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Tropical Hurricane Lee

This has to be one of the fastest drops I've ever seen over water from 165 this morning

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115
mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts
 
Brent said:
This has to be one of the fastest drops I've ever seen over water from 165 this morning

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115
mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts
Click to expand...

Reverseification....I wonder what the fastest or largest range for a non landfalling storm is.
 
Arcc said:
I’m going with Hurricane Lili. I think it went from a Cat 4 to Cat 1 just before landfall. That collapse was absolutely epic.
Click to expand...

Ah yes I remember that one as a kid. It was literally within a few hours ?
 
Dry air is eating Lee up. You can see the damage to the the inner core on IR when hot towers erupt then dissipate and the erupt again. I’d bet that is a rough ride for HH turbulence wise. I saw this morning they had to go around the eyewall at one point.
 
12z today

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_watl_55.png



last night

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_watl_57.png
 
SD said:
First trough entices the north movement but it's faster and weaker so the system stays NW to N vs any east movement. The 2nd trough across the US is deeper the Atlantic ridge responds and the system accelerates NNW into the NE
Click to expand...
Aren't you at a football game? ??
 
Something to note… with the weaker system we have now and not really forecasted a couple days, it’s more possible for the storm to go further west initially and stay further south were doesn’t get pulled completely away by the trough. That looks like what the 12z EURO did.
 
This thing's practically moving W per recon. Not sure if it's a wobble or it really is drifting more and more west than expected. Going to be interesting to watch but I'm wondering if the weakness is going to keep it from going poleward as fast as expected, hence the runs with a NE hit on some modeling.
 
ForsythSnow said:
This thing's practically moving W per recon. Not sure if it's a wobble or it really is drifting more and more west than expected. Going to be interesting to watch but I'm wondering if the weakness is going to keep it from going poleward as fast as expected, hence the runs with a NE hit on some modeling.
Click to expand...
Be something if it stayed weak and went far enough west, then strengthens and then makes a US hit
 
ForsythSnow said:
This thing's practically moving W per recon. Not sure if it's a wobble or it really is drifting more and more west than expected. Going to be interesting to watch but I'm wondering if the weakness is going to keep it from going poleward as fast as expected, hence the runs with a NE hit on some modeling.
Click to expand...
18z gefs had a strike on NC for the first time in a long time too, albeit just one member
 
Definitely more members hitting New England now. The slower trend definitely is increasing the threatAL13_2023091012_GEFS_large.png
 
So more and more it's looking like Lee will visit New England....anyone have a general time frame? I don't mind the rain, it's the winds that knock us around up here!!! Fingers crossed it fishes out!
 
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