• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Lee

Isn't the ukmet so far south because it's ridiculously weaker vs other guidance on the intensity charts (as of last night at least)
 
This is my two cents. Unless a high pressure builds over the top or in the western atlantic to keep it south, it's a fish storm or maybe in the extreme ne. Guess we will see how it ultimately plays out
 
12z Ukmet looks even futher south than 0Z run. Far out as I can go

500hv.conus.png
 
If I'm viewing this right, seems like something's off with the ukmet idk 13L_intensity_12z.png
 
Itryatgolf said:
This is my two cents. Unless a high pressure builds over the top or in the western atlantic to keep it south, it's a fish storm or maybe in the extreme ne. Guess we will see how it ultimately plays out
Click to expand...

Well of course you'd need ridging to the north of the system so it won't climb. The 00z euro op showed how it can happen splitting the trough or whatever you wanna call it.. tucking a piece into Canada and dropping another piece over the se/gulf
 
metwannabe said:
GFS ots but slower, further west and need to watch trend with that trough digging SW.

View attachment 136874
Click to expand...
Not only is the GFS further west with its latest run but further south too. That indicates that a high may be building in north of Lee and that will push Lee more to the south. If a high pressure system sets up shop in New England then the flow will do two things, push Lee further south and keep the trough that is supposed to pick Lee up and escort it out to sea from moving far enough east to prevent landfall somewhere along the East Coast.
 
weather bubba said:
Not only is the GFS further west with its latest run but further south too. That indicates that a high may be building in north of Lee and that will push Lee more to the south. If a high pressure system sets up shop in New England then the flow will do two things, push Lee further south and keep the trough that is supposed to pick Lee up and escort it out to sea from moving far enough east to prevent landfall somewhere along the East Coast.
Click to expand...
The trend seems to be a bit more west each run
 
Seems most modeling is also slowing Lee down, you can add Euro to that as well.... really don't know if that has any effect down the road or not
 
Shaggy said:
Looks like the Euro will be south a bit so far
Click to expand...
Yeah but turning north too unless something major changes I think that trough in one form or another will protect the EC

edit: I may have spoke too soon
 
Hurricane Lee
AL, 13, 2023090618, , BEST, 0, 146N, 460W, 65, 991, HU
 
A few stragglers went way west on 12z EPS, predominant turn north still there, little more spread, Maine/SE Canada hits and big take away, it is much slower

AL13_2023090612_ECENS_large.png
 
NCSNOW said:
Need a NOAA Recon up NW Canada, few dropsondes and forecast the trough right. More so than Lee itself.
Click to expand...
I just heard a meteorologist say that the Hurricane Hunters were scheduled to fly a recon flight tomorrow. When they are able to get some real time data, it will be fed into the models and we will get a better picture of where Lee will go. This meteorologist stated that if the storm track didn't change from the current track after the data was fed in that he felt pretty certain that Lee would be headed out to sea.
 
weather bubba said:
I just heard a meteorologist say that the Hurricane Hunters were scheduled to fly a recon flight tomorrow. When they are able to get some real time data, it will be fed into the models and we will get a better picture of where Lee will go. This meteorologist stated that if the storm track didn't change from the current track after the data was fed in that he felt pretty certain that Lee would be headed out to sea.
Click to expand...
I would think it’s just as important if not more so to get good recon info up stream. Ultimately it’s the timing of the trough and positioning of the ridge that’s going to determine where it goes. It’s fairly strong agreement that it’s going to be a monster of a storm for a time.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top