• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Lee

Absolutely incredible setup on the GFS wow. I mean this is inside 5 days

Also it's a bit east of last run... More towards Bermuda
gfs_ir_watl_20.png
 
Got this pic from another forum ans thought it was worth mentioning that short term motions can effect track and model confidence.
 

Attachments

  • F5-Or03-Rb0-AAc-I2-D.jpg
    F5-Or03-Rb0-AAc-I2-D.jpg
    79.6 KB · Views: 47
Appears to be still hampered by some easterly shear as the center is on the east side of convection, this will probably temper development and *could* keep it on a more westerly track short term. Still everything screams trough city and kick ots
 
The NAVGEM has a ridge that follows it to the north keeping it headed west.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
BHS1975 said:
The NAVGEM has a ridge that follows it to the north keeping it headed west.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Yeah it’s basically turns due west when it gets just north of the Virgin Islans. It also is weaker solution with the pressure only 995mb at the end of the run.
 
Model consensus at this time is showing a weakening to the north allowing it to turn well before landfall. I don't see any model showing a SC/NC hit as of now. Euro turns, ICON turns, GFS turns, CMC turns it, UK turns, Ensembles turns it. It can change for sure but as of now its not a threat and that's a good thing.
 
NoSnowATL said:
Model consensus at this time is showing a weakening to the north allowing it to turn well before landfall. I don't see any model showing a SC/NC hit as of now. Euro turns, ICON turns, GFS turns, CMC turns it, UK turns, Ensembles turns it. It can change for sure but as of now its not a threat and that's a good thing.
Click to expand...
Smart aleccy response here and I'm sorry but Fran, Floyd, Mathew, Irene, Bertha all "turned"
 
NoSnowATL said:
Model consensus at this time is showing a weakening to the north allowing it to turn well before landfall. I don't see any model showing a SC/NC hit as of now. Euro turns, ICON turns, GFS turns, CMC turns it, UK turns, Ensembles turns it. It can change for sure but as of now its not a threat and that's a good thing.
Click to expand...
For sure it does not look like a threat, but does not mean it isn't. Case study is Florence. I think about this time it was modeled a recurve, hell I think it even was said to do that just a few days before it hit.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top