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Tropical Hurricane Ian

I don't if right, but I kind of disagree with the NHC analysis that the 500Mb Vorticity is NW of the LLC. The culprit behind disorganization is another 500Mb vorticity that came off Cuba and stretched towards the deep red 500Mb Low that was trailing the 925-700Mb vorticity. I knew that thing was no good. It seemed to create wind sheer that disturbed the LLC as it was trying develop Thunderstorms via vertical sheer. I saw this system stack, and it was trying to put up hot towers around the LLC, but it just couldn't get the ring look due to competing convective complexes. I also noticed some directional sheer heading towards varying directions, but I did really make much of due to the steering map showing relatively low speed. All this happening when Ian was undergoing a vulnerable state of development in which horizontally-induced convection dissipated so vertically-induced convection could develop.

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so just looking at the 6z EURO, and again can't totally do apples to apples because the HWRF is ran at higher res I believe...but anyway, the 6z EURO doesn't get Ian below 1000mb until around 12z MON! It is def EAST of the HWRF as well, and the HWRF has it going below that as of now. (and keeps its under going forward) How it all plays out I don't know, but this thing looks messy still.
 
One thing models at least agree on is a secondary precip max well NE of Ian over the cold dome. This is good news for those in need of rain. Question is will this turn into a flood threat
 
Still sticking with my forecast from 3 days ago…gap shooter, trough misser, northern gulf coast landfall. I also don’t think we see nearly as much destruction of the storm at the coast, especially if it continues to slow down. The cold front will be retreating by that time. I’m going Cat2 landfall around PCB.
 
6z HMON/HWRF fwiw it was west. HMON was also very weak at landfall
 
Brick Tamland said:
GFS looks way west of the other models and the NHC forecasted track. Also looks like we still don't know if it will stay inland when it makes landfall or go out to sea and possibly back into NC.
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Two things on this… first the GFS is not considerably west of the NHC forecast track, anymore than the Euro is considerably east. The GFS has corrected back to the east some in the last couple runs while the Euro/EPS has come back west. That’s why it’s a pretty good idea to take the the middle which is what the NHC has done. Secondly, while some EPS members still take the center out over the Atlantic and then hook it back NW into the Carolinas, there a lot fewer than it was a couple days ago… remember that solution requires a very deep and sharp trough which is something the models have trended away from in the last couple days
 
AL092022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind (4).png

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 15.2N 79.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 16.5N 81.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 18.1N 82.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 20.1N 83.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 22.0N 84.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 23.9N 84.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 25.5N 84.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 28.0N 84.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 30.3N 83.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

09L_tracks_latest (7).png

09L_intensity_latest (8).png
 
Yesterday it looked like Ian might be a Apps runner once it made landfall and came inland. This morning it looks like people in the central portions of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina might want to check their flood insurance if they have a policy and start building that ark in the front yard. There is still a ways to go and nothing is written in stone yet. Until a center of circulation consolidates there will be a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast track and strength.
 
look how much the short term models have shifted east to a near or over western cuba landfall now.
All because its been a difficult process in tracking what is struggling to be tracked
00z tracks vs 12z. look at the short term differences.
0z tracks.png12z tracks.png
 
Oddly enough, I think the Canadian has the best overall track right now. It’s a good blend of the GFS and Euro with an eastern panhandle LF. This thing isn’t moving very fast either and if rushing starts to build over top, it’ll only slow it down more. Think the wind field will be pretty wide, especially once inland but likely nothing more than 20-30 mph winds up this way with gusts over 40. Biggest thing is I think we could really rack up on the rain with moisture coming from the Atlantic and gulf over a CAD dome and exiting trough. 3-6” seems to be a good bet with higher amounts likely.
 
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