This is dumb but whatever
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Tropical Hurricane Lee
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
Downeastnc
Member
I imagine there will be a bunch of Gulfstream flights the next week or so as well..
Shaggy
Member
Those will be crucial
Shaggy
Member
I’m getting serious Irma vibes.
Shaggy
Member
I'd be watching the ukmet if these west trends continue because it's been west the entire time
I mentioned this yesterday. The UKIE sniffed out both Irma and Florence before other modeling caught on.
jeremyt
Member
Are the conditions similar to those storms?
Henry2326
Member
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and none of those were right on how far south it would go
Henry2326
Member
This is interesting.....is that a stop?
lexxnchloe
Member
SW trend
NCSNOW
Member
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true,but if you look at 5h across can/us border, even back into sw us, energy is different looking. May,may not mean anything. Little wrinkles add up 5 days plus out. Lot of pieces to the jiggsaw puzzle before we get final picture. Could as easily wind up more east verse more west for all we know.
The biggest issue here is while models may be better they still have the same issues with resolving the speed and strength of waves in the northern stream they had several years ago. If that wave over the SE on the Euro slows and shifts west, which happens nearly every time; the effects of track could be enormous. That all said, a phantom under modeled wave out of the north could do the same in the other direction.
Brent
Member
Irma(and Florence even...) also dove south of the track a lot which is something to watch for.. so far Lee hasn't but it's so far out still. I still lean heavily on the recurve side(I mean for starters I have highs in the 70s next week... A total pattern change from the last month) but we are talking day 9-10 and errors can be large
I would definitely wait to see more runs to see if the west trends continue because it could easily flip back east by morning
I would definitely wait to see more runs to see if the west trends continue because it could easily flip back east by morning
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Holy moly…. Some differences obviously, but too close for comfort. How far north Lee gets may have huge implications.
Edit: Orientation of the northern trough will be a big factor as well. The more negative tilt means greater ridge pump.
Edit: Orientation of the northern trough will be a big factor as well. The more negative tilt means greater ridge pump.
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lexxnchloe
Member
About 30 miles south of 18z on ICON
Brent
Member
Yeah it's interesting like it hits a brick wall