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Tropical Hurricane Ian

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Consensus from the Hurricane models.
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Yes… the hurricane models are more favoring the HHI to Charleston area and to be honest UK is the only that is gone much further north than that with a landfall at Myrtle Beach. The NAM and Icon are basically in the middle
 
lexxnchloe said:
Is it possible it can ride the convergence line out to sea and miss a 2nd landfall?
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I learn to never dismiss any possibility, but that being said there’s not really any guidance that does that now. The trough is pulling away without grabbing Ian to take with it, so it’s gonna follow what steering there is, which is weak, but show an emergence into the Atlantic with a turn back to the NW
 
Chazwin said:
Yes… the hurricane models are more favoring the HHI to Charleston area and to be honest UK is the only that is gone much further north than that with a landfall at Myrtle Beach. The NAM and Icon are basically in the middle
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Yep, here is the 12Z recap for 2nd LF:

Euro - 980 into HHI
GFS - 986 into HHI
CMC - 987 between HHI and Edisto
ICON - 974 between Charleston and Edisto
NAM - 973 just north of Charleston
UK - Into the North Myrtle/Calabash area
 
BullCityWx said:
I think euro is gonna keep going north and the northern camp will head a bit south and it'll be somewhere between Kiawah and Edisto. I still weigh the modelling that took this out into the atlantic more than the others as well but thats just me.
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Tomorrow morning ar 12z should give us a pretty good idea of what we are going to get. Uk is already offshore models-2022092812-f024.sfcwind_mslp.us_se.gif
 
5216A931-F92A-465F-9D96-F8AA1212FD59.jpegJust got this photo from my aunt/uncle’s place in Ft Myers/Naples. Looks like water is at least 6-8 ft high below. They do live right on the water. Fortunately, their condo is on the fourth floor. They aren’t there now but have a webcam installed.
 
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It has made landfall.


...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IAN MAKES LANDFALL IN
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicates that the eye of Ian made
landfall along the southwestern coast of Florida near Cayo Costa
around 305 PM EDT (1905 UTC). Data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Ian's maximum sustained winds
were estimated to be near 150 mph (240 km/h). The latest minimum
central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data is 940 mb
(27.75 inches).


SUMMARY OF 310 PM EDT...1910 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 82.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WNW OF FT MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.75 INCHES
 
Snowfan said:
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That is just off the beach on Fort Myers Beach, FL

26.452184,-81.949336

I'm not surprised, really. Some of those houses are not up to hurricane codes. Single story on a crawl space. Probably grandfathered in. The problem is when they come apart, they damage structures that can withstand the winds and rising water. The is probably shot from a balcony on the Batiki West Condominiums.
 
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