Tropical Hurricane Ian

[iGRXY]

look how much the short term models have shifted east to a near or over western cuba landfall now.
All because its been a difficult process in tracking what is struggling to be tracked
00z tracks vs 12z. look at the short term differences.
View attachment 122048View attachment 122049

Doubt the little bit of land interaction it sees does much at this point either way. Regardless they end up roughly about the same with an eastern panhandle LF 75% of the runs. Hopefully we do see significant weakening as it approaches though but these last few years that just hasn’t happened.

 

[deltadog03]

GFS now going to make landfall over western cuba on this run so far.

 

[Henry2326]

Tad bit east.

 

[Arcc]

Tad bit east.

View attachment 122050

Yep, trend is undeniable. So, the GFS is west, then east, then west and now it’s east again.

 

[DadOfJax]

View attachment 122043

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 15.2N 79.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 16.5N 81.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 18.1N 82.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 20.1N 83.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 22.0N 84.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 23.9N 84.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 25.5N 84.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 28.0N 84.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 30.3N 83.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

View attachment 122044

View attachment 122045

Continuing the west trend

 

[Stormsfury]

One thing not talked about right now is the amount of arcus clouds (outflow boundaries busting out in the outer bands especially eastern and southeastern side) which obviously means some dry air infiltration has been one of the factors here.

However, look at roughly 15.3°N, 79.8°W... looking like a very tight circulation is about to take center stage..

 

[Stormsfury]

Continuing the west trend

Just adjustments and leaning with the NBM and Supercomputer consensus. Really right down the middle and about the best track prediction ATT given the consensus. (Not to mention the GFS back east again heading towards the consensus)

 

[deltadog03]

as others have said...from 00z to 12z gfs did go east a bit. we shall see if that continues or go back and forth more
00z vs 12z

 

[Henry2326]

Goodness.....what an east move.
NHC appears brilliant.

 

[KyloG]

Wedge is impressive....foreshadowing of upcoming winter

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Wedge is impressive....foreshadowing of upcoming winterView attachment 122056View attachment 122055

20 degrees below normal for a wedge in the winter would be winter storm


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[JHS]

GFS still showing a major dry slot for many in the Carolinas. We really need the CAD to not be here for this if you want a lot of rain from it.

 

[Rain Cold]

GFS still showing a major dry slot for many in the Carolinas. We really need the CAD to not be here for this if you want a lot of rain from it.

We get plenty of rain with CADs in the winter.

 

[iGRXY]

GFS still showing a major dry slot for many in the Carolinas. We really need the CAD to not be here for this if you want a lot of rain from it.

CAD dome helps with moisture and GFS is struggling with coverage and overall QPF output.

 

[KyloG]

For NC it's about 48 hours of steady rain with the GFS track...big if, but would be cool/rainy for a couple of days. Good football watching weather next weekend if true.

 

[Broken024]

Wedge is impressive....foreshadowing of upcoming winterView attachment 122056View attachment 122055

Wilkes onset ice?

 

[Shaggy]

We get plenty of rain with CADs in the winter.

More concerning questions would be if there is a wedge front centered over central NC with an approaching tropical system could that increase a tornado threat?

 

[Chazwin]

GFS still showing a major dry slot for many in the Carolinas. We really need the CAD to not be here for this if you want a lot of rain from it.

The CAD helps the with rainfall chances. You got to stop taking the QPF output on the GFS verbatim outside of 3 days or so… it’s having major issues with convective feedback like it always does

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Rain Cold]

More concerning questions would be if there is a wedge front centered over central NC with an approaching tropical system could that increase a tornado threat?

For sure.