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Tropical Hurricane Ian

Henry2326 said:
I'm feeling it...."east"
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NHC usually plays it close to the TVCN/X so I could see them shifting east a smidge with landfall near Crystal River FL at 5pm, and dialing back on intensity. In 120hrs, we are going to have a 1030mb HP centered in central NY State, not buying solutions that take Ian straight up in to it. Steering currents should break down for him somewhere in the vicinity of N FL / C GA, before an exit just west of the Apps. I'm a little east for landfall and little west for exit, I think the 12Z Euro at the upper levels did a very nice job, including handling of the hybrid CAD.
 
Those tracks are close again to taking Ian out to sea once it crosses Florida before hitting eastern North Carolina. This storm has definitely moved east again as far as the forecast tracks and models. I feel like I'm watching windshield wipers going back and forth on a windshield trying to keep up with these forecast changes.
 
205917_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 16.2N 80.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 17.3N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 19.2N 82.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 21.1N 83.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 23.0N 84.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 24.8N 84.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 26.2N 84.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 28.3N 84.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 31.0N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
 
My money is right where the NHC has the center in the big bend. Just makes sense with the strengthening western ridge and the trof's speed/axis at this point. I mean, technically Mid FL around Tampa Bay and inland is still in the crosshairs too. But somewhere in that zone from there and the big bend is happening at this point.

These NHC guys are smart as hell and have so much experience/tools for this type of thing.

Edit: and the big bend area is almost the best for all of us who don't care for the severe aspects. tons of shear and rapid weakening into a strung out mess into a colder air mass causing rain to completely blossom. I wouldn't worry about a dry slot at this point.. but yeah a ton of dry air does look to get ingested into the storm's center... which helps weaken it thankfully also
 
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Shawn said:
My money is right where the NHC has the center in the big bend. Just makes sense with the strengthening western ridge and the trof's speed/axis at this point. I mean, technically Mid FL around Tampa Bay and inland is still in the crosshairs too. But somewhere in that zone from there and the big bend is happening at this point.

These NHC guys are smart as hell and have so much experience/tools for this type of thing.

Edit: and the big bend area is almost the best for all of us who don't care for the severe aspects. tons of shear and rapid weakening into a strung out mess into a colder air mass causing rain to completely blossom. I wouldn't worry about a dry slot at this point.. but yeah a ton of dry air does look to get ingested into the storm's center... which helps weaken it thankfully also
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Absolutely… the NHC has done a great job the last few years of forecasting landfall locations. There’s been a number of storms that they were within 30 miles 5 days out
 
GFS definitely further east but is still heading straight for the big bend of Florida. To me that has the best bet of LF as of right now
 
GFS returns are so trash man. It’s a shame it has this much of an issue painting a true reflectivity outside of 3 days.
 
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