I’m gonna take the blend of the models with a lean to the Euro camp and go a bit north of there near Cedar Key… though that can obviously change. That’s still gonna put Tampa in danger of a major storm surge, even from weakening storm as winds would be pushing water straight up the Bay for 12 hours or more.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Tropical Hurricane Ian
- Thread starter severestorm
- Start date
-
- Tags
- tropical
60 mph and 991 mb.
Henry2326
Member
And it begins.....
Henry2326
Member
18z ICON......wow.....and doesn't look like ots.
957 at Tampa.
957 at Tampa.
It’s definitely getting that look now. I had a feeling Friday that it would take until sometime this afternoon or this evening to really start to see it get going… now that it looks like it is, it should be off to the races
This thing is not gonna cross Florida and come out the other side. It’s just not going to happen.
packfan98
Moderator
Looks to have a similar movement as the 18z gfs. Maybe the cone is really narrowing?
LickWx
Member
Why?
NoSnowATL
Member
BHS1975
Member
Covection still collapsing from dry air.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Henry2326
Member
00z.....east is the word.
NoSnowATL
Member
In fairness the ICON is a bit on its on island with that now. Even though a few EPS members still do it, more now are actually west of the mean. Of course two days ago the ICON was having it cross FL then become a fish storm, so slowly but surely it’s coming into line with others
SnowwxAtl
Member
This is old? Right?
NoSnowATL
Member
About 15 mins
Notice by landfall on all model sets there show somewhat significant weakening ..major hurricane to high end cat 1
I don’t really see any movement to the east compared to 18z… maybe the western plots have tightened up a bit to narrow the cone, but the eastern plots haven’t really moved all day. I think you’ll see the NHC stay pretty close to the previous forecast tracks at the 11pm update
Hurricane watches up from Venice to Panama City best guess with the 9/26 morning package.
One thing to remember though is that even with the weakening, this still would create a significant to major storm surge. Tampa for instance, would see wind coming straight up the bay for at least 12 hours