NHC officially forecasting a Cat 5 storm
NHC has definitely over-estimated Lee's pressure. This ain't a 983Mb storm. It's likely around 966-974Mbs at this point. It looks amazing at this point.
Caribbean October. 1954 I believe Ms. Hazel. That's the jack in the box imo. Caribbean is at a broil. Need a fancy digging, neg trough to pull it up seaboard.Just like 1995. We may get something yet though from the gulf like we did with Opal that year. The season may very well last longer than usual due to warm water temperatures.
Probably correct that at the 5 PM advisory.
With the size the Wind field is projected to be its great that its looking like a missCertainly looking more and more likely OTS but should be a fun one to watch
Just looking at the GFS, it’s still showing a 953mb as it’s moving over the southern tip of New Foundland close to St John’s. It would likely have a massive wind field by then.With the size the Wind field is projected to be its great that its looking like a miss
Really hope this stays out to sea. This is going to be a monster. I think we're seeing it becoming more and more the norm for these hurricanes to explode quickly in our current climate. Scary.
Too close for comfort for New England and Canada.
Too close for comfort for New England and Canada.
Forecast now maxes out at 165 mph too this advisory. Have to see if the HAFS is right in 24 hours but I'm not sure a 200 mph storm will happen.Cat 4 and becoming stunning on satellite. Recon will be there in a couple hours View attachment 136900
Should be some good surfing on the OBXEuro 12z today another bit west of last night
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last night
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Forecast now maxes out at 165 mph too this advisory. Have to see if the HAFS is right in 24 hours but I'm not sure a 200 mph storm will happen.
probably still goes ots but emergency management personnel from about Connecticut-eastward have reason to be absolutely terrified; 12 foot surge going up providence bay is a real thing on the table
I think it turning north is a given based on modeling right now. The big question is how long will Margot block it from being able to turn east any. The EURO has it blocking off until it’s too late and we see go very close to Cape Cod and then up into Maine.NHC did put this at the end of the discussion
There is uncertainty in any northward turn of Lee beginning early
next week, but it is too soon to speculate about specific potential
impacts a week or more out.