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Tropical Hurricane Lee

050
URNT15 KNHC 080306
AF306 0213A LEE HDOB 42 20230908
025800 1733N 05217W 6969 03001 9867 +102 //// 115105 106 086 000 01
025830 1731N 05219W 6962 02990 9844 +097 //// 113109 111 088 001 01
025900 1730N 05220W 6952 02976 //// +088 //// 108114 115 094 002 01
025930 1728N 05221W 6971 02914 9776 +091 //// 109124 128 099 005 01
030000 1727N 05222W 6964 02883 9749 +089 //// 106134 138 110 020 01
030030 1725N 05224W 6961 02822 //// +084 //// 103143 147 123 054 01
030100 1724N 05225W 6949 02754 //// +102 //// 105127 143 142 018 01
030130 1722N 05227W 7002 02610 9423 +170 +130 097085 112 142 008 00
030200 1720N 05228W 6969 02622 9355 +211 +087 095051 066 117 000 03
030230 1718N 05228W 7003 02560 9314 +238 +083 091036 046 061 000 03
030300 1717N 05228W 7009 02530 9278 +261 +037 086025 031 042 000 00
030330 1715N 05228W 6984 02546 9259 +267 +017 075018 022 033 000 00
030400 1713N 05228W 6962 02570 9253 +260 +023 078010 017 /// /// 03
030430 1711N 05228W 6962 02559 9256 +245 +059 257026 047 037 000 03
030500 1710N 05226W 6963 02581 9325 +188 +119 241080 092 090 000 00
030530 1709N 05224W 6976 02642 9416 +121 //// 236119 129 127 034 01
030600 1708N 05222W 6935 02788 //// +090 //// 222125 130 127 042 01
030630 1707N 05220W 6991 02795 9656 +119 +104 215120 127 112 028 00
030700 1707N 05219W 6977 02863 9724 +106 //// 215110 115 098 000 01
030730 1706N 05217W 6935 02954 9786 +090 //// 217101 108 097 000 05
$$
;
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142 kts FL, 143 kt SFMR, 924.3 mb. SW eyewall.
 
Snowfan said:
142 kts FL, 143 kt SFMR, 924.3 mb. SW eyewall.
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I believe based on the past few passes and looking at IR that it may have leveled out. While the HAFS models are ballistic, the 18z HMON and HWRF show this peaking in the next few hours around 140kts. Will be a really good test to see what is closest.
 
Arcc said:
I believe based on the past few passes and looking at IR that it may have leveled out. While the HAFS models are ballistic, the 18z HMON and HWRF show this peaking in the next few hours around 140kts. Will be a really good test to see what is closest.
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Convection just intensified immensely on the western eyewall last couple frames on IR... I'm not so sure Lee is done yet.
 
Gefs hasnt finished but out sonar to the turn and it seems that western batch of members trying to show back up?
 

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181.8 mph (158 knot) SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind:

045400 1723N 05250W 6971 02553 9238 +275 +003 214012 018 /// /// 03
045430 1724N 05252W 6976 02537 9230 +276 +004 102003 010 /// /// 03
045500 1724N 05254W 6983 02530 9240 +266 +022 021025 030 038 000 03
045530 1725N 05255W 6968 02552 9271 +222 +096 024046 054 /// /// 03
045600 1726N 05255W 6961 02550 9259 +224 +093 044043 053 /// /// 03
045630 1726N 05254W 6970 02533 9216 +274 +031 069021 037 057 000 03
045700 1726N 05252W 6965 02536 9207 +283 +005 104010 013 039 000 03
045730 1728N 05251W 6969 02535 9242 +243 +058 098030 040 /// /// 03
045800 1729N 05252W 6967 02554 9289 +207 +070 079061 072 077 000 00
045830 1730N 05254W 6969 02586 9359 +168 +110 070092 105 136 000 00
045900 1732N 05255W 6936 02699 //// +109 //// 067132 144 158 027 01
045930 1733N 05257W 6969 02774 //// +079 //// 062148 153 153 055 01
050000 1734N 05258W 6998 02799 //// +077 //// 059140 143 121 072 05
050030 1735N 05300W 6951 02909 //// +080 //// 061126 138 104 071 01
050100 1736N 05301W 6987 02902 //// +082 //// 062115 124 096 048 01
050130 1738N 05302W 6962 02963 9829 +091 //// 066109 114 093 021 01
050200 1739N 05304W 6965 02986 9848 +082 //// 064104 109 088 014 01
050230 1740N 05305W 6953 03021 9881 +089 //// 059101 105 083 024 01
050300 1741N 05306W 6974 03011 9887 +102 +100 059095 098 079 002 00
050330 1743N 05308W 6969 03029 9899 +105 +097 058089 092 073 000 00
050400 1744N 05309W 6971 03041 9900 +115 +099 057085 087 069 000 00
050430 1745N 05310W 6963 03059 9911 +112 +104 058082 085 066 000 00
050500 1746N 05312W 6973 03058 9912 +123 +096 059077 080 064 000 00
050530 1747N 05313W 6963 03075 9921 +119 +097 064076 077 064 000 00
050600 1749N 05315W 6967 03081 9931 +121 +097 064074 076 062 000 00
050630 1750N 05316W 6973 03082 9945 +118 +095 062073 074 060 000 00
050700 1751N 05317W 6966 03098 9959 +111 +099 058071 073 063 000 0
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At the rate 00z HAFS-B has it going up compared to the true rate, this could possibly reach 195 to 200 mph at 12z.
 
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Same deal, different year. Yay winter storm tracking.

Edit: Boston may be in play this run. If that ULL goes negative tilt, Lee is gonna rocket up there like a bullet.

1694153809473.gif
 
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ForsythSnow said:
Clear sudden weakening on the storm this morning. Definitely not a 5 anymore and looks to be still going WNW
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Yep. Got that flat look to its convection on the W side. It's going to continue experiencing shear as long as it continues to gain latitude. At least over next 6-12 hours. 941Mb on latest dropsonde.
 
Brick Tamland said:
When is it supposed to turn north?
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Still about 4 days out but as shaggy noted around 70W (either side of) is what most modeling is depicting

13L_tracks_latest.png
 
Several Hurricane models actually bend almost due west just before the turn north, important to keep that in mind if/when that occurs. I'm sure some will start to panic or get excited when that happens lol
 
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metwannabe said:
Several Hurricane models actually bend almost due west just before the turn north, important to keep that in mind if/when that occurs. I'm sure some will start to panic or get excited when that happens lol
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Yeah it's going to be a somewhat quick left turn but thankfully it slows down when it bends back W or even WSW. If it were motoring along and made that turn for 36 hours we'd have bigger issues along the SE coast
 
metwannabe said:
Several Hurricane models actually bend almost due west just before the turn north, important to keep that in mind if/when that occurs. I'm sure some will start to panic or get excited when that happens lol
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Really I would not all clear anyone on the EC just yet, and especially not NC to the north....Jim thinks its gonna be a threat, at this point its more likely to trend west than east by a wide margin....

 
Downeastnc said:
Really I would not all clear anyone on the EC just yet, and especially not NC to the north....Jim thinks its gonna be a threat, at this point its more likely to trend west than east by a wide margin....

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Lot of wishcasting in the comments section of that tweet
 
metwannabe said:
Lot of wishcasting in the comments section of that tweet
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Thats everywhere but the thing I took away is Cantore thought the west trend was not done....I guess 5 days out is a long time for things to change some....if the trough does not dig far enough, or if the ridge is stronger longer, if if if ......I just remember Florence was a guaranteed fish in this range with lots of consensus lol.

Chances are this thing runs up right between the Hatteras and Bermuda and gives the Canadian SE coast a good scare.....just like the models show...
 
Downeastnc said:
Thats everywhere but the thing I took away is Cantore thought the west trend was not done....I guess 5 days out is a long time for things to change some....if the trough does not dig far enough, or if the ridge is stronger longer, if if if ......I just remember Florence was a guaranteed fish in this range with lots of consensus lol.

Chances are this thing runs up right between the Hatteras and Bermuda and gives the Canadian SE coast a good scare.....just like the models show...
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Irma was supposed to stay way off the Southeast . You can can go back and see the Spagetti models. And you see how that turned out. Models are just that models. Nothing is set in stone with hurricanes.
 
Downeastnc said:
Thats everywhere but the thing I took away is Cantore thought the west trend was not done....I guess 5 days out is a long time for things to change some....if the trough does not dig far enough, or if the ridge is stronger longer, if if if ......I just remember Florence was a guaranteed fish in this range with lots of consensus lol.

Chances are this thing runs up right between the Hatteras and Bermuda and gives the Canadian SE coast a good scare.....just like the models show...
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The thing is for every west trend we remember there's an east we probably have forgotten bc we didn't get impacts Joaquin is a prime example, Floyd trended east as well even though it still made LF.

I do think it's worth watching Sunday-Tuesday as it bends back W to make 100% sure it doesn't get buried. With the Atlantic ridge axis to its northeast and a trough over the eastern US unless it gets completely buried south a rapid turn to the NW then N seems most likely. I will say the concern imo for Long Island to Maine is should be pretty high. That Atlantic ridge to the NW of the system makes the east escape harder and I'm not confident that a full miss of the US mainland happens
 
SD said:
The thing is for every west trend we remember there's an east we probably have forgotten bc we didn't get impacts Joaquin is a prime example, Floyd trended east as well even though it still made LF.

I do think it's worth watching Sunday-Tuesday as it bends back W to make 100% sure it doesn't get buried. With the Atlantic ridge axis to its northeast and a trough over the eastern US unless it gets completely buried south a rapid turn to the NW then N seems most likely. I will say the concern imo for Long Island to Maine is should be pretty high. That Atlantic ridge to the NW of the system makes the east escape harder and I'm not confident that a full miss of the US mainland happens
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I think when it slows down we start to see the ensembles spread out...already seeing some signs of that on the 06Z Euro....

ecens_2023-09-08-06Z_144_34.088_278.941_16.058_306.716_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 54.5W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES
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No longer a Cat 5.
 
Anyone heard anything if they will be doing balloon launches over Canada and the northern US to get data for model ingests?
 
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