least give them a glancing blow. I did notice earlier that Webb isn’t convinced yet this is definitely OTS yet.
 
Just when the GFS takes a dump on us the Euro comes more west

tonight

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_watl_64.png



12z yesterday
ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_watl_64.png
 
Each cycle more and more ensembles cross 70 west at some point. The mean line (Black) is a hard sharp right turn at 68. See if it nudges anymore the next few cycles.
 
HMON joined the HAFS at blowing this thing up to a 5 in a few days with the HAFS doubling down and sitting pressure near 900 with long-term cat 5 winds. Either the HAFS is going to be the DGEX of hurricane models now or we're about to see something we haven't seen since Maria and Irma in terms of intensity.
 
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