Cary_Snow95
Member
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Tropical Hurricane Lee
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
Definitely a westward shift on the Euro, still misses the EC for the most part although the NE might still be in play. Slows it down before the turn n/nw also. Still long ways to go with this one
Downeastnc
Member
the Bahama stall is nothing new, seems the big nasty storms dont like to turn fast down that far south.....any kind of stall could be trouble.....but only if the ridging is stout enough to push the storm back NW, alot of times they will linger or move real slow and wait for the next trough.
lexxnchloe
Member
decent west shift
Not sure the trough will do exactly what the models are projecting it to do as far as timing is concerned. This could pull it a bit more west than current models project.
lexxnchloe
Member
I thought the west shift would start last night. delayed 12 hours
Storm still seems too far north at that point. It is highly unlikely to proceed west or wnw from that position. It really needs to be farther to the south at that time.
Steven_1974
Member
Surely you're not rooting for it to hit the east coast.GFS is quite a bit better. Will the euro improve?
12z today
last night
lexxnchloe
Member
Dont even start that. No one is here because they like boring weather. When you can prove i have the power to control the weather then you can begin the guilt trips
Brent
Member
Yeah for me to really believe a legit US threat I'm gonna say it needs to run closer to PR this weekend... If it's way north like forecast now forget it. Also the overwhelming majority of the ensembles are still clearly OTS
You have to remember that most storms in this area recurve. It takes a perfect setup to get a hit. Something is gonna have to change from the current track
Actually I just looked, Fran was a little further further north of the Caribbean and Florence was a lot further north when compared to what the 12z GFS and the 12z UKMET showed. Florence never even threatened the Virgin Islands it was moving so far north… it looked at that point like it would go east of Bermuda.
lexxnchloe
Member
GFS has another repeat but its alot weaker over the same water and this trof means business.
lexxnchloe
Member
Dont forget isabel
The one thing that gives me a little pause is seeing where the 12Z UKMET positions the storm at the end of its run. That’s been the model that has often caught onto the storms out there taking a more westerly track the last few years… Irma and Florence are a couple of examples.
lexxnchloe
Member
The big difference on the euro is the low east of LEE. At 12z they may be interacting. last night the low was far NE
Last night
today
Last night
today
Obviously most of the EPS members are OTS but did notice a small clustering of members that are slowing it down now with less pronounced northward turn (at least a slower turn anyway)
If you want a hit with the Euro, you need something like this.
lexxnchloe
Member
That would imply 264 and 288 will be interesting