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Tropical Hurricane Lee

NoSnowATL said:
I get it but all i can do is go with what I see. IF I was in NC i would want it to come close too .
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What you see currently would be a better response in my humble opinion! I’ve said it before, it’s a weather board and it’s probably the only thing worth discussing at the moment but it’s still 12-13 days out. Live by the individual op runs and you might be correct but a lot can change! I also don’t get why you would want to see destruction as modeled currently?
 
jeremyt said:
This GFS run should be well OTS. 939 at 126!
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Out to 210 the pressure has risen to 958 and it looks like it’s starting to bend back west some. Should still end up turning N and NE though in the next couple frames
 
Chazwin said:
Out to 210 the pressure has risen to 958 and it looks like it’s starting to bend back west some. Should still end up turning N and NE though in the next couple frames
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Yeah I was premature on that going off of past runs and the current frame! Learning everyday!
 
Ends up scraping the New England coast before a landfall in New Brunswick. Still that was a fairly big shift to the west.
 
Chazwin said:
Ends up scraping the New England coast before a landfall in New Brunswick. Still that was a fairly big shift to the west.
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Is it a full recurve or a sce ario where it gets dropped off long enough to turn back west and threaten New England as depicted in the gfs is still a big question.
 
The barrage of troughs on the EC will make any forecast at this lead problematic but they are likely to at least bias the track N-NE. That said the fact that we don't get a big full latitude trough at least leaves the stair step getting left behind then hitting the US scenario as a possibility that's lower on the probability scale. I think the better chance of a US landfall might actually be the NE
 
Ukmet at 12z.
500hv.conus.png
 
12 z UKmet is lot futher sw and slower than gfs and can, about to miss trough looks like. I cant go out any futher on pivotal
 
Shaggy said:
Is it a full recurve or a sce ario where it gets dropped off long enough to turn back west and threaten New England as depicted in the gfs is still a big question.
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The 12z icon is the first model run so far that gets my attention with this. It really slows down between 144 and 180. If it stalls near the Bahamas it changes the game pretty drastically since we open the window for some Atlantic ridge flex between troughs and you get into a Dorian like situation where it can renew its NW movement toward the SE coast but even then this may be too far E that even a renewed WNW to NW track wouldn't be enough to beat the trough to the SE US coast
 
SD said:
The 12z icon is the first model run so far that gets my attention with this. It really slows down between 144 and 180. If it stalls near the Bahamas it changes the game pretty drastically since we open the window for some Atlantic ridge flex between troughs and you get into a Dorian like situation where it can renew its NW movement toward the SE coast but even then this may be too far E that even a renewed WNW to NW track wouldn't be enough to beat the trough to the SE US coast
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I believe Irene also had a slow down near the Bahamas then a steady NNW movement but that's been a while and my memory may be off
 
Shaggy said:
I believe Irene also had a slow down near the Bahamas then a steady NNW movement but that's been a while and my memory may be off
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As much as the gfs and others have improved over the last few years when the escape hatch on a hurricane comes down to the 500mb pattern across the US and north Atlantic I'm going to lean towards the euro/eps until they are proven wrong. You can see the 12z gefs already recurving well east and the only run to run trend is really south not west
 
SD said:
As much as the gfs and others have improved over the last few years when the escape hatch on a hurricane comes down to the 500mb pattern across the US and north Atlantic I'm going to lean towards the euro/eps until they are proven wrong. You can see the 12z gefs already recurving well east and the only run to run trend is really south not west
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I Always keep a watchful eye on the ukmet and have learned to never discount that one either. It's performance with both Irma and Florence was pretty good even though it was seen as an outlier to both originally.

Also the predicted strength of Lee screams recurve as it will want to go poleward versus a weaker system
 
Definitely a westward shift on the Euro, still misses the EC for the most part although the NE might still be in play. Slows it down before the turn n/nw also. Still long ways to go with this one

ec-fast_z500_mslp_eus_11.png
 
the Bahama stall is nothing new, seems the big nasty storms dont like to turn fast down that far south.....any kind of stall could be trouble.....but only if the ridging is stout enough to push the storm back NW, alot of times they will linger or move real slow and wait for the next trough.
 
KyloG said:
Yesterday there was a trough in SE Canada...today a stout ridge. ?‍♂️

View attachment 136835
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Storm still seems too far north at that point. It is highly unlikely to proceed west or wnw from that position. It really needs to be farther to the south at that time.
 
Rain Cold said:
Storm still seems too far north at that point. It is highly unlikely to proceed west or wnw from that position. It really needs to be farther to the south at that time.
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Yeah for me to really believe a legit US threat I'm gonna say it needs to run closer to PR this weekend... If it's way north like forecast now forget it. Also the overwhelming majority of the ensembles are still clearly OTS

You have to remember that most storms in this area recurve. It takes a perfect setup to get a hit. Something is gonna have to change from the current track
 
KyloG said:
Good point... Fran/Flo were north of the Caribbean but not that far north.

View attachment 136838View attachment 136839
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Actually I just looked, Fran was a little further further north of the Caribbean and Florence was a lot further north when compared to what the 12z GFS and the 12z UKMET showed. Florence never even threatened the Virgin Islands it was moving so far north… it looked at that point like it would go east of Bermuda.
 
Chazwin said:
Actually I just looked, Fran was a little further further north of the Caribbean and Florence was a lot further north when compared to what the 12z GFS and the 12z UKMET showed. Florence never even threatened the Virgin Islands it was moving so far north… it looked at that point like it would go east of Bermuda.
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Dont forget isabel
 
Brent said:
Yeah for me to really believe a legit US threat I'm gonna say it needs to run closer to PR this weekend... If it's way north like forecast now forget it. Also the overwhelming majority of the ensembles are still clearly OTS

You have to remember that most storms in this area recurve. It takes a perfect setup to get a hit. Something is gonna have to change from the current track
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The one thing that gives me a little pause is seeing where the 12Z UKMET positions the storm at the end of its run. That’s been the model that has often caught onto the storms out there taking a more westerly track the last few years… Irma and Florence are a couple of examples.
 
The big difference on the euro is the low east of LEE. At 12z they may be interacting. last night the low was far NE

Last night
ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_watl_59.png



today
ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_watl_57.png
 
Obviously most of the EPS members are OTS but did notice a small clustering of members that are slowing it down now with less pronounced northward turn (at least a slower turn anyway)

1693943817073.png
 
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