Tropical Hurricane Ian

[WeatherNC]

SW shear seems to be starting to effect Ian from satellite images I am looking at

Vent is starting to take shape, very fine line, highly anomalous at this latitude in late Sept. Max exhaust valve is not for another ~60hrs.

 

[Henry2326]

The UK track from Charleston inland is quite familiar for many of us in the Carolinas. Of course this one wouldn’t be moving at 35mph.

And that track has been very consistent. Has been there several runs now before the others started moving east.

 

[SASQUATCH]

Look at those spinners…


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[SASQUATCH]

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[Snowfan]

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Brent]

The eastern shifts with this thing today have been nothing short of incredible. It's gonna be a long evening at the NHC

Also I agree some of these tornado cells are more like the classic ones

 

[Tornadocane]

Look at those spinners…


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First time in my life I ever experienced a real Tornado. I'm near Davie in Cooper. Craziest Winds that bent trees one way as it was coming from Miami Gardens, and the opposite way as it was leaving west of Davie. Shook the house a bit. My brother had a couple of trees fall in the backyard, and power went out.

The rain was also insane. The lack is overflowing into backyards, and this was the first time I've ever seen my streets flood.

Obviously, I've called all my friends already to tell them about it.

 

[Downeastnc]

00z Globals
A given of 2nd LF.
Somewhere between Savannah and Charleston.

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I would bet its more Charleston to Wilmington, the storm has consistently been well east of guidance....I foresee a few more east shifts in track for the NHC....

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

I would bet its more Charleston to Wilmington, the storm has consistently been well east of guidance....I foresee a few more east shifts in track for the NHC....

It’s gonna be a hard turn NW when it does make that second LF

 

[JHS]

18Z Euro second LF near or just south of Savannah, then rides NW on the SC/GA line.

This run is nasty for upstate SC as far as wind goes. Some gusts nearing 60 MPH.

 

[tramadoc]

I dont know about Soon usually it’ll take a little once eyewall replacement takes place to continue dropping but I do believe a run at CAT 5 is possible later in the night

Nah. Cat 4. Won’t see Cat 5. My opinion from what I’ve been reading.

 

[Zander98al]

First time in my life I ever experienced a real Tornado. I'm near Davie in Cooper. Craziest Winds that bent trees one way as it was coming from Miami Gardens, and the opposite way as it was leaving west of Davie. Shook the house a bit. My brother had a couple of trees fall in the backyard, and power went out.

The rain was also insane. The lack is overflowing into backyards, and this was the first time I've ever seen my streets flood.

Obviously, I've called all my friends already to tell them about it.

Glad your okay ?. It's pretty scary

 

[iGRXY]

Sarasota looks to be LF number 1. Model guidance is pretty locked in on a 2nd LF between Savannah and Charleston. I think Hilton Head is likely the spot. Outside of a model run here or there, there hasn’t been much consistent support for a LF north of Charleston at this point. That 2nd is key from how long it takes this sucker to cross Florida and just how strong it is at LF in Florida. Right now I think a 145-150 mph Cat 4 is a strong possibility and just how much can it hold itself together and is there any intensification once back out in the Atlantic

 

[Downeastnc]

It’s gonna be a hard turn NW when it does make that second LF

I think we see the models continue to trend away from that hard stall and NW turn....

 

[Metwannabe]

Little surprised we didn't get a jog/wobble N or even NNW with that deep convection on the W/S/SW sides possibly tugging it that way. Instead looks like a jog east

 

[JHS]

I think we see the models continue to trend away from that hard stall and NW turn....

Hopefully not, because we sure need the rain in the southeast. After this the models are dry right through day 16.

 

[SASQUATCH]

First time in my life I ever experienced a real Tornado. I'm near Davie in Cooper. Craziest Winds that bent trees one way as it was coming from Miami Gardens, and the opposite way as it was leaving west of Davie. Shook the house a bit. My brother had a couple of trees fall in the backyard, and power went out.

The rain was also insane. The lack is overflowing into backyards, and this was the first time I've ever seen my streets flood.

Obviously, I've called all my friends already to tell them about it.

Glad you’re safe


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[SASQUATCH]

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[Metwannabe]

Hopefully not, because we sure need the rain in the southeast. After this the models are dry right through day 16.

Just stop