What you see currently would be a better response in my humble opinion! I’ve said it before, it’s a weather board and it’s probably the only thing worth discussing at the moment but it’s still 12-13 days out. Live by the individual op runs and you might be correct but a lot can change! I also don’t get why you would want to see destruction as modeled currently?
Out to 210 the pressure has risen to 958 and it looks like it’s starting to bend back west some. Should still end up turning N and NE though in the next couple frames
Yeah I was premature on that going off of past runs and the current frame! Learning everyday!
I mean it's only a jump from maritime Canada to just off the mid Atlantic in one run
I might have spoke too soon as well. At 240 it looks like it might be headed for New England landfall
Is it a full recurve or a sce ario where it gets dropped off long enough to turn back west and threaten New England as depicted in the gfs is still a big question.
The 12z icon is the first model run so far that gets my attention with this. It really slows down between 144 and 180. If it stalls near the Bahamas it changes the game pretty drastically since we open the window for some Atlantic ridge flex between troughs and you get into a Dorian like situation where it can renew its NW movement toward the SE coast but even then this may be too far E that even a renewed WNW to NW track wouldn't be enough to beat the trough to the SE US coast
As much as the gfs and others have improved over the last few years when the escape hatch on a hurricane comes down to the 500mb pattern across the US and north Atlantic I'm going to lean towards the euro/eps until they are proven wrong. You can see the 12z gefs already recurving well east and the only run to run trend is really south not west
I Always keep a watchful eye on the ukmet and have learned to never discount that one either. It's performance with both Irma and Florence was pretty good even though it was seen as an outlier to both originally.
