Yeah the East trend Is real .. also noticed the Gfs initialized the storm south of 15N and the euro was right at 15N … makes a difference I believe. EPS is a heavily favored Florida hit somewhere around Tampa Bay.
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Tropical Hurricane Ian
- Thread starter severestorm
- Start date
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- Tags
- tropical
So that's right up the road from me and I've heard good things about it, never had any myself, but had no idea it was that expensive. Yeah let us know if that was worth it or not lol holy smoke!
Henry2326
Member
Henry2326
Member
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 14.9N 78.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 15.7N 80.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 17.3N 81.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 19.1N 83.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 21.0N 84.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 23.0N 84.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 24.8N 84.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 27.5N 84.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 29.8N 83.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
Last edited:
Henry2326
Member
Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022
Bands of deep convection have developed primarily over the
northern portion of Ian's circulation overnight, however data from
an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft show that the low- and
mid-level centers of the tropical storm have not yet become in
better alignment. The Air Force plane essentially performed a
low-level invest-like mission at about 2500 ft and found an
east-southeast to west-northwest elongated area of light
and variable winds that is located to the southeast of the mid-level
center seen in infrared satellite imagery. Given the time spent
searching for the low-level center, the aircraft did not fully
sample the northern portion of the circulation where the strongest
winds are likely located. Therefore, the initial intensity is held
at 45 kt, which is in line with the latest subjective and objective
satellite estimates. It should be noted that the advisory position
is a compromise between the low- and mid-level centers as it is
quite likely that a new low-level center will form closer to the
convection and the mid-level center very soon.
Due to the current lack of center definition, the initial motion
estimate is a somewhat uncertain 285/10 kt. The track forecast
philosophy remains unchanged, with Ian forecast to move around the
western periphery of a subtropical ridge located over the western
Atlantic. Ian is forecast to turn northwestward later today,
passing near or southwest of the Cayman Islands on Monday, and
approach western Cuba on Monday night or early Tuesday. While the
models agree on the overall scenario, there are still significant
differences regarding the exact track of the storm, especially
after 72 hours. Even with the addition of the NOAA G-IV synoptic
surveillance dropsonde data and additional upper-air balloon
releases across much of the United States, the spread in the
guidance has not narrowed from before. The UKMET and ECMWF models
continue to hold firm along the eastern side of the guidance and
show a track into west-central Florida, while the GFS and HWRF
remain one the western side, taking the Ian into the central or
western Florida panhandle. The updated NHC track continues to
split these differences and remains closest to the TVCA multi-model
consensus, and the latest GFS ensemble mean. The new track is very
similar to the previous advisory. With the cross-track spreading
remaining between 200-220 n mi at days 4 and 5, it cannot be
overstated that significant uncertainty remains in Ian's long-range
prediction. Another NOAA G-IV synoptic surveillance mission is
already underway collecting data around the storm which will
hopefully reduce some of the model spread.
Ian remains within an environment that appears quite conducive for
strengthening. Once the circulation become more vertically
coherent, low vertical wind shear conditions and high ocean heat
content are expected to allow for rapid intensification while Ian
moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The Deterministic to
Probabilistic Statistical Rapid Intensification Index (DTOPS) once
again calls for a 90 percent chance of rapid strengthening during
the following 48- and 72-hour forecast periods. The NHC intensity
forecast calls for rapid intensification to begin later today, and
forecasts Ian to be a major hurricane when it nears western
Cuba in about 48 hours. The latest official intensity forecast
shows a similar peak intensity around 72 h over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico as the previous advisory.
After that time, a significant increase in southwesterly shear is
predicted by the global models, and weakening is forecast to occur
while Ian approaches the Florida coast. Despite the reduction in
intensity, Ian is likely to have an expanding wind field and will be
slowing down by that time, which will have the potential to produce
significant wind and storm surge impacts. Users are urged
to not focus on specific forecast intensities in the 4- and 5-day
forecasts and instead focus on the potential hazards Ian may
produce across portions of Florida.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022
Bands of deep convection have developed primarily over the
northern portion of Ian's circulation overnight, however data from
an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft show that the low- and
mid-level centers of the tropical storm have not yet become in
better alignment. The Air Force plane essentially performed a
low-level invest-like mission at about 2500 ft and found an
east-southeast to west-northwest elongated area of light
and variable winds that is located to the southeast of the mid-level
center seen in infrared satellite imagery. Given the time spent
searching for the low-level center, the aircraft did not fully
sample the northern portion of the circulation where the strongest
winds are likely located. Therefore, the initial intensity is held
at 45 kt, which is in line with the latest subjective and objective
satellite estimates. It should be noted that the advisory position
is a compromise between the low- and mid-level centers as it is
quite likely that a new low-level center will form closer to the
convection and the mid-level center very soon.
Due to the current lack of center definition, the initial motion
estimate is a somewhat uncertain 285/10 kt. The track forecast
philosophy remains unchanged, with Ian forecast to move around the
western periphery of a subtropical ridge located over the western
Atlantic. Ian is forecast to turn northwestward later today,
passing near or southwest of the Cayman Islands on Monday, and
approach western Cuba on Monday night or early Tuesday. While the
models agree on the overall scenario, there are still significant
differences regarding the exact track of the storm, especially
after 72 hours. Even with the addition of the NOAA G-IV synoptic
surveillance dropsonde data and additional upper-air balloon
releases across much of the United States, the spread in the
guidance has not narrowed from before. The UKMET and ECMWF models
continue to hold firm along the eastern side of the guidance and
show a track into west-central Florida, while the GFS and HWRF
remain one the western side, taking the Ian into the central or
western Florida panhandle. The updated NHC track continues to
split these differences and remains closest to the TVCA multi-model
consensus, and the latest GFS ensemble mean. The new track is very
similar to the previous advisory. With the cross-track spreading
remaining between 200-220 n mi at days 4 and 5, it cannot be
overstated that significant uncertainty remains in Ian's long-range
prediction. Another NOAA G-IV synoptic surveillance mission is
already underway collecting data around the storm which will
hopefully reduce some of the model spread.
Ian remains within an environment that appears quite conducive for
strengthening. Once the circulation become more vertically
coherent, low vertical wind shear conditions and high ocean heat
content are expected to allow for rapid intensification while Ian
moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The Deterministic to
Probabilistic Statistical Rapid Intensification Index (DTOPS) once
again calls for a 90 percent chance of rapid strengthening during
the following 48- and 72-hour forecast periods. The NHC intensity
forecast calls for rapid intensification to begin later today, and
forecasts Ian to be a major hurricane when it nears western
Cuba in about 48 hours. The latest official intensity forecast
shows a similar peak intensity around 72 h over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico as the previous advisory.
After that time, a significant increase in southwesterly shear is
predicted by the global models, and weakening is forecast to occur
while Ian approaches the Florida coast. Despite the reduction in
intensity, Ian is likely to have an expanding wind field and will be
slowing down by that time, which will have the potential to produce
significant wind and storm surge impacts. Users are urged
to not focus on specific forecast intensities in the 4- and 5-day
forecasts and instead focus on the potential hazards Ian may
produce across portions of Florida.
All those synoptic flights and balloon launches didn't sway the Europeans at all. Idk seems we see this so many times, additional data and yet models still don't align, gonna be interesting because in this situation a 150 miles east at approach is far more serious problem. Also dang it looks rough this morning, fact is models gonna struggle until there is a definitive stacked center
Shaggy
Member
The fact we are still not tracking a well-defined center is surprising to me. Figure we have another 24 to 36 hours before models settle thus out
Looking at the cone from the NHC, it really is pretty narrow for a few days out, especially for a storm that is forecast to slow down forward speed as it approaches the coast. As you said though 150 miles difference east and west is a huge difference because of the location. I think the NHC is right to pretty much split the difference with a path going into the Big Bend area. Keep in mind we’re in the time frame now that the NHC has done absolutely great with forecast tracks over the last few years.
Eps pretty tight thru 120, then it's question marks but mean still east
Actually little surprised at number of eps members still come off east coast of FL and then come back for 2nd lf. Guess that's the least likely but not completely off the table yet either
weather bubba
Member
This storm has been taking its time establishing a well defined center and until this happens, it will be difficult for the models and meteorologists to get a definite idea on the track and potential impacts it might have in the eastern Gulf and points further north. Right now almost all bets are still on the table as far as intensity and where landfall will eventually occur. The NHC has been the most consistent so far and if I had to put my chips on the table I would go with their forecast.
06z ICON very euro like.
It appears recon has finally found a defined center. Weak sauce with no strong winds anywhere near the COC for now.
weather bubba
Member
Raleigh ain't the same city where Barney Fife stayed at the Y on the Andy Griffith Show anymore. The cost of living has skyrocketed in recent years due to the growth and influx of newcomers with big wallets. It's hard to believe that I used to know people who made their own inebriating beverages and now these local distilleries that have popped up everywhere like weeds on a lawn are charging that much for liquor.
NoSnowATL
Member
Yea the GFS is on a island. This girl is going east!
DadOfJax
Member
Nope
LickWx
Member
Why?
iGRXY
Member
This is simply not true lololol
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Came west of the 0Z ICON run.
NoSnowATL
Member
Shhhh…. Reverse psychology