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Tropical Hurricane Lee

metwannabe said:
Just minor changes from one run to the next lol

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So many unknowns, like how Margot will affect the ridge, how much does Lee slow, how deep or shallow does the trough verify as....anyone that thinks this thing is locked in is nuts lol. Still very likely to miss but there are ways for this to change a lot
 
GEFS seem to be kind of following the 06Z Euro lead with some much more west running members so far....

12Z

gefs_2023-09-08-12Z_114_36.131_277.802_18.686_304.613_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png


06Z

gefs_2023-09-08-06Z_120_35.693_279.204_18.467_307.417_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png
 
Downeastnc said:
Some of the timing differences here are nuts, got one at the latitude of the VA capes and another down around the same latitude as Miami.

gefs_2023-09-08-12Z_150_41.606_273.947_14.234_309.608_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png
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That spaghetti plot does show a lot of variance in timing between the plots. Lee will slow down if the trough does not go as far east as advertised or is weaker than current prognostications. Some of those plots are also getting a little too close to the Outer Banks for comfort if they are extended out.
 
Downeastnc said:
Some of the timing differences here are nuts, got one at the latitude of the VA capes and another down around the same latitude as Miami.

gefs_2023-09-08-12Z_150_41.606_273.947_14.234_309.608_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png
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And yet they all hockey stick right. The models are all going to have to sleepwalk through the upper air pattern if this is going to hit the US anywhere other than Maine. Anything can happen, I suppose, but it still looks like the vast majority of the eastern US is out of the woods.
 
Rain Cold said:
And yet they all hockey stick right. The models are all going to have to sleepwalk through the upper air pattern if this is going to hit the US anywhere other than Maine. Anything can happen, I suppose, but it still looks like the vast majority of the eastern US is out of the woods.
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There's been a consistent consensus for a turn around 70W. No reason to doubt it until they give us a reason
 
Like I mentioned the other day, unless a ridge builds over the top and forces it w or wnw, it's a fish storm, except maybe in the ne. Apparently the ridge isn't going to be good enough imo
 
Draw a line N/S where Haiti and DR meet. At a minimum thats the benchmark line for NC coast. Until it crosses that point, no fret. That being said it inches closer each cycle.
 
Stevo24 said:
I don’t know a lot about hurricanes. Is this going to just stay at a cat 4-cat 5 or will it lose strength and then regain it?
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It will probably go up and down depending on if there's some shear or not like today

Also the ERC's are a natural way of going up and down in strength but they are random. That's why Idalia was unexpectedly weakening at landfall
 
Looking on tropical tidbits IR satellite loop, what does the pink represent near the center where the eye is now clouded over? On the loop, it was there briefly.
 
Snow_chaser said:
Guess that goes to show models are great tools but ya just have to wait and see. They didn’t expect the rapid blowup last night and the deterioration today.
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Yeah. The models weren't bonkers enough to depict such a large swing in intensity in a mere 42 hours. From TS to Category 5 to Category 2. Then there's the matter of the COC moving due west if not a smidge N of W. The Freaking Steering Pattern is changed.

Layer Mean Wind - West Atlantic - Steering Layer 700-850mb - Latest Available

tropic.ssec.wisc.edu
 
Brent said:
Down to 120 mph on BT. Yeesh.

Can't believe we were talking about historic last night

Just goes to show that even though track forecasts have gotten a lot better intensity leaves a lot to be desired
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Takes more than "bath water"
 
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