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Tropical Hurricane Lee

Arcc said:
If you want a hit with the Euro, you need something like this.

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Yep you have to disconnect the wave over the NE from the energy from the southern plains and allow the ridge to build back into the mid Atlantic to force it due west or its still ots or hits the NE
 
What no one is talking about is the disturbance near the bahamas now. No model develops it and i dont think a surprise storm will pop up but whether it just dissipates or gets a little more organized could be important.


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SD said:
Yep you have to disconnect the wave over the NE from the energy from the southern plains and allow the ridge to build back into the mid Atlantic to force it due west or its still ots or hits the NE
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Yep...it would need a lot of work for a hit, not impossible but not something I am rooting for either. I would rather see some cool weather.

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metwannabe said:
Obviously most of the EPS members are OTS but did notice a small clustering of members that are slowing it down now with less pronounced northward turn (at least a slower turn anyway)

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That would have to be the camp to watch to see if more members start to join that line of thinking. I like to say we have to get the ball on the court and those further SW members are a step to getting that ball on the court
 
Trough over the great lakes looks less amped and more positive tilt as it makes the NW turn slightly west of 12z
 
Shaggy said:
Really digs in past hour 138 should be a clean recurve with none of that turn back to the NW
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Its going too fast again but lets see what midnight shows. Meanwhile i will post how the gfs may give us Gloria part 2 in the tropical thread
 
weather bubba said:
Although all bets are still on the table, it appears Lee will stay offshore for now. No matter how much someone likes chasing storms or exciting weather, the NHS thinks Lee is one storm that any rational person wants no part of.
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If it were to hit land NC north it would be considerably weaker than its peak strength
 

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metwannabe said:
It's definitely getting the islands back in play
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I was just about to say… this should be at full strength by then and it wouldn’t take much of shift south from those to at least give them a glancing blow. I did notice earlier that Webb isn’t convinced yet this is definitely OTS yet.
 
Each cycle more and more ensembles cross 70 west at some point. The mean line (Black) is a hard sharp right turn at 68. See if it nudges anymore the next few cycles.
 
HMON joined the HAFS at blowing this thing up to a 5 in a few days with the HAFS doubling down and sitting pressure near 900 with long-term cat 5 winds. Either the HAFS is going to be the DGEX of hurricane models now or we're about to see something we haven't seen since Maria and Irma in terms of intensity.
 
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