Probably the best model agreement we’ve seen this whole time showing the big bend back NW. If it holds at 0Z I’d say it’s a pretty safe bet. Gonna be some rough mountain flooding and mudslides if it does come to fruition.
Climo would tend to make me agree, but the WAR is building and I don't think there is a whole lot of room for the system to move any further up the east coast.
Food for thought.....models are jumping into Atlantic at:
That is fair reasoning. Good writeup.
He has his moments ?
At that point though, the storm isn’t moving north or northeast… it’s turned back NW as steering switches. In fact both the Icon and UK were further north up the coastline earlier between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington, but both have now come noticeably further south close to Charleston.
One of those dang if you do, dang if you don’t. Imagine not saying anything and weekend plans getting ruined by rain.
What are you looking at?? If anything the models today have trended more towards that NW turn. Believe me, I didn’t buy into at first, but it’s very noticeable that the trough is moving too quickly to just grab the storm and continue pulling it NE. GSP mentioned it in there discussion. Without the trough to pull it away, the steering weakens and what steering is there would pull the storm back NW
There’s a slightly large series this weekend at the corner of I-75 and I-285 that a lot of people in that area are hoping for no washout.
I mean they have to make a decision for that series before the series starts, so they could move the games away from Atlanta and Atlanta end up getting no rain.
That’s fair. I think the biggest thing I’m looking at is the steering that is there when the storm exits Florida. Like I was saying with the trough moving too quickly grab the storm and with a weaker storm at that time, the little steering there is should pull the storm back NW. It’s important to note that a couple days ago, pretty much all the models, the ones going north into the panhandle to the ones crossing Florida, all had that bend back to the NNW to NW at some point, and all have kept it, even with the storm being more east.
Outside the eye, the south and east side are becoming a little empty on radar.
Is the forward speed expected to be much faster on a further eastern/southern track? Where is the storm currently located to what was expected in modeling? Not an argument but honest questions. I agree that the NW turn will occur but when and how far north?
Ft myers, Cape Coral, Port Charlotte area appear to be the areas that are going to get it the worst assuming Venice/Englewood stay in the cross hairs. A lot of comments I'm seeing on-line from people down to Naples weren't planning on leaving.
As the trough pulls away and has less effects on the steering, the forward speed would slow, and yes where that NW turn occurs is very important to where that east coast landfall would take place. Earlier models that had the storm out in the Atlantic were turning it later and bringing in a landfall between Myrtle Beach and Cape Fear. Now those have trended to an earlier turn and bringing it in between Savannah and Georgetown.
