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Tropical Hurricane Ian
- Thread starter severestorm
- Start date
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- Tags
- tropical
If the center is under there .. already above 15N .. this will have big implications downstream and tomorrows runs could have the final adjustments and we can zone in on an actual area
ForsythSnow
Moderator
From what I can tell, the center looks to be about where the red X I put is. There's a clear swirl component on the last few frames around there. It could be a little NW of there as well but it's not above 15N yet unless recon confirms it in a little bit.
This. 
Fountainguy97
Member
A 940mb Miller A. I'm all in.
NoSnowATL
Member
.
Cat 5 seems high, maybe Cat 4 if it tracks for the east boys but Cat 1-3 possible for the western tracks.
NoSnowATL
Member
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Almost 0 chance this makes it even west of AL with the setup we have no matter what the fine details end up being. Higher chance it cuts the state south of tampa than goes to LA
NoSnowATL
Member
Probably right but that Tom guy seems smart.
Yeah that ridge to the west blocks how far west it can go. There seems to be an alley for this to move through
How does this even define CAD though? I'm not an expert, but isn't this just a result of cooler, dryer air being pulled in on the northwest side of a strong low pressure system? You have the same cooled air west of the mountains, and there are no mountains in southern Alabama for any damming.
"Classic cold air damming is usually initiated by strong high pressure moving eastward toward New England or Eastern Canada following a cold air outbreak. The cold air flows out over the eastern United States as the parent high becomes established over eastern Canada or New England. Ridging will appear on the MSLP chart east of the Appalachians as cold air becomes entrenched and surface pressures rise. In most cases, an area of low pressure exists west of the mountains and weakens as cyclogenesis occurs over the Gulf or Atlantic coastal areas. This first area of low pressure acts to enhance the pressure gradient, which strengthens the dam. The coastal cyclogenesis initiates onshore flow, overrunning of moist air, and increased precipitation. The classic cold air dam is usually the most difficult to scour."
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There is a very pronounced spin here. BTW, Recon looks to be on the way, so lets hope it helps and we get a good center fix.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
CAD is just cold air falling down the mountains due to the position of high pressure and low pressure. That image you attached is kinda wonky lol, got me confused for a second.How does this even define CAD though? I'm not an expert, but isn't this just a result of cooler, dryer air being pulled in on the northwest side of a strong low pressure system? You have the same cooled air west of the mountains, and there are no mountains in southern Alabama for any damming.
What
Tornadocane
Member
I can't believe we're talking about CAD in September. I did love epic CAD events in NE New Jersey, because they were so unreliable given my proximity to 40-45 degree water that'd blow from SE and E. Those poor souls on Long Island missed out on so many 2-3 foot snowstorms. We had one CAD event in NJ that was like a 1,000 year event in which 10" of sleet covered the ground with a quarter inch of freezing rain.
Does this CAD scenario have the effect of drenching areas along the cool, dry boundary?
Does this CAD scenario have the effect of drenching areas along the cool, dry boundary?
Tornadocane
Member
The Vorticities are stacked at this point, so I expect to see a blow-up as we head into DMAX.
North Atlantic - 500mb Vorticity - Latest Available - Large Scale
tropic.ssec.wisc.edu