Tropical Hurricane Lee

[lexxnchloe]

Euro tonight. faster and a bit more west.

12z yesterday

 

[lexxnchloe]

Ends up hitting eastern Maine it appears.

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[NoSnowATL]

Boston to Maine should keep watching. Everyone else is safe.

 

[Stevo24]

We always sit and debate, but these hurricane models are almost always right. It will do exactly what they say it will do, curve out to sea.

 

[Rain Cold]

What is the Korean saying today?

The GFS and Euro are just trough after trough as cyclones approach. Looks like they were a week or two too late.

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[Shawn]

We always sit and debate, but these hurricane models are almost always right. It will do exactly what they say it will do, curve out to sea.

I think this is a situation where we have to remember that the entire USA is not the Southeast. Mid-Atlantic into the NE area is still in play. The odds they are so far off this thing plows into FL, SC, or most of NC is pretty low at this point.

 

[weather bubba]

Unless the data input from reconnaissance flights changes what the models are showing, the East Coast from the Mid Atlantic south is probably safe. Interests further north should still pay attention to what's going on with Lee and where it may go.

 

[Arcc]

We always sit and debate, but these hurricane models are almost always right. It will do exactly what they say it will do, curve out to sea.

Well here we have it, time to shut down the forum I guess or just regulate the posts to whining about lack of rain or heat.

 

[Metwannabe]

EPS stabilized overnight with all members turning north and missing the EC south of NE. NE, especially Maine and SE Canada seem to be the point now but that's 10 days away, could still turn and miss everyone (except Bermuda). If there were to be any threat to anyone else along EC you'd see more uncertainty in track guidance today, not writing it off but highly doubt it

 

[Metwannabe]

Eye becoming visible now, RI is approaching

 

[JHS]

We always sit and debate, but these hurricane models are almost always right. It will do exactly what they say it will do, curve out to sea.

Just like 1995. We may get something yet though from the gulf like we did with Opal that year. The season may very well last longer than usual due to warm water temperatures.

 

[JHS]

I think this is a situation where we have to remember that the entire USA is not the Southeast. Mid-Atlantic into the NE area is still in play. The odds they are so far off this thing plows into FL, SC, or most of NC is pretty low at this point.

That's true and they may have a big problem in about 7-10 days. More likely in Canada though. It is early yet but we may be done here in the southeast from the long track Atlantic storms unless one can get into the Carribean. The gulf is another story entirely and it is very possible that something forms there and comes in. ALL of us are still in play for tropical weather for a while, probably until late November.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

That's true and they may have a big problem in about 7-10 days. More likely in Canada though. It is early yet but we may be done here in the southeast from the long track Atlantic storms unless one can get into the Carribean. The gulf is another story entirely and it is very possible that something forms there and comes in. ALL of us are still in play for tropical weather for a while, probably until late November.

Until late November lol. Most of the US doesn't have to worry about the tropics after Mid October, unless you're in South Florida. At least that's the way it seems to be in most years.

 

[Chazwin]

That's true and they may have a big problem in about 7-10 days. More likely in Canada though. It is early yet but we may be done here in the southeast from the long track Atlantic storms unless one can get into the Carribean. The gulf is another story entirely and it is very possible that something forms there and comes in. ALL of us are still in play for tropical weather for a while, probably until late November.

I doubt we see anything deep into November in Gulf. Storms have a harder time holding together as sheer increases when the STJ becomes more active. I do think that development in the Western Caribbean and Gulf is definitely a strong possibility the rest of September and the first half of October.

 

[EmersonGA]

I doubt we see anything deep into November in Gulf. Storms have a harder time holding together as sheer increases when the STJ becomes more active. I do think that development in the Western Caribbean and Gulf is definitely a strong possibility the rest of September and the first half of October.

To me it looks like Idalia did a good job of lowering the SST's in the eastern gulf at least.

 

[Chazwin]

To me it looks like Idalia did a good job of lowering the SST's in the eastern gulf at least.

Yes and with Franklin and Idalia last week and now Lee, the western Atlantic will be churned up good as well to help lower SSTs there.