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Tropical Hurricane Lee

Isn't the ukmet so far south because it's ridiculously weaker vs other guidance on the intensity charts (as of last night at least)
 
This is my two cents. Unless a high pressure builds over the top or in the western atlantic to keep it south, it's a fish storm or maybe in the extreme ne. Guess we will see how it ultimately plays out
 
12z Ukmet looks even futher south than 0Z run. Far out as I can go

500hv.conus.png
 
If I'm viewing this right, seems like something's off with the ukmet idk 13L_intensity_12z.png
 
Itryatgolf said:
This is my two cents. Unless a high pressure builds over the top or in the western atlantic to keep it south, it's a fish storm or maybe in the extreme ne. Guess we will see how it ultimately plays out
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Well of course you'd need ridging to the north of the system so it won't climb. The 00z euro op showed how it can happen splitting the trough or whatever you wanna call it.. tucking a piece into Canada and dropping another piece over the se/gulf
 
metwannabe said:
GFS ots but slower, further west and need to watch trend with that trough digging SW.

View attachment 136874
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Not only is the GFS further west with its latest run but further south too. That indicates that a high may be building in north of Lee and that will push Lee more to the south. If a high pressure system sets up shop in New England then the flow will do two things, push Lee further south and keep the trough that is supposed to pick Lee up and escort it out to sea from moving far enough east to prevent landfall somewhere along the East Coast.
 
weather bubba said:
Not only is the GFS further west with its latest run but further south too. That indicates that a high may be building in north of Lee and that will push Lee more to the south. If a high pressure system sets up shop in New England then the flow will do two things, push Lee further south and keep the trough that is supposed to pick Lee up and escort it out to sea from moving far enough east to prevent landfall somewhere along the East Coast.
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The trend seems to be a bit more west each run
 
Seems most modeling is also slowing Lee down, you can add Euro to that as well.... really don't know if that has any effect down the road or not
 
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