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Tropical Hurricane Lee

20232500910-20232501440-GOES16-ABI-AL132023-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif
 
I had not paid much attention to path of the hurricane models until I read them mentioned in the latest NHC discussion, they are all south of most guidance (not that I expect much beyond that to change). Thought it interesting that the 06 runs of the hurricane models had Lee moving almost due west at end of their run (which is only out to 126) so still would curve beyond that
 
11 am discussion
Good grief....


Many of the models are calling for remarkable rates of intensification, beyond rates normally seen with model forecasts.
Both HAFS models forecast Lee to exceed 150 kt within the next 2 days, and even HCCA brings the hurricane above the category 5 threshold.

The NHC intensity forecast has been shifted significantly higher, but is actually within the guidance envelope. It should be stressed that internal dynamics (eyewall replacement cycles) will become a factor with the maximum strength of Lee as it becomes a major hurricane.

This is almost certain to lead to fluctuations in intensity that are
beyond our ability to forecast at these lead times.

Hurricane Hunteraircraft are scheduled to investigate Lee beginning this evening and overnight, which should provide extremely useful information about Lee's intensity during the coming days.
 
Just like 1995. We may get something yet though from the gulf like we did with Opal that year. The season may very well last longer than usual due to warm water temperatures.
Caribbean October. 1954 I believe Ms. Hazel. That's the jack in the box imo. Caribbean is at a broil. Need a fancy digging, neg trough to pull it up seaboard.

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Probably correct that at the 5 PM advisory.

Yeah. I'm thinking there will be a massive correction by 5PM. Dvorak Data-T estimates of 5.5 at 11:00am. Now up to 6.2 Raw T. This will be a category 4 by the time HH flies into the storm with pressures near 950Mb.


Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

Lee is rapidly intensifying. Early this morning, a well-defined
low-to mid-level eye was observed in microwave imagery, a signal
that is often a precursor rapid intensification (RI). Since then,
Lee has developed an eye in visible and infrared imagery, with
subjective Dvorak Data-T estimates quickly increasing to as high as
5.5 during the past hour or so. Satellite classifications supported
an intensity of around 80 kt at 1200 UTC, but given the significant
improvement in Lee's appearance since then, the advisory intensity
is set at 90 kt.
 
With the size the Wind field is projected to be its great that its looking like a miss
Just looking at the GFS, it’s still showing a 953mb as it’s moving over the southern tip of New Foundland close to St John’s. It would likely have a massive wind field by then.
 
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One issue I can already see from this EURO run is that it initializes the storm way too weak at 993mb. I think we can all look and agree right now that this is likely a major hurricane at this point.
 
Big difference on the trough over the GL at Hr 140 ish when comparing the euro/ukmet camp to the gfs. GFS to positive tilt
 
Really hope this stays out to sea. This is going to be a monster. I think we're seeing it becoming more and more the norm for these hurricanes to explode quickly in our current climate. Scary.

Agreed. I think we'll probably know by Saturday or Sunday if this truly stays out to sea. Only a few adjustments in the trough could taken Lee horrifyingly close to New England.
 
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 SEP 2023 Time : 191020 UTC
Lat : 16:39:35 N Lon : 50:53:23 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 957.7mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.8 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +18.4C Cloud Region Temp : -69.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING
 
Forecast now maxes out at 165 mph too this advisory. Have to see if the HAFS is right in 24 hours but I'm not sure a 200 mph storm will happen.

It's definitely gonna be hard in that area. Irma topped out at 180 in a similar spot. Dorian was 185 in the Bahamas. The others were 185-190 in the Caribbean or the Gulf
 
We now have Major Hurricane Lee! Max winds 130MPH.

980
WTNT33 KNHC 072051
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

...LEE NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...RIP CURRENTS AND HAZARDOUS SURF WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN FRIDAY AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE MAINLAND U.S. BY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 51.3W
ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES
 
probably still goes ots but emergency management personnel from about Connecticut-eastward have reason to be absolutely terrified; 12 foot surge going up providence bay is a real thing on the table
 
probably still goes ots but emergency management personnel from about Connecticut-eastward have reason to be absolutely terrified; 12 foot surge going up providence bay is a real thing on the table

NHC did put this at the end of the discussion

There is uncertainty in any northward turn of Lee beginning early
next week, but it is too soon to speculate about specific potential
impacts a week or more out.
 
NHC did put this at the end of the discussion

There is uncertainty in any northward turn of Lee beginning early
next week, but it is too soon to speculate about specific potential
impacts a week or more out.
I think it turning north is a given based on modeling right now. The big question is how long will Margot block it from being able to turn east any. The EURO has it blocking off until it’s too late and we see go very close to Cape Cod and then up into Maine.
 
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