Tropical Hurricane Ian

[Zander98al]

That was the 12z gefs here is the 18z for comparison

View attachment 122091

Good grief there's still projections into Louisiana ?

 

[Henry2326]

I don’t really see any movement to the east compared to 18z… maybe the western plots have tightened up a bit to narrow the cone, but the eastern plots haven’t really moved all day. I think you’ll see the NHC stay pretty close to the previous forecast tracks at the 11pm update

TVCN/X moved to Tampa.

 

[Arcc]

Textbook look of a strengthening storm. Hot towers should continue to rotate around the developing eyewall.

 

[KyloG]

18z EPS…many members don’t break sub 980. ?‍

 

[Chazwin]

TVCN/X moved to Tampa.

View attachment 122093
View attachment 122094

I understand that, but keep in mind that basically a 30-40 mile shift to the east of one plot. Now of course that 30-40 miles makes much more significant difference when it comes to landfall point, but the overall look of the plots remains fairly consistent to recent runs and it matches up well with the NHC forecast track and cone. Again, the NHC has been outstanding with forecasting landfall points the last few years and I expect that to continue.

 

[DadOfJax]

That was the 12z gefs here is the 18z for comparison

View attachment 122091

Those west tracks though!!

 

[Ethan80963]

 

[Henry2326]

I understand that, but keep in mind that basically a 30-40 mile shift to the east of one plot. Now of course that 30-40 miles makes much more significant difference when it comes to landfall point, but the overall look of the plots remains fairly consistent to recent runs and it matches up well with the NHC forecast track and cone. Again, the NHC has been outstanding with forecasting landfall points the last few years and I expect that to continue.

I believe they follow the TVCN/X....

 

[WeatherNC]

 

[Chazwin]

I believe they follow the TVCN/X....

They absolutely do, but they also follow all the plots you see and use a blend depending on the support they have. Either way, it appears over the last 4 model cycles that a hit on the western Panhandle is looking less and less likely

 

[accu35]

View attachment 122097

Is that the Yucatán to the left there?

 

[lizajane]

I believe so. And that's Cuba to the north.

 

[Psalm 148:8]

That was the 12z gefs here is the 18z for comparison

View attachment 122091

?‍ That looks like a kid colored all over it!

 

[Taylor C]

This storm's track looks very wobbly on the models.

 

[lizajane]

View attachment 122097

Oh wow! I just realized where the picture was from.

 

[WeatherNC]

Oh wow! I just realized where the picture was from.

Yep, finally starting to get his act together.

Interactive Weather Satellite Imagery Viewers from NASA Earth Science Office

weather.msfc.nasa.gov

 

[Brick Tamland]

 

[Brent]

Track is way more east. This is increasingly looking like a big problem for Tampa

 

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like college football around here will be interesting Saturday.

 

[Snowfan]