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Tropical Hurricane Lee

I notice those ukmet tracks are coming further north as their intensity guidance goes up...

the straggler ensemble members that are far west are probably wrong on the intensity of the storm
 
Shawn said:
I notice those ukmet tracks are coming further north as their intensity guidance goes up...

the straggler ensemble members that are far west are probably wrong on the intensity of the storm
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true,but if you look at 5h across can/us border, even back into sw us, energy is different looking. May,may not mean anything. Little wrinkles add up 5 days plus out. Lot of pieces to the jiggsaw puzzle before we get final picture. Could as easily wind up more east verse more west for all we know.
 
Chazwin said:
and none of those were right on how far south it would go
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The biggest issue here is while models may be better they still have the same issues with resolving the speed and strength of waves in the northern stream they had several years ago. If that wave over the SE on the Euro slows and shifts west, which happens nearly every time; the effects of track could be enormous. That all said, a phantom under modeled wave out of the north could do the same in the other direction.
 
Irma(and Florence even...) also dove south of the track a lot which is something to watch for.. so far Lee hasn't but it's so far out still. I still lean heavily on the recurve side(I mean for starters I have highs in the 70s next week... A total pattern change from the last month) but we are talking day 9-10 and errors can be large

I would definitely wait to see more runs to see if the west trends continue because it could easily flip back east by morning
 
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Holy moly…. Some differences obviously, but too close for comfort. How far north Lee gets may have huge implications.

Edit: Orientation of the northern trough will be a big factor as well. The more negative tilt means greater ridge pump.

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About 30 miles south of 18z on ICON

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What is the Korean saying today?

The GFS and Euro are just trough after trough as cyclones approach. Looks like they were a week or two too late.
 
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Stevo24 said:
We always sit and debate, but these hurricane models are almost always right. It will do exactly what they say it will do, curve out to sea.
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I think this is a situation where we have to remember that the entire USA is not the Southeast. Mid-Atlantic into the NE area is still in play. The odds they are so far off this thing plows into FL, SC, or most of NC is pretty low at this point.
 
Stevo24 said:
We always sit and debate, but these hurricane models are almost always right. It will do exactly what they say it will do, curve out to sea.
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Well here we have it, time to shut down the forum I guess or just regulate the posts to whining about lack of rain or heat.
 
EPS stabilized overnight with all members turning north and missing the EC south of NE. NE, especially Maine and SE Canada seem to be the point now but that's 10 days away, could still turn and miss everyone (except Bermuda). If there were to be any threat to anyone else along EC you'd see more uncertainty in track guidance today, not writing it off but highly doubt it
 
Stevo24 said:
We always sit and debate, but these hurricane models are almost always right. It will do exactly what they say it will do, curve out to sea.
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Just like 1995. We may get something yet though from the gulf like we did with Opal that year. The season may very well last longer than usual due to warm water temperatures.
 
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Shawn said:
I think this is a situation where we have to remember that the entire USA is not the Southeast. Mid-Atlantic into the NE area is still in play. The odds they are so far off this thing plows into FL, SC, or most of NC is pretty low at this point.
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That's true and they may have a big problem in about 7-10 days. More likely in Canada though. It is early yet but we may be done here in the southeast from the long track Atlantic storms unless one can get into the Carribean. The gulf is another story entirely and it is very possible that something forms there and comes in. ALL of us are still in play for tropical weather for a while, probably until late November.
 
JHS said:
That's true and they may have a big problem in about 7-10 days. More likely in Canada though. It is early yet but we may be done here in the southeast from the long track Atlantic storms unless one can get into the Carribean. The gulf is another story entirely and it is very possible that something forms there and comes in. ALL of us are still in play for tropical weather for a while, probably until late November.
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Until late November lol. Most of the US doesn't have to worry about the tropics after Mid October, unless you're in South Florida. At least that's the way it seems to be in most years.
 
JHS said:
That's true and they may have a big problem in about 7-10 days. More likely in Canada though. It is early yet but we may be done here in the southeast from the long track Atlantic storms unless one can get into the Carribean. The gulf is another story entirely and it is very possible that something forms there and comes in. ALL of us are still in play for tropical weather for a while, probably until late November.
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I doubt we see anything deep into November in Gulf. Storms have a harder time holding together as sheer increases when the STJ becomes more active. I do think that development in the Western Caribbean and Gulf is definitely a strong possibility the rest of September and the first half of October.
 
Chazwin said:
I doubt we see anything deep into November in Gulf. Storms have a harder time holding together as sheer increases when the STJ becomes more active. I do think that development in the Western Caribbean and Gulf is definitely a strong possibility the rest of September and the first half of October.
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To me it looks like Idalia did a good job of lowering the SST's in the eastern gulf at least.
 
EmersonGA said:
To me it looks like Idalia did a good job of lowering the SST's in the eastern gulf at least.
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Yes and with Franklin and Idalia last week and now Lee, the western Atlantic will be churned up good as well to help lower SSTs there.
 
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