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Tropical Hurricane Ian

- I'd put the over/under at 976.5 for pressure at 8 am tomorrow. as others have said this is taking off. in retrospect i probably went through too much handwringing about organization/strength in the short term when the hwrf i think generally had the right timeline with this delayed payoff for a while

- the major rolling into tampa bay is a nightmare. it's on a shortlist of worst case hurricane scenarios, like new orleans levees being topped and houston's petrochemical industry being shut down/contaminating galveston bay. even a more westward track will likely bring serious surge into tampa. not ideal.

- one forecasting thing i'm a little hung up on is how far the front pushes, i'm not sold that the models have that figured out (see: years of watching the models get juked by arctic air masses and them ending up north and west of expected position) and i wouldn't be surprised if the area where ian can thrive in, or at least maintain some decent strength, extends further north than the models currently show.
 
Western Cuba looks like it’s going to take a pretty hard hit as it strengthens up to landfall. After landfall, the mountainous terrain in the forecast path could cause a center jog and disrupt the core.
 
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I agree. This thing is getting it’s act together.
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Almost all modeling has the trough lifting out, steering currents collapsing and Ian crawling along the Fl coast before the Atl ridge builds and kicks it N/NW inland. Still looks to be weakening at LF, which prob somewhere from Tampa to big bend area. ICON absolute outlier, determined the trough pulls it across Fl before slowing and turning NNW for 2nd LF around SC (it sucks we toss)

Also, it's starting to get that look this morning, probably put on a show today
 
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The GFS looks to finally be mostly rid of that dry slot on the 6z run. Looks like the east trend may be over for now.
 
metwannabe said:
Almost all modeling has the trough lifting out, stirring currents collapsing and Ian crawling along the Fl coast before the Atl ridge builds and kicks it N/NW inland. Still looks to be weakening at LF, which prob somewhere from Tampa to big bend area. ICON absolute outlier, determined the trough pulls it across Fl before slowing and turning NNW for 2nd LF around SC (it sucks we toss)

Also, it's starting to get that look this morning, probably put on a show today
Click to expand...
That IR is smoking this morning. Sub-900mb or bust.
 
Major right up to the bay....NHC is all over the TVCN/X track....

5 am
It should again be stressed that there is still significant uncertainty in the trackof Ian, especially in the 3-5 day time frame, and users should not focus on the details of the track forecast at longer time ranges.
(IMO....still not sure if is gonna pop out the east side of FL for an East coast run. See EGRI in spaghetti model....continues to push East).

AL092022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind (5).png


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 18.2N 82.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 19.7N 83.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 21.7N 83.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 23.6N 84.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 25.3N 84.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 26.7N 83.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 27.7N 83.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 29.2N 83.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 32.0N 82.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

09L_intensity_latest (11).png

09L_tracks_latest (10).png
 
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